The Economy

Angus Brendan MacNeil Excerpts

Tuesday 11th December 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Angus Brendan MacNeil (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)]

The right hon. Gentleman will know that the rebate scheme has been a success. When will mainland areas of Scotland be included? There are already such schemes in continental mainland areas, so why is there a delay in its introduction in mainland Scotland? Areas such as Caithness, Sutherland and Argyll need it—and need it quick.

[Danny Alexander]

I am grateful for the hon. Gentleman’s endorsement of the current scheme as a success. I hope he will spread the word to his constituents and ensure that the credit goes to the appropriate place.

To win the argument at European level for an extension of the scheme, we must pass the same test and provide the same evidence to justify including such remote areas. We are working with local authorities in various parts of the country to gather evidence to support our case. As the hon. Gentleman will recall, we must take that evidence to the European Commission. If it approves our proposal, it must in turn be approved by all 27 EU member states. There are a number of hurdles and a significant process to engage in to gather evidence.

[Mr MacNeil]

rose—

[Danny Alexander]

If the hon. Gentleman will forgive me, I will make progress. Many hon. Members wish to speak in the debate.

There has been good engagement between the Treasury and the FairFuelUK campaign, which has pressed its case very strongly. I welcome its engagement.

The Government are on the road to cutting the deficit we inherited, but we are also building a fairer society. The distributional analysis that we publish shows that that continues to be the case, despite the tough choices we have made. It is worth pointing out that, under the previous Government, the Treasury never published detailed distributional analyses of its decisions, but under this Government the Treasury publishes them at every fiscal event. The analyses show that the top 20% of households continue to make the greatest contribution. In fact, the cumulative impact since the June 2010 Budget of tax, tax credit and benefit reforms shows that households in the top 10% see the greatest reduction in their income, both in cash terms and as a percentage of net income or expenditure.

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[Danny Alexander]

I am grateful for the hon. Lady’s support—I take support from wherever it comes these days.

The Government have taken sensible further steps to restrict pensions tax relief. The decisions the Government are taking are not easy, but as a country we must live within our means. The scale of the problems this country faces means that the period of fiscal restraint must continue for longer. That is why the Government will shortly set out spending plans for the financial year 2015-16. I will carry out a spending round in the first six months of next year to set those budgets and ensure that we continue to build a sensible long-term plan for the country’s finances. We will need to find an extra £10 billion of savings from Departments in the spending round. That will mean more difficult choices, but they are also responsible choices as the coalition continues to work to restore stability to the UK economy.

We have heard this afternoon and in Question Time that some criticise the autumn statement. The division in British politics is very clear. Government Members live in the real world. We understand that times are tough and that there is no endless supply of money, and recognise that the right and responsible action is to take the difficult decisions to ensure we can live within our means. Labour Members appear to live in a fantasy world. They still believe that they ended boom and bust, despite the events of the past five years. They still refuse to apologise for the mess they created and fail to be honest with the British people about the tough decisions that any party in government would have to take.

It will come as no surprise to hon. Members that I will not take advice from the Labour party, which wrecked our economy because it allowed the country to become too dependent on revenues from the City of London and paid too little attention to the rest of the country. Labour insulted pensioners up and down the country by increasing the basic state pension by 75p, and insulted 5 million of the lowest-paid workers by increasing their income tax bill with the abolition of the 10p rate.

[Mr MacNeil]

rose—

[Danny Alexander]

I will not give way—I will finish my speech shortly.

The Labour party thought it was right that private equity managers should pay a lower rate of tax on their earnings than the person who cleaned their office, and insulted hard-working people and businesses up and down the country by failing to crack down on tax avoidance and evasion in 13 years in office.

This Government face some of the most serious decisions we have had to make in our recent history. We are recovering from a decade of debt, we inherited the largest deficit since the second world war, and we have had to face a multitude of problems abroad. However, we continue to take simple, sensible steps towards recovery. We continue to build a strong, sustainable economy and to build a fair society. I commend the autumn statement to the House.

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[Rachel Reeves]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman did not like the answer to his intervention. Fair enough—I would not be pleased to hear that my Government were spending an extra £14 billion on welfare because of their failure.

This year the economy will shrink by 0.1%. The Chancellor’s two gap years—two years of painful cuts, more borrowing and no growth—are a shocking indictment of a failed plan. He stands up and tells the nation that the British economy is healing and that he is equipping Britain to win in the global race, yet over the 24 months since the spending review the UK economy has grown by just 0.6%. In the same period, the US economy grew by 4.1% and the German economy by 3.6%. Helpfully, the International Monetary Fund’s world economic outlook data allow us to put together a league table of 184 countries based on total growth between 2010 and 2012, so we can now analyse our performance in the global race that he describes with this Government at the helm. Of those 184 countries, where do Members think Britain comes? We are 158th. It is a relegation battle. We are behind Togo and Namibia, Albania and Macedonia, but there is no need to worry—apparently we are hot on the heels of Mali, Samoa and Fiji! We are the worst performing G7 country, apart from Italy. In the global race, Britain is well and truly in the slow lane with this Chancellor at the helm.

[Mr MacNeil]

Does the hon. Lady agree that the context she has rightly given the House is the reason the Scottish referendum on independence will be won in 2014?

[Rachel Reeves]

I will let the good people of Scotland make their decision when the time comes, but I believe that we are stronger together—stronger united than divided.

The worst aspect of the Chancellor’s two wasted years is the long-term damage being done to our economy. Every month of inaction, every failed initiative and every growth forecast downgraded is another hammer blow to the work force, our businesses and our national infrastructure. The skills and motivation of British workers are going to waste, with one in three of our 2.5 million unemployed out of work for more than a year and 3 million of those with jobs wanting to work more hours, but unable to find the work. In reality, we are falling behind, and the Chancellor has nobody to blame—not the snow, not the royal wedding, not the eurozone.

I agree with the chief economist of UBS, George Magnus—[Interruption.] [Hon. Members: “He’s gone!”] Obviously the hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) does not want to hear what the chief economist of UBS has to say. I will send him a copy of Hansard. George Magnus said that the Chancellor’s excuse

“falls under the category of ‘Sorry Miss, the dog ate my homework’”.

He also said that

“the problem I think that the Chancellor has with the eurozone is that we are just like them. We have this single-minded focus on austerity and the lack of growth is basically crippling our ability to meet our fiscal targets.”

I agree that the Chancellor and his economic plan are to blame. Two and a half years of austerity, two and a half years of this Chancellor, and what do we have to show for it? We have no growth, more borrowing and a tragic waste of time. [Interruption.] It is good to see the hon. Member for Spelthorne in his place again.

A year ago the IMF warned:

“If activity were to undershoot current expectations and risk a period of stagnation or contraction, countries that face historically low yields (for example…the United Kingdom) should also consider delaying some of their planned consolidation.”

At that time the IMF was predicting 1.6% growth this year; now the OBR tells us that the economy is more likely to shrink by 1.6% this year.

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[Mr Darling]

I will address that point later. It is an important point, and I do not believe we should just sit back and hope that growth returns. The shadow Chancellor and many others both inside and outside the House also do not believe that the Government’s approach is right.

We are heavily dependent on money that is coming in from a financial transaction. In addition, the OBR has now found that by 2016-17 our revenues will be £30 billion less than it forecast in March. That is a huge gap, which will have to be filled.

What should we do? Whenever the Opposition suggest that perhaps the Government could do a little more, the Government parties—the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats—always say, “That’s all about borrowing more.” This Government are borrowing £212 billion more than they said they would not because we are spending money on projects and so forth, but because of failure—because our revenues are down. That is why we have got this gap.

When we eventually have a recovery, this country will need infrastructure. Over many years, we spent a lot of money on transport and energy. That was the sort of spending the Government say should not have been made, but we now know it was desperately needed, and we need to invest more in infrastructure, as well as get debt and borrowing down. We must invest in education, too.

On energy, the Government’s policy is completely contradictory. We are getting different signals every day of the week. On transport, I say again that it is not good enough to have no airport policy until halfway through the next Parliament, when we will not be able to do anything as another election will be coming up. That is not the right signal to send to our country, let alone the outside world.

Investing more in infrastructure projects would be one way to get confidence back. Confidence was trashed two years ago. If anyone were running a business now, would they hire more people or open a new production facility? No, they would not, because it appears that the economy will be bumping along the ground for another five years or so. I again remind Members of what has happened to Japan. People say, “We would never be like that,” but Japan has had non-existent growth for 15 years.

[Mr MacNeil]

Some commentators—at one time Ben Bernanke, and lately notably Paul Krugman—have talked about higher inflation targets for Japan, and also for the UK and other countries that are suffering a downturn. What is the right hon. Gentleman’s opinion on that? Does he, too, support higher inflation targets as a way of stimulating recovery?

[Mr Darling]

There is a lot of debate about that issue. I do not have the time to address it in detail, but I have said—including in a programme that will be broadcast tonight—that I think the Bank of England needs to examine its role, because for a long time we have said its job is purely to target inflation, yet central banks across the world are now also targeting growth, and perhaps we should consider whether we should formalise that role. Mark Carney was an excellent choice as the next Governor, and I hope he will think about that.

Talking about Governors, the current Governor, Sir Mervyn King, made an important point in New York last night when he talked about the G20, which had done so much at the height of the crisis in 2009, showing the determination that people expected in order to prevent the entire world economy from going over a precipice, and said that that spirit was now dead. He is absolutely right about that. It is important that we in this country, along with President Obama, now that he has been re-elected, look again at what we can do collectively as part of the global community to try to get the world economy not only to resolve some of the problems we face, but get growth going again.

That inevitably takes me on to Europe and the eurozone, because it is a tragedy that a legal structure and an economic structure that could do something about getting growth going again is simply failing to do so. Greece is not sorted out yet; another attempt was made a couple of weeks ago, but as far as I can see it leaves Greece with even more debt than it had. Until the Spanish banks are bailed out, they will simply hold back the whole of the eurozone, and the sooner Spain goes to get the bail-out it needs, the better it will be. Then we need to deal with the question of austerity. Austerity on its own does not work. Those who are interested may wish to know that there is an interesting article by Olli Rehn, the economic Commissioner, in today’s Financial Times, in which he just asserts that it is going to work, in the same way as this Government assert that austerity is going to work—frankly, I do not see it. We need to use our engagement in relation to the eurozone and to the European Union to try to persuade countries that unless they act together, in the same way as we did three or four years ago, although in a slightly different context, we and the eurozone countries are simply going to bump along on the bottom for years. If that is the case, the human cost is that we are condemning tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people in this country, and perhaps millions of people in the European Union, to unemployment and low standards of living. If we do that, future generations will never forgive us.

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[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Absolutely. The former Prime Minister has said that on a number of occasions. I have been on record as saying that the first Labour Administration between 1997 and 2001 was, I freely admit, a very conservative fiscal Government. As the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West well knows, during those four years the budget was never in deficit. We ran two years of surpluses and the budget in the other years was balanced. It was only after 2001 that the disaster occurred, that the wheels spun off the car and we suffered under a profligate traditional Labour tax and spend regime. I use the phrase “tax and spend” very gingerly, because the taxation never covered the spending.

That was precisely the reason why the Government ran those deficits—to pay for their projects, to pay for greater spending. They were required to borrow money. I remember that in 2001 one of their favourite columnists, Polly Toynbee, said that Labour would have to tax more in order to spend the money. At least that was an honest position. She was suggesting that Labour should try and balance the budget at a higher level of spending. I and my colleagues might want to balance the budget at a lower rate of spending, but both Polly Toynbee and those on the Government Benches would accept is that it is a road to disaster to borrow yet more money in order to spend on grand projects or whatever utopia the Government want to build in this country. We now have the consequence of this recklessness—of Government Ministers at the time spending more and more money and running 3% deficits.

[Mr MacNeil]

Can the hon. Gentleman tell us for how many years since 2001 the UK has been able to pay its way?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I can answer the hon. Gentleman very directly. With reference to our public finances, we have been borrowing money every year—every single year. It is likely that even if we are able to eliminate the structural deficit by 2018, this country will have seen nearly 20 years of continual deficits. This is an appalling legacy that Labour has left the country. Since the end of the second world war, we have never run 20 years of continual deficits, which we will do as a consequence of Labour mismanagement and old-fashioned incompetence.

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[Mr Weir]

The Scottish Government have been putting more and more money into capital investment. [Interruption.] It has not been decreasing. They have been putting money into capital investments that matter, despite the overall budget from Westminster having been cut.

The Scottish Government have been taking the action that the former Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Edinburgh South West (Mr Darling), called for earlier. In June, they announced a £105 million package of investment for so-called shovel-ready projects. Conventional capital investment has been boosted by a £2.5 billion pipeline of infrastructure projects that is being delivered through the non-profit distributing model. The Scottish Government recognised long before the current Chancellor did that the model of private participation in infrastructure was fundamentally flawed, although Labour does not seem to have cottoned on to that yet. A total of £700 million has been switched from the resource to the capital budget to support capital investment. The Scottish Government are supporting a range of innovative finance initiatives such as the National Housing Trust.

It appears from what he said this afternoon that even the former Chancellor has changed his original views and now supports the increase in capital expenditure on infrastructure, although that has not prevented his Labour colleagues in Scotland from continually attacking it; such is the way of politics, I suppose. Indeed, their leader has announced a cuts commission—an initiative whose only backers appear to be their friends in the Better Together campaign, the Conservatives.

[Mr MacNeil]

Has my hon. Friend noticed, as I have, that the main cheerleaders for Labour in Scotland’s cuts are the Tories in Wales, who welcome them on board with the same ideological baggage?

[Mr Weir]

My hon. Friend makes a good point. The Conservatives in Scotland have also supported the cuts commission, so it appears that they are all cutters together rather than better together.

The SNP Government in Scotland have been very active in ensuring that we rebalance our economy with investment in new green initiatives. The Government down here often talk about that, but we have seen little evidence of it. Indeed, the proposals in the Energy Bill give cause for concern about the way in which this Government look at green investment and whether there is to be investment in new green energy or whether the Treasury is winning the battle and we are going down a different route.

This is important to Scotland because the renewables industries now support more than 11,000 jobs in Scotland, and that figure is growing. There have been significant investments in green energy. Gamesa chose Leith for its new UK offshore wind manufacturing plant, which will create up to 800 jobs. Burcote Wind has announced plans for a £l billion investment creating up to 600 new jobs. Global Energy Group has announced that Nigg skills academy will deliver training for up to 3,000 people over three years. Scottish Power has announced the creation of 300 skilled jobs as part of a £5 billion investment in Scotland’s grid, and it is also investing £6.5 million in grass-roots skills development.