Oral Answers to Questions

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Thursday 7th November 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr McLoughlin]

What I said to my hon. Friend the Member for Lichfield (Michael Fabricant) in my original answer was that the consultation for phase 2 is still ongoing and it would be wrong of me at this stage to pre-empt it. I know that my hon. Friend the Member for Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy) will be making strong representations through the consultation process, and I will consider them in due course.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

Pursuant to the question asked by my hon. Friend the Member for Lichfield (Michael Fabricant), I know that the Secretary of State takes these matters very seriously, but does he agree that where mitigations are small scale, such as those proposed by my constituents in the Knox Grave Lane community, HS2 should be able to move ahead with them quickly and not give conflicting messages to the community affected? I have written to him on this matter. Will he give the letter careful consideration?

[Mr McLoughlin]

Of course I will consider any points that my hon. Friend has written to me about. Consistency in HS2’s responses on these lines that directly affect people is very important. I am disturbed to hear that inconsistent advice has been given by HS2, and I will want to look into it.

High Speed 2 (Ancient Woodlands)

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2013 Westminster Hall

[Michael Fabricant]

I thank you, Mrs Osborne. That is, indeed, what I am getting on to.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

I am sure my hon. Friend agrees that it is good news that the Government will reconsider the property bond, as we just heard from the Minister. However, does he agree that they must deal with blight now—because homes and, indeed, ancient woodlands are being blighted now—rather than in the future, when the line is built.

[Michael Fabricant]

That is absolutely right. My hon. Friend and I are affected by phase 1 of the route. We have been living with this issue since before 2010, and my constituents have been living with it too. The issue is, therefore, urgent, and it needs to be dealt with sooner rather than later. However, let me get on to the main subject of the debate.

The compensation packages must be the same for both phases, because it would be totally wrong for people living south of Lichfield, who are affected by phase 1, to be treated differently from those in the north of my constituency, who are affected by phase 2.

The Woodland Trust has indicated that the preferred routes for both phases will cause loss or damage to at least 67 irreplaceable ancient woods, which are home to 256 species that are of conservation concern. Some lessons have been learned in the design of the phase 2 route, because the most devastating environmental impact occurs in the construction of the London-to-Lichfield route, or phase 1. However, that alone will damage 21 ancient woods, while noise and vibration will affect the delicate balance of a further 48 woods within 100 metres of the line.

Ancient woods are lands that have been continuously wooded since 1600. They form only about 2% of our land. Their unique, undisturbed soils form the UK’s richest habitats for wildlife. They just cannot be translocated, and, once destroyed, they are lost—in effect, for ever.

We cannot credibly lecture other countries on deforestation while taking a cavalier approach to the loss of our own equivalent of the rain forest. Ironically, given their support for such a destructive route, the Government fully recognise the unique place ancient woodlands hold in our society. The forestry policy statement published earlier this year notes:

“England’s 340,000 hectares of ancient woodlands are exceptionally rich in wildlife, including many rare species and habitats. They are an integral part of England’s cultural heritage and act as reservoirs from which wildlife can spread into new woodlands.”

I agree.

As I indicated, my constituency is unique in that it will suffer the double whammy of construction during both phases of HS2. Phase 1 passes between Lichfield and Whittington below Fradley junction. Phase 2 joins the phase 1 route just below Fradley junction and travels through the constituency towards Stafford, passing Colton and the villages knows as the Ridwares. The phase 1 route will continue beyond the junction with phase 2 to join the west coast main line. The damage it will do is heartbreaking.

As a result of such extensive construction, three ancient woods in the constituency would be severely damaged. The line will pass directly through Ravenshaw wood, Slaish wood and Black Slough wood, while Vicar’s coppice, being only 62 metres from the line, would be damaged by noise and vibration during its construction—damage that, as I said, is irreparable.

[Michael Fabricant]

I have pleasure in agreeing with the hon. Gentleman, and I hope indeed that the Minister will deal with that issue. The simple answer is no, it is not too late. I hope that the Government will rethink the route, because in my view it should not carve its way through previously unspoiled countryside, cherished by the communities who live in harmony with it. If it does, it will cause environmental damage not only to southern Staffordshire, as I have described, but to other sensitive areas such as the Chilterns area of outstanding natural beauty. The Under-Secretary of State for Justice, my hon. Friend the Member for Kenilworth and Southam (Jeremy Wright), wanted me to point out, as, being a Minister, he cannot do so today, that South Cubbington wood in his constituency will be damaged too.

Not only does the plan fly in the face of common sense and environmental progress; it transgresses the Government’s own policies on protection of ancient woodland. Indeed, the forestry policy statement of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs states categorically:

“Protection of our trees, woods and forests, especially our ancient woodland, is our top priority.”

[Christopher Pincher]

I am obliged again to my hon. Friend; he is very kind. He rightly mentioned that south Staffordshire and its ancient woodland are affected by the proposals. He mentioned Kenilworth and Southam, and between there and Lichfield is the Bourne valley in the Tamworth constituency, where ancient woodland will also be affected by the proposed route. The effect on the midlands, coming on top of the toll road and the extension to the A5, is damage to much ancient woodland. The Government must recognise that.

[Michael Fabricant]

As ever, my hon. Friend makes his point powerfully and well. I hope that the Minister has listened to what he said. He is right to say that the west midlands has suffered, and I think that it has suffered in a way that has not been replicated in other parts of the United Kingdom.

In May, I tabled a question asking my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for his own assessment of the impact of the proposed HS2 route on ancient woodland. The response that I received in the Official Report on 6 June at column 1224W seemed, sadly, to indicate a belief in Government that such destruction is a price worth paying. It also noted that certain mitigation measures were being proposed, including the construction of a tunnel to avoid one ancient wood and movement of a line to minimise land take within another. That is simply not good enough. When we consider the vast sums of public money being committed we realise that the damage is inordinately large. As a minimum, mitigation should be proportionate and applied comprehensively for any ancient woodland lost or damaged as a result of the project. That should be based on the Lawton principles on habitat networks and landscape scale impact already enshrined in the Government’s widely welcomed natural environment White Paper of 2011. If, as it is claimed, HS2 is meant to be a world-class transport project, it should demonstrate world-class practice when it comes to the avoidance of damage and the showcasing of the very best practice in mitigation.

Further insult has been added to injury by the publication of a poorly written, half-finished environmental statement, which neglected to include crucial ecological surveys and assessments that are required for communities to respond effectively. The environmental statement sadly misunderstands the complexity and national significance of the habitats being damaged. For example, the summary states that

“at present there are no route-wide significant effects on habitats”.

Extraordinary. That is clearly not the case, given the national significance of ancient woodland, which is recognised in the national planning policy framework. I tabled another question in May—it appears at column 1224W in the Official Report of 6 June—about what discussions were taking place with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on minimising the impact of construction on ancient woodland. The evidence of the environmental statement is that there has been far too little such discussion, and the result is a statement that pays mere lip service to environmental protection.

It does not need to be this way. Done properly, HS2 would provide the Government with a golden opportunity to showcase the very best of British construction. However, if it is to be the world-class and truly green transport solution that it purports to be, far greater respect for the natural environment needs to be demonstrated, or the opportunity will sadly be lost.

In the light of the impacts that I have highlighted, I call on my right hon. Friend the Minister, and the Government, with whom I have had the honour of serving, to look again at the proposed route for HS2. In opposition, as I have said, my party championed a route that followed existing transport corridors, a tried and tested method used across Europe, which minimises environmental damage. I know that phase 2 of the route is an attempt to do that, but of course in southern Staffordshire it is not possible, because of the need to link to the existing and most environmentally damaging route: phase 1. That policy position is now, ironically, receiving favour from the current Opposition party, whose route the coalition Government have now adopted. It is incredible.

I call on my right hon. Friend, rather than cutting a destructive swathe through previously unblemished countryside, to think again and deliver a route that better respects the environment we all treasure. I hope that in his answer he will address the following six questions of which, Mrs Osborne, I have given him prior notice—so he has no excuse not to answer. He is waving his speech, so I hope he will answer these questions in detail: first, will he look further at how the loss of ancient woodland can be minimised? Secondly, what assessment has been made of how many hectares of ancient woodland will be lost? Thirdly, how much of the £33 billion—of course, that sum has now gone up—will be spent on seeking to avoid loss of woodland and on the creation of new woodland as part of the mitigation process? Of course, I pointed out earlier that ancient woodland cannot be replaced overnight. Ancient woodland is woodland formed in 1600 and before.

High Speed Rail (Preparation) Bill

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Wednesday 26th June 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr McLoughlin]

If my hon. Friend will allow me to make a bit more progress, he will find that I am going to be very open with the House and put all this out into the public domain. I want to be as open as I possibly can.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

rose—

[Mr McLoughlin]

I give way to my hon. Friend, who I met yesterday—I think, but the days are getting a bit blurred at the moment.

[Christopher Pincher]

They are getting blurred for us all. I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for giving way and for yesterday meeting my constituents from Hints, Weeford and Drayton Bassett to discuss their concerns about compensation and mitigation. He has rightly referred to the great concern that people have about the compensation and mitigation that is available. In setting a budget for phase 1, will he prevail on HS2 to be as efficient as possible so that money can be saved and spent on mitigations in Staffordshire?

[Mr McLoughlin]

The meeting that I had yesterday with my hon. Friend and his constituents was very useful, and I gave them an undertaking to look at some of the points they made. I have had varying reports on how some of the public consultations have gone. I am determined that we improve the way in which they are conducted so that people get more reliable answers on the points they are making, and as quickly as possible, although sometimes these things take a lot of time if particular requests are made as to routes and the like. I thank my hon. Friend for behaving very constructively in the points that he is making.

Oral Answers to Questions

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Thursday 25th April 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Burns]

I always try to provide leadership, Mr Speaker. I fully understand the valid point that the hon. Lady makes, but there are consideration problems with her proposition. HS2 Ltd did consider whether Stratford should be the primary terminus for HS2 services and others. Its advice was that locating the principal HS2 terminus outside central London would not meet the needs of the majority of the passengers who will use the service or make best use of the wider London transport network. There would also be physical problems with the need to build an additional 10 platforms, given the geographic size of the site at Stratford.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

My concerns about HS2 will come as no surprise to my right hon. Friend, but is he surprised at the concerns of UKIP, which, quite apart from believing that every last Bulgarian and Romanian is about to hitchhike their way to London, is opposed to HS2, whereas in 2010 it did not support just one high-speed line, but three?

[Mr Burns]

My hon. Friend raises a very interesting point. As you will know as a politician yourself, Mr Speaker, if one makes promises, they must have some validity and credibility, and one must have the ability to fund them. As my hon. Friend rightly said, the UKIP manifesto at the last election, which you probably read more than most of us, Mr Speaker, stated that it would:

“Invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”.

It really is extraordinary—

--- Later in debate ---

[Tom Brake]

I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for his question, but I must point out that that is not a ministerial responsibility. It is a matter for the House of Commons Commission, and I am sure that its representatives will be listening carefully to this exchange and that they will want to take suitable action.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

6. What plans he has to improve the quality of parliamentary scrutiny of Government expenditure.

[The Leader of the House of Commons (Mr Andrew Lansley)]

The Government are keen to promote better financial scrutiny and would welcome discussions on how best that can be achieved. As Leader of the House, I hope that I can work with colleagues in the Liaison Committee and across Government to ensure that the scrutiny of Government expenditure in this House promotes efficiency and value for money in all Departments.

[Christopher Pincher]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for that answer, but may I press him further and ask whether he sees a role not only for the Public Accounts Committee but for Select Committees in scrutinising Government and departmental expenditure?

[Mr Lansley]

I do indeed see such a role. Select Committees have a responsibility in relation not only to the policy of the Departments that they scrutinise but to the Departments’ expenditure. It is fair to say, however, that there is a variable focus among Select Committees on the extent to which they scrutinise the expenditure of their Departments, but I hope that we can increase the extent of that scrutiny through the Estimates process. Also, as a member of the Public Accounts Commission, I know from the matters that we have discussed with the National Audit Office that the NAO has already made itself available to some Select Committees to help them with that process, and I hope that we can encourage more of that in future.

High Speed Rail

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Monday 28th January 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr McLoughlin]

I am very pleased that the hon. Gentleman is so welcoming of the development. High Speed 2 will stop just short of York, but it will obviously be served by it. One of the things that we want to look at with this project is how we get regeneration in areas. This should open up huge potential, especially around station sites, for the north to benefit from connections with the rest of the country.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

I became aware that the proposed Leeds alignment will run just a few hundred yards from Wilnecote and Stoneydelph in my constituency when I looked at the HS2 website this morning. Will my right hon. Friend agree to meet me to discuss mitigations in the Tamworth area if his initial preferred alignment becomes his final preferred alignment? More particularly, can we discuss other, better alternatives?

[Mr McLoughlin]

I am certainly prepared to meet my hon. Friend and discuss alternatives that he may wish to put forward. I hope that he will realise that in deciding on the route through his constituency we have tried to follow an existing major road network. Of course, I will meet him and listen carefully to any representations he has to make.

West Coast Main Line

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Monday 29th October 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr McLoughlin]

Over the next eight months, which we are talking about as the extension to the franchise, and the following five-month changeover period, if that is necessary, we will obviously be talking with Virgin and other companies interested in running the interim two-year contract, but I think that the jobs of the people who operate the trains will remain the same under any operator.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

Commuters in Tamworth will be relieved to hear that at least my right hon. Friend knows where his Department is. Will he make clear the steps he can take to ensure that the next round of franchises are not unduly delayed? In particular, can original requests for proposals made by bidders who choose to tender again be requested again so that that the review process is expedited?

[Mr McLoughlin]

I can assure my hon. Friend that I am very keen to get on with franchising, but he would expect me to wait for the recommendations of the Brown report and the Government to respond to it in a measured and appropriate way. I can give him the assurance he seeks: I am very keen to get on with franchising.

Civil Aviation Bill

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Monday 30th January 2012 Commons Chamber

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

I am pleased to speak after the hon. Member for Bolton West (Julie Hilling), some of whose points I agree with, but I am also intrigued and somewhat amused by her introductory remarks and by those of the hon. Member for Garston and Halewood (Maria Eagle), who said that there was an elephant in the room and that the Bill has been in gestation for six years. Such gestation would bring tears to the eyes of the biggest elephant, and if the Opposition believe that this Bill is being rushed they would do well to remember that they had six years in which to bring a Bill forward and to make it an Act. Clearly, however, they had other things on their mind at the time.

[Gavin Shuker]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Christopher Pincher]

I am prepared to give way to the doughty defender of Luton South.

[Gavin Shuker]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, but I fear that he is being slightly disingenuous in mixing up what Opposition Members have said. The Bill was clearly designed to be introduced in the next Session, but it has been brought forward in this Session, because there is no legislation—because many Bills from this Session are at the other end of the corridor, in the other place.

--- Later in debate ---

[Christopher Pincher]

I am grateful for that intervention. The hon. Gentleman clearly intends to carry on for Luton South where Lorraine Chase left off; we have brought forward this Bill, and we have heard what the Secretary of State had to say.

I welcome the Bill, which is timely, because we all know that aviation is an industry that is as important to Britain as it is maligned. It is important because it employs 1 million people throughout the country, sustains a tourist industry employing 2.6 million people and generates about £9 billion of Treasury receipts every year, plus all the Treasury receipts that it generates by making our economy work more effectively and better.

There is no doubt in the minds of operators that they want better regulation. We want regulation that puts passengers first. We want regulation that ensures that security in the age of the terrorist with trainers is sharpened and honed. We want to ensure that transparency at the Department for Transport, at the CAA, among operators and at airlines is the best that it can be. However, we do not want regulation that loads unnecessary bureaucracy on to airport operators or that drives up costs that are of no benefit to the travelling public or to operators that simply want to make a fair buck by doing better and more efficient business.

Birmingham is the airport in my neck of the woods. It has one runway and carries 8.6 million people a year. It could double its capacity without changing its infrastructure in any way. It has a plan to extend its runway so that it can carry bigger planes with more passengers, more fuel and more baggage for longer distances, as far as the far east. That could extend its carriage capacity by up to 27 million passengers a year. At that point, it would begin to compete with airports such as Gatwick.

[Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Con)]

Presumably, the high-speed link from London will work in reverse and people will be able to get up to Birmingham and increase the airport’s capacity, making it a south-east England airport.

[Christopher Pincher]

My hon. Friend is trying to draw me into the trap of discussing High Speed 2. Birmingham airport carries only 40% of the passengers in its catchment area, so it could extend capacity without picking up passengers from the south-east or elsewhere.

The operators are concerned—the hon. Member for Bolton West touched on this—about changes that might allow the CAA to increase costs by a third on undesignated airports such as Birmingham. In designated airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick, those costs can easily be passed on to airlines. In undesignated airports, they cannot. That places a burden on those airports as they develop their plans of expansion and as they try to build the regional economy, such as that of the west midlands.

It is striking that Britain, with a population of 60 million, has only one formal hub airport, whereas Germany, with a population of more than 80 million, has five hub airports and plans to expand that to six. It seems that the Germans recognise the importance of aviation in building their regional economies. I hope that we will do the same. As we take the Bill through Parliament, as the Secretary of State and Ministers consider it and as it goes through the Public Bill Committee, we must ensure that the clauses do not disadvantage regional airports, which can be so important in building our regional economies.

I will make two more points, thanks to the injury time that has been granted to me. The first relates to environmental protections and reports. We all agree about the importance of demonstrating the effects that aviation can have on carbon emissions and about ensuring that proper environmental reporting is built into the Bill. I ask those on the Treasury Bench to ensure that the information that they wish airports to develop and deliver is not already available through the Department of Energy and Climate Change or reports that are produced by the Department for Transport. We do not want to overburden airports or demand that they duplicate information that is produced already.

My final point relates to the levy, which has already been touched on. Operators are worried that demanding 10% in penalty clauses because of events that are outside their control can place a significant burden on the airport. They say, and I agree with them, that when there are extreme weather conditions or when planes are grounded, the decision on safety is also made by the airlines. Should the airlines not, therefore, also be responsible for carrying some of the penalty clause that is imposed? If that is not appropriate or possible because airlines can choose whether to take slots and can go elsewhere—it is much more difficult for airports to move—is it not possible to reduce or abolish the penalty, so that we do not place undue burdens on our airports?

My hon. Friend the Member for Crawley (Henry Smith) said that we are a trading nation. Of course, we are an island trading nation. Aviation is therefore all the more important to our competitiveness in Europe. It provides the quickest and best connections to markets for our goods and services. I hope that when the Government further consider the Bill and when it goes through the Public Bill Committee, we will place front and centre the importance of balancing and regionalising our economy, and ensure that aviation plays a part in that. We must protect and promote our regional airports. I look forward to the Minister, in winding up, saying that we will.

High-speed Rail

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Tuesday 10th January 2012 Commons Chamber

[Justine Greening]

We believe that it will have the potential to free up significant capacity. As for the potential that this will create for the conventional rail network on new routes and new station stops, Network Rail has been asked to do that work and will report to me later in the year. I look forward to reading that work with interest, and to sharing it with the House.

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend will be aware that many people believe the present exceptional hardship scheme to be inconsistent and unfair. Can she confirm that her proposed refreshed hardship scheme will be consistent and will ensure that anybody affected by blight who wishes to move will be properly compensated? Those people should not be penalised for living in the wrong place at the wrong time.

[Justine Greening]

I have been keen to look at what we can do to improve the effectiveness of the hardship scheme. My hon. Friend will know that we have received around 240 applications from people. With the finalised line of route, some of those will obviously be from people in areas that will now see real mitigation. The point of the consultation, which will happen in the spring, is to ensure that we finalise those details. I very much urge him and his constituents to respond to the consultation, so that we can reach a final version of the scheme that delivers what we want, which is a fair deal for the people affected.

High Speed 2

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Thursday 13th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Stephen Hammond]

No, I am sorry; I have only a minute and a half left.

There is a myth that local services will suffer as a result of High Speed 2. That is not true: local services are already at capacity. We need to do other things, but high-speed rail is not part of that argument. That is a diversionary tactic. There is also a myth, which has been brought up time after time today, that there is a £30 billion cost. Yes, of course the scheme will cost £30 billion, but Crossrail is currently costing us £2 billion a year. Crossrail will have a huge impact on London and create huge benefits for the commuting area of London and the south-east. If we look at the cost of Crossrail against the annual cost of High Speed 2, we see that they are actually a substitution for one another. It is quite clear that we can invest the £2 billion a year in rail infrastructure that the Government have costed for without affecting other investment.

The case is a good one and there are overwhelming reasons for it. The network is at capacity, the economy will benefit, the scheme will be at least carbon-neutral and, given that it does not start until after 2017, High Speed 2 is affordable.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mrs Villiers]

I will not just yet, because my time is short.

HS1 is an example of how high-speed rail can be designed in a way that mitigates and minimises the impact on local communities. Equal care will be needed in phase 2 with the link to Heathrow. Again, we will be careful to listen to the concerns of the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) and his constituents.

My hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) spoke about the predictions of passenger growth for HS2. The consultation document forecasts that passenger demand will roughly double for long-distance services on the west coast main line, as was said by my hon. Friend the Member for Pudsey (Stuart Andrew). That projection is over 30 years and is based on modest growth rates of about 2% a year. If anything, those numbers are cautious when one takes into account the fact that demand between London and Manchester rose by almost 60% over the four years to 2008 and that overall long-distance demand has grown every year since 1997 at an average of 5% a year. There is a wide-ranging consensus, which has been echoed by many Members today, that the southern end of the west coast route will be completely full within 10 to 15 years, or possibly sooner as was pointed out by my hon. Friend the Member for Wimbledon (Stephen Hammond).

[Christopher Pincher]

Will the Minister say why she persists in using version 4.1 of the “Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook”, which Sir Rod Eddington says offers wildly inaccurate demand predictions? Why does she not use version 5.0, which is waiting on her desk for her to sign off? It offers much more reasonable demand projections and would allow her to pursue options other than HS2.

[Mrs Villiers]

We believe that version 4.1 gives a more robust analysis of passenger demand forecasts. I am confident that whichever methodology one uses to predict passenger demand, we face a capacity time bomb on the west coast main line. Even our efforts in undertaking the biggest programme of rail capacity improvement for 100 years will not be enough to meet our long-term capacity needs.

We desperately need additional inter-city transport capacity, as was pointed out by my hon. Friend the Member for Cambridge (Dr Huppert). No responsible Government can afford to sit back and ignore this problem. High-speed rail provides the best way to meet that pressing economic need. Contrary to the allegations of its detractors, HS2 is not and has never been a project designed to shave a few minutes off the journey time to Birmingham; it is about delivering the inter-city transport links that are crucial for the future success of our economy in this country, in both the north and the south.

High-Speed Rail

Christopher Pincher Excerpts

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Christopher Pincher (Tamworth) (Con)]

I shall adhere to your injunction to be brief, Mr Walker. I thank my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) for securing the debate, and also my hon. Friend the Member for Lichfield (Michael Fabricant)—who is not in his place—for leading the charge to secure an inquiry from the Transport Committee into HS2.

I assure my hon. Friend the Member for Weaver Vale (Graham Evans) that I shall not invite him to any of my supper clubs in the near future. My constituents are not nimbys. I have spoken to several hundred of them over the past months, and I saw about 80 last Saturday. They tell me that if it can be demonstrably proven that the business case stacks up, if there are proper mitigations in place in their vicinity, and if they get fair and reasonable compensation for the loss they suffer, they will, through gritted teeth, accept the proposal. The trouble, as we have heard today, is that the business case has not been proven, mitigations are not yet known—the route was announced last December but in the Tamworth area we are still waiting for a roadshow, which we will not get until June—and, although we have had hints about compensation for blight, we still do not know anything about what we might get. People are understandably very concerned.

I will not dwell on the value side of the business case and the holes that have been found in it during the debate, because my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire has already done that very eloquently, as have other Members. However, let me say this about it: the net value ratio, which has been significantly reduced by HS2 Ltd—so it accepts that it is wrong—still uses as its basis for generating demand the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, version 4.1, which Sir Rod Eddington has said is out of date, uses incorrect views on saturation of demand, future technological advances and competition that might affect demand, and that we should be using version 5.0. I look forward to my right hon. Friend the Minister’s making it clear in her remarks that that particular handbook will be used to generate demand, and that HS2 Ltd will be directed to do its sums again.

I want to focus on the cost side of the business case. Other Members have pointed out that one should never believe a Government when they talk about how much they will spend on capital infrastructure projects. Phase 1 of HS2 has been identified as costing £17.1 billion, but phase 2, the Y-shaped link, adds a further £13 billion or so, taking the total cost to more than £30 billion. We have heard that those figures might be right—they might be wrong—but the fact of the matter is that some figures that do not appear in the cost side should be included.

One of those key figures is the cost of blight. From Eversholt Street down by Euston all the way up to Whittington, businesses and properties are blighted by the proposed railway. They are blighted now, because if people in those places manage to sell their properties, they will lose 30%, 40% or even 50% of the value, and stamp duty accruing to the Treasury will fall. That is not costed in the business case, but it means that estate agents and solicitors will do less business, and vendors’ buying power will be reduced. None of that is in the cost side of the business case, and it ought to be.

Then we come to compensation. We have heard, and I have it in a letter—which I do not have in front of me, so I will not put words into his mouth—that the Secretary of State has indicated that the Government will look at innovative ways of providing some form of compensation. That needs to go into the business case, so that we know the true cost of the proposition, which I think could run into several hundred million pounds, further reducing the proposed net benefit ratio and further undermining HS2 Ltd’s case for building the railway.

I shall end here, as I am conscious that other Members wish to speak. I call upon the Minister to look again at the business case proposed by HS2 Ltd, and again, and more carefully, at Rail Package 2. There is still time for her to change her mind, and I hope that she considers doing so.

[Mr Charles Walker (in the Chair)]

We have 30 minutes before I call the Front-Bench spokespeople and we have eight colleagues who want to speak, so do the mathematics.