Autumn Statement Resolutions

Baroness Winterton of Doncaster Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Several hon. Members rose—]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. We have eight more speakers, so there is more pressure than I thought. I am afraid that Members have not been sticking to the advisory guidance of speaking for only 10 minutes, so I will now impose a nine-minute limit to aid colleagues in the length of their speeches.

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[Several hon. Members rose—]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. I am going to be very generous and see what happens if I put the time limit back up to 10 minutes, although I may have to reduce it again.

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[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller). I understand the points he made about taxation. There have to be limits on how we tax people, families, businesses and so on, but the position we are in today underscores the need to deliver sustainable economic growth, because that will deliver the tax receipts that allow us to invest in our public services.

The autumn statement is clearly framed with the next UK election in mind. While some of the measures are welcome—I particularly welcome the announcement of the reallocation of the Inverness and Highland city region deal, allowing £20 million in funding for the Corran ferry in my constituency, which will be well received by the community in the Ardnamurchan peninsula and others—overall the autumn statement is a missed opportunity to deal with the structural weaknesses in the UK economy, while recognising the pressures felt from the cost of living crisis.

Let us reflect on the headroom referred to by the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire. In large measure, that has been caused by the inflationary aspects on taxation receipts. Much of the gloss of the headline tax cuts will wash away when people realise the harsh reality: inflation will erode the fantasy that the Chancellor is making folk better off, and, as have heard, fiscal drag is real issue. While much of the focus is on the short term, where is the vision to sustainably grow the economy for the long term? Interestingly, when we look at the OBR book, we find that business investment is forecast to fall from 10.9% of GDP this year to 9.7% by 2029. The illusion that we will see an explosion of investment growth is not borne out by the analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

We can debate the source of the pressure on public finances, but absence of growth fundamentally caps the growth in tax receipts that would allow us to invest in infrastructure and our public services, and ultimately pay down our accumulated debt through the delivery of growth. The harsh reality is that the United Kingdom is falling down the league tables for investment and growth, which affects all of us here and is all too apparent to all our constituents and communities.

Let us look at the OBR forecasts: GDP growth of 0.6% for this year, 0.7% for next year and 1.4% for the year after. That is an average of 1.4% over the six-year period forecast. I do not know how the Chancellor classifies a high-growth economy—but, my goodness, this is not it. It is a fantasy if those on the Tory Benches believe that this autumn statement delivers high and sustainable growth; quite simply, it does not.

By comparison, let us look at the International Monetary Fund forecast for the US: growth of 1.6% this year, 1.1% next year and 1.8% the year after, and an economy that has outpaced the UK on average by 1% a year over the last decade. That is the reality of how the UK has fallen behind over the period of Tory Governments since 2010. The UK has failed on growth since the financial crisis and, on today’s forecasts, the UK will continue to fail on growth. To quote the phrase to the Chancellor: “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Let us look at the reality of policy failure in broken Britain. The Resolution Foundation suggests that the current parliamentary term is on track to be the worst for living standards since at least the 1950s. The OBR suggests that real wages will only get back to the 1998 level in 2028: two decades of no growth in real wages—yet you wouldn’t believe any of that when you hear the bùrach coming from the Tory Benches. Why do they not just admit that over the course of their Administration—and thank goodness it is coming to an end—people have got poorer?

We can talk about the tax burden and we can talk about the investments they have trumpeted, but the harsh reality is that what we have seen is a massive, massive mismanagement of the economy. I ask colleagues across the House to dwell on that, and the Chancellor and his Treasury team to accept the failure of financial management that has resulted in such poor outcomes. My goodness, what a disgrace. With our debt and taxation burdens, people have got poorer. Those on the Government Benches should look at themselves in the mirror and at what they have presided over.

It is not just a failure of leadership and management in this parliamentary term; the problems run much deeper. In particular, we have been stuck with a low-growth economy since the financial crisis of 2008. Low growth, low investment and low productivity growth led to that lost decade and that squeeze on living standards.

When we think back to the period post the financial crisis, the only game in town was quantitative easing; much of it was required, but there were two failures. The complete misalignment between monetary and fiscal policy for much of the period meant that the circumstances to create sustainable economic growth could not be delivered. The failure of that lies at the door of this Tory Government. Then the continued printing of money through the QE scheme was one, but not the only, cause of the increase in inflation that we have seen. The Government say that they are not responsible for the increase in inflation to 11.1%—of course recognising the independence of the Bank of England, but let us not kid ourselves about the alignment that takes place—but much of that increase in inflation was a failure of policy, in particular a failure of policy at the time of covid. Let us accept some responsibility where it is necessary to do so.

The Government had some cheek congratulating themselves on the decline in inflation when the increase in the first place was driven by policy failure. Although the growth in inflation is falling, let us please not forget that it is hurting ordinary folk. We know about the continued increase in food prices, the cost of energy, and the painful choices that people are having to make. The lack of direct support to counteract all that is hitting home for millions of folk who are struggling to make ends meet.

Tomorrow the energy cap will be announced, and it is expected to increase from £1,800 to £1,900. That is the reality of what is happening to people—that increase in cost and the impact on consumers. Of course, there is also the fact that the Bank of England is warning that interest rates will remain high, and millions will face the impact of rising mortgage costs yet to come. And let us remember that the international markets attach a risk premium to the UK; our interest rates will remain higher for longer than our international counterparts, and that has been the case for a while now.

What we see with the tax cuts that are being trumpeted today is that our UK economy is very much based on a trade and current account deficit. What happens in the end is that the currency takes the hit and investors say they want a premium to hold UK assets. Again, that is the failure of long-term planning for the UK economy—not just the disastrous Budget last year, but the penalty of being in the UK, and for us in Scotland of being in broken Britain.

Let me return to the future and to the questions about vision and the sort of economy that the UK is. Fundamentally, the UK is a trading economy, not a manufacturing economy. When we are discussing this autumn statement and the prospects for growth, we cannot ignore the self-harm of Brexit or the lost growth opportunity that impacts the UK to the tune of 4% of our GDP—when we are struggling for growth, we actually inflict that self-harm on ourselves. Just look at the OBR forecast for growth. Where is the plan to change this? Where is the green industrial strategy?

I am delighted that the Scottish Government have been presented with an industrial strategy—it is sitting with the Government now—because we recognise the enormous opportunity that there is to increase our green energy output fivefold and to create, between now and 2050, 325,000 jobs. What a contrast it is to have a Government who will make sure that we have that just transition, who will prioritise investment in net zero, and who will make sure that we tackle fuel insecurity. The Scottish Government estimate that there are 830,000 fuel-poor households in Scotland—a third of all our households. It is a scandal that energy-rich Scotland is paying the price for the failure of UK energy policy. It clearly demonstrates that, while we have the power in Scotland, Westminster has control—and in Scotland, we pay the price.

Let me wrap up. The UK Government should have reinstated the £400 energy bill support scheme. Protecting people from the cost of living crisis should have been a priority in the autumn statement. My colleagues in the Scottish Government, through initiatives such as the Scottish child payment, are helping to drive young people and families out of poverty. We understand the importance of using our capital funding to strengthen the conditions for economic growth, but we are having to do that while our capital budget is being constrained and cut by the UK. That is the real-terms cost to Scotland of being held back by broken Britain—

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. I do have to pull people up if they go over. I call Maggie Throup.

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[Rachael Maskell (York Central) (Lab/Co-op)]

I concur with the commitment of the hon. Member for Erewash (Maggie Throup) to public health measures in today’s statement. It is fascinating, however, that when given a rare chance to make life better for millions of people—people just about managing, or people not managing but really struggling—the Conservatives turn on them, as we heard today, making their lives even harder.

The economic success we heard about is glossy, but we are coming down from last year’s disastrous Budget. Inflation has halved this year because it went so high last year, causing our constituents to have exceptionally high mortgage rates, which they are paying for day by day. Borrowing is at an all-time high, just shy of 100% of GDP, and the economy will be £40 billion smaller in 2027 than was predicted in March this year. That shows that the economy is still fragile and volatile, and even after 13 and a half years of this Tory Government all we have seen today is money being moved from welfare to the wealthy. Do we wonder why people are worse off when we see such decisions being made?

I believe economic policy—how we tax and spend—must focus on creating a fairer society, alleviating poverty, tackling injustice and inequality and helping people to be independent yet collectively contribute to the vital services we depend on across our society. Public sector services hardly got a mention today, yet they are on their knees. Council, health and public service leaders across the country will therefore be baffled by the decisions the Chancellor made.

We have seen 13 and a half years squandered, with poor economic productivity, poor investment in our people and planet, and increasingly poor social outcomes. We have more people sick—7.8 million on waiting lists—more needing a home and more in need, and we have 14.5 million people on the edge, in poverty, in debt, struggling with heating, rent and food. And of course there was no promise of additional help today. We must remember that 4.3 million children in York and across the country now live in poverty; 18% of pensioners are counting the pennies to get by and we have a harsh winter ahead of us, with the energy price cap due to go up tomorrow and a tough year beyond that. Food prices are up about 25% on April 2022 figures, while gas prices are 60% and electricity prices 40% higher, yet wages have not matched that growth. In York, residents face the fourth-highest rents in the country.

While the fall in inflation is an important factor, because it will have an impact in the long term, none of us will ever forget how we got to where we are today. The economy needed the Chancellor to do more than just talk about cutting the revenue into the Treasury; the autumn statement should have been more about redistribution and, sadly, it was lacking in that—not least when the national insurance measures that he introduced will bring the greatest benefit to the richest people, who pay more national insurance, meaning that working people continue to pay more.

Turning to those working people, we know that working hard really matters, and I want everyone to have the opportunity to use their skills and talents to the full and contribute to society, and in return receive just reward for their labours. However, our public services are on their knees. York Council has seen £11 million in cuts this year and £40 million in the last four years. York’s schools are underfunded—the 17th worst in the country—and vital services are absolutely desperate.

We must understand the consequences of the cuts that the Chancellor talks about, not least those to national insurance. We are working hard in York to create opportunities, with exceptional schools, colleges and universities, a Labour council, businesses, charities and public services. Despite our calling out for two and a half years for funding for BioYorkshire, which will create 4,000 good-quality green-collar jobs, the Government have not brought forward the investment long promised, alongside UK Research and Innovation. Likewise, the creative sector, particularly the visual effects sector, has a real impact on my constituency, and I welcome a deeper dive into that area, but why have we not seen that money bought forward until now?

All we see are services cut back, underfunded, understaffed and just not working. People are paralysed by the pressures of life, suffering with mental, economic and physical stress. They are simply not coping. Rents are too high and wages too low; there are bills to pay, but no money left and no hope.

I want to make three points. First, we have no spare social housing, as I said to the Chancellor. York is one of the worst places in the country to access housing, with rents in the private rented sector the fourth highest in the country. The broad market area is too broad. As a result, people in my constituency, even after receiving £650 a month in local housing allowance, still have to pay an additional £983 on private rent. They cannot afford to live in my city but, if they move away, it will skew the economy even more. We need the broad rental market area to be reviewed. I urge the Minister to take that away and ensure that it happens, because it really matters for my constituents.

Secondly, I am sickened by paragraph 3.25 of the autumn statement. People at their most vulnerable do not engage with the DWP because they cannot, because life is too hard for them. To introduce such punitive measures as those we have heard about from the Chancellor is a complete disgrace. It is ill-conceived, immoral and economically illiterate, because those people will end up elsewhere in our public services, creating even greater demand. They will end up in our NHS in desperate need, not least if the Government take away their prescriptions. What an utter disgrace to do that to people who are already sick and struggling. I will fight the Government every step of the way on that measure, and I trust that my party will, too. That is not how we should treat human beings who are struggling and suffering. The Government should be ashamed of themselves, not least because the Chancellor then tried to pitch those individuals against other people who are struggling—people who come to our country for sanctuary. I could not believe that I was hearing that in this House—shame. We have to change that. I trust that the Labour party will be at the forefront of that charge.

On the DWP, the bedroom tax is still hurting people, sanctions are still hurting people, and the two-child limit is still hurting families in my constituency, as is the benefit cap. If we reversed those measures, we would see a big number of people move from poverty into being able to have dignity in their lives. Surely, this place is meant to achieve that.

Thirdly, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s work on the basket of essentials guarantee—providing every person enough money to survive on, with £120 a week for a single person and £200 for a couple—would really make a difference for people who are dependent on social security. I often hear Members on the Treasury Bench ask, “How would you afford it?” Well, according to the University of Greenwich, a wealth tax on people with an accumulated wealth of over £3.4 billion, for example, would bring in £70 billion. We must remember that the 50 richest families in our country own 50% of the wealth.

Change is so achievable. We must think about priorities. Politics is about morals, justice and fairness, but we have not seen that today. I know that it will not be long until we have a Labour Government, who will be here to serve, give hope, and do everything humanly and economically possible to turn things around. We believe in fairness, honesty, justice and equality, and we will deliver them.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I am afraid that I will have to take the limit down to nine minutes.

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[Catherine West]

As you will know with your lifetime of experience in social care and other sorts of public services, Madam Deputy Speaker, the good councils—I have to say they are mainly Labour councils—have introduced the living wage for all their contracting and subcontracting. That makes an enormous difference in the local economy. I challenge every single council to try to push for more from its procurement pound.

In the survey results from all the places that I visited over the summer with my wonderful staff and an ex-BBC journalist who helped me to get the survey right, some 55% felt that their quality of life had deteriorated since the pandemic. The British Red Cross research reports “Life after lockdown” and “Lonely and left behind” found that 41% of UK adults feel lonelier since the start of the initial lockdown. Millions are going a fortnight without having a meaningful conversation. The pandemic showed the importance of tackling loneliness, and it is clear that the Government strategy on loneliness simply is not working. The Red Cross said that

“tackling loneliness should be built into Covid-19 recovery plans”,

and:

“Governments should ensure those most at risk of loneliness are able to access the mental health and emotional support they need to cope and recover from Covid-19.”

These are the very people whom the Chancellor was trying to address when he said that there were increased rates of worklessness in people over the age of 50. I am sure that access to mental health services and emotional support is very much a part of that puzzle.

As well as mental and physical health and wellbeing, we must also consider the impact that grief, bereavement and the economic struggles that people are facing have on people’s sense of wellbeing. Some 51% of respondents to my survey said that they are unable to participate in events because they are online, and that also needs to be looked at, because the digital divide is real and desperately needs to be addressed by local authorities and all Departments. Some 45% said that it was harder to see their GP than before the pandemic. Some 48% said they had experienced a reduction in NHS services, particularly in podiatry, chiropody and physio. Those are crucial services that people need to keep mobile, which reduces the cost to the NHS and the queue of people waiting for care in the NHS.

Before I conclude, I will make one point on the importance of primary care and that relationship with a GP. If individuals are not on the internet and they go to see their GP, eight minutes is not really enough. In some cases, they are not even getting eight minutes every six months. So many people are living without seeing a human being day-to-day. For 13 years now, social care has lacked the funding and attention that it deserves, with £8 billion lost from adult social care budgets. In my constituency, I hear from residents having to pay thousands of pounds for their care or care for a loved one. There are high levels of unmet or under-met care needs. The Association of Directors of Adult Social Services estimated that around 246,000 people were waiting for a care assessment in August 2022.

The final finding from my survey is that 60% of the people I spoke to in all different sorts of care settings said that they felt lonely or isolated, and 34% rarely had visitors. The loneliness strategy simply is not working. It is having a real effect on our economy and on our older folk. I hope that can be addressed as this debate goes forward.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

As the hon. Lady’s speech was a little shorter, I shall allow the final speaker 10 minutes—just to prove that it is not always bad to be the final speaker.

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[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. Before I call the Minister, may I say how important it is for Members to return to the Chamber in good time for the winding-up speeches? There are still some Members who are not present. It is extremely discourteous not to get here in good time to hear from the Opposition spokesperson and the Minister, and I hope that that will be conveyed to those who are not present.