Ethiopia and Somalia

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Monday 7th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

The United Kingdom’s position is consistent and clear that, notwithstanding our long-term relationship with Somaliland, it is absolutely an issue for Somalia to resolve. I cannot be clearer about that. We respect the territorial integrity of Somalia and the steps that it will take to resolve this issue itself.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, in our helpful debate on Sudan just before the latest Recess, it was generally agreed that the maintenance of a degree of stability in the Horn of Africa was important to the security of the Red Sea routes, which are of key importance to the UK. Can the Minister therefore assure the House that the Government will approach this region on a strategic basis as a whole, rather than treating the different crises piecemeal?

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

That is a very important point and is what I have been trying to get across—that you cannot separate some of these disputes, whether long-standing or more recent. As the noble and gallant Lord said, they need to be dealt with strategically and holistically, because the security and stability of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa more generally depends on us taking that approach.

Ukraine: Military Support

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Thursday 12th September 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

My Lords, the defence of Ukraine is the defence of the United Kingdom. For two and a half years, Ukrainians have bravely and fiercely defended themselves against Russia’s full-scale invasion. Putin’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity began with the illegal annexation of Crimea 10 years ago. He did not stop there, and he will not stop until he leaves Ukraine. On the issue of funding, which the noble Baroness is right to raise, she will know that a strategic defence review is under way. Her comments are noted as part of that, but it would be wrong of me to pre-empt it. My noble friend Lord Robertson will be providing information at the appropriate time that will help answer her question.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, several months ago, President Macron said that Europe must do whatever is necessary to ensure that Russia does not succeed in Ukraine, irrespective of political decisions in America. What evidence is there of that aspiration being given any substance—or is the security of Europe to rest upon the whim of the American electorate?

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

My Lords, I do not think that it is helpful to speculate on the US election at this time, but I commit to the noble and gallant Lord and to the House that our support for Ukraine, regardless of what may or may not happen in the American election, is ironclad and unwavering.

Ukraine

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Thursday 5th September 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

My Lords, I completely accept my noble friend’s right to challenge, disagree and ask questions, both in this Chamber and outside it. I am very glad that we live in a country where that is encouraged and is possible with no consequences. It is for Ukraine to decide when it wishes to negotiate and on what terms.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, does the Minister not find the wording of this Question rather odd, referring as it does to Ukraine and “its war with Russia”, as if there were some moral equivalence between the two? Further, in any discussions that the Government have with other European countries, will they please stress that, in combat, the only real alternative to dominant firepower is to throw more bodies into the battle? Restrictions for whatever reason on the nature and scale of weaponry supplied to Ukraine will not only imperil its tactical situation but will almost certainly ensure that even more of its citizens are killed in Russia’s war of aggression.

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

I share the noble and gallant Lord’s thoughts on the wording of the Question from my noble friend. I too noted the emphasis on Ukraine’s “war with Russia” and I disagree with that way of looking at this conflict. The UK has provided £7.6 billion-worth of support, including £3 billion for 2024-25, and we are proud to stand alongside Ukraine as it defends its territory.

Ukraine

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd September 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

The noble Lord will know that we cannot comment on operational matters, but I note his question and what lies behind it. He asked about the shadow fleet. The UK has so far sanctioned 15 ships of the Russian shadow fleet, which is enabling Russia to evade international sanctions. In the margins of the European Political Community summit, 44 countries and the EU signed our call to action to tackle this issue.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, whatever the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, it is clear that, in the longer term, we will face a hostile and aggressive Russia with expansionist ambitions that go well beyond Ukraine, and which is clearly more than willing to use force in pursuit of its objectives. In light of this, is not the recent trailing of potential cuts to the UK’s defence capabilities because of budgetary pressures irresponsible, irrational and extraordinarily dangerous?

[Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)]

My Lords, noble Lords will be aware that we have made our commitment to 2.5%. A review of all departmental spending is happening and we all know the reasons for that, but our commitment to the support of Ukraine is steadfast and non-negotiable. We have committed £3 billion annually until 2030-31.

NATO: French Nuclear Weapons

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Thursday 9th May 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, I am not the spokesman for President Macron—I speak for the United Kingdom Government. What is important is that we show unity of words, purpose and action, when it comes to fighting Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, our military capability, conventional and nuclear, depends crucially on industrial capacity, which it is clear that we in this country have allowed to atrophy to a dangerously low level. What progress are the Government making in increasing the capacity of nuclear enterprise in this country to meet the demands of the future—both military and civilian?

Sanctions: Russian Individuals

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Thursday 25th April 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, I will not go into the area of what we may or may not do when it comes to our sanctions regime. My noble friend is quite right: I am very proud of the fact that it was this Government who introduced the Magnitsky-style sanctions, as they are often called, when it comes to the egregious abuse of human rights. It is right that we have acted in this respect. We work very closely with our key partners to ensure that those who commit these egregious abuses of human rights are held accountable.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, when considering secondary sanctions, which may well have an important effect, will the Government take great care to ensure that we do not drive those countries that we are actually trying to woo closer into the embrace of Russia and China?

BBC World Service

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Tuesday 12th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton (Con)]

I do not have the information on how many other countries are involved, but I know that we continue to support the Media Freedom Coalition. I back up what the noble Baroness said: it is essential that we have journalists reporting from these areas. While I do not want to go into any specifics, we have also helped a number of different news organisations with COGAT and others when they have needed to leave. It is very important that we make sure they are supported in this way.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

Russian disinformation is rife in the western Balkans and having a malevolent influence there. The Foreign Secretary will recall that the chair of your Lordships’ House’s International Relations and Defence Committee wrote to him suggesting, among other things, the restoration of the BBC Albanian service, which was scrapped in 2011. Does he agree that it would be foolishly short-sighted not to use one of the most powerful soft-power tools that this country possesses and not to target it against the greatest immediate threat to the peace and security of Europe?

[Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton (Con)]

The noble and gallant Lord is absolutely right that the BBC is an incredibly strong voice in terms of media freedom, our values and the things that we stand for. What has been happening over recent years is a transformation into a more digital service, because more and more people now listen to radio services on their mobile phone or through other internet devices. The 42 language services are still going; they have not been closed, but a number of them have switched to digital. However, I completely agree with him on the need to combat fake narratives in the western Balkans. It is not just about the BBC, good though it is; it is also about making sure that we help countries such as Kosovo and Bosnia in their rebuttal of the false Russian narrative. That is about training, expertise and funding as well as about the BBC.

Foreign Affairs

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Tuesday 5th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Ashton of Upholland, and to benefit from her considerable personal experience. In recent years, the Government have undertaken two detailed analyses of foreign policy: the 2021 integrated review and the 2023 refresh. It was, and is, difficult to argue with any of the individual propositions made in either document.

The problem, though, is that it can be difficult to discern how the analyses can or should be translated into a strategy for action—into an appropriate balance between ends, ways and means. As the most reverend Primate has observed, the reviews are strong on ends and, to some degree, ways, but weak on balancing these with means.

In such a complex and challenging world, it is inevitable that the UK will need to pursue many objectives and respond to many challenges. For example, it is clear that China represents a major threat to the liberal world order from which we have benefited so much since 1945. It is clear that the stability of the Middle East is as important to us, and as fragile, as it has been over recent decades. It is clear that climate change and the scramble for scarce resources are transforming the Arctic from an area of co-operation to one of contest, as pointed out in a recent report from your Lordships’ International Relations and Defence Committee.

But, for us, the issue of overwhelming significance is the threat posed by Russia. The 2023 refresh was, it seems, inspired largely by a perceived change in circumstance resulting from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022—but Putin’s war of aggression began in 2014, not 2022. The fact that many people woke up to the implications only two years ago does not make this a new challenge. The 2023 document did, however, make clear at last that

“The most pressing national security and foreign policy priority in the short-to-medium term is to address the threat posed by Russia to European security”.


That is quite right. Protecting this nation must be the UK’s top strategic objective, and Russia is the clear and present danger.

The 2023 refresh also points to the main ways through which we should work towards such an end: deterrence and, if necessary, defence through NATO. But what about means? Here I am afraid the review abandons analysis in favour of soundbites, and this weakness is reinforced by a fundamental misunderstanding in the supporting arguments. The review says:

“In addition to reinforcing the UK’s ability to deter and defend, we must also address the risk that misunderstanding and miscalculation could lead to large-scale military conflict”.


This treats deterrence and miscalculation as separate issues. In reality, they are very closely linked. If deterrence is to be effective, it must leave no doubt in the mind of a potential aggressor about the unacceptable costs of launching any attack. They must be crystal clear about the ability and will of the defender—in this case NATO—to absorb an initial attack and to strike back overwhelmingly. It is a question not of fine balances and narrow margins but of undoubtedly superior capacity.

We should keep this in mind when we consider what the 2023 refresh has to say about means. It talks about recent increases in UK defence expenditure in cash terms, but we all know how little meaning that has in the face of inflation, let alone when set against previous large reductions. On future increases, the Government have said that they aspire to increase defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP over time and as fiscal and economic circumstances allow. This is like someone muttering about one day taking out adequate insurance while their house burns down around their ears.

If the Foreign Secretary thinks this is somewhat extreme, let me quote his own wise words. He said that

“the lights are absolutely flashing red”

on the global dashboard. He added that

“it is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger and insecurity and instability in the world”.

That is spot on. But does he really think that a vague aspiration to increase defence expenditure to a level still far below where it stood as recently as 2010 is an adequate response to such a dire, but undoubtedly accurate, analysis?

The Economist recently said that European leaders, including in the UK, need to raise defence spending to

“a level not seen in decades, restructuring … arms industries and preparing for a possible war”.

It concluded that this work had “barely begun”. I look to both sides of the Chamber when I say that we had better get on with it before it is too late.

Ukraine Conflict

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Wednesday 7th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend, who provides a great deal of insight on this. The debate about Ukraine across our country reflects the very freedoms that the Ukrainians are fighting for—the freedom to debate, challenge and provide insight. I thank my noble friend for providing his own insights.

The UK led on this last summer by hosting a conference on reconstruction. Various figures are being put forward, but the challenge is that there can be no effective assessment of the overall reconstruction plan until Russia pulls back from the areas it has occupied. It has caused damage environmentally, not just in the buildings and lives lost. At the Ukraine Recovery Conference last year, the UK announced £250 million of new capital to de-risk investments in projects to support economic recovery. Once that full assessment has been made—tragically, it will run into billions of pounds—we will need to stand up collectively, and the private sector will play a role. At a time when Ukraine is facing these challenges, it is vital that we stand at one and support its energy renewal, reconstruction and war effort. We stand with Ukraine.

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, in a recent speech in Sweden, President Macron said that Europe needed to do whatever was necessary to ensure Ukraine’s success, irrespective of what political decisions were made in America. What discussions are His Majesty’s Government having with France, Germany and other European allies to help turn such rhetoric into reality?

[Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon (Con)]

My Lords, we always listen carefully to what President Macron says—France is an important ally in every sense, and we are working closely with France and our European partners. We are aware of the discussions going on across the ocean in the United States but, equally, we need the US to be part of this effort, and the reconstruction effort. The debate we had only the other week illustrated this large component. Not only are we making that case to our European partners but we continue to advocate the case for Ukraine in the United States.

Ukraine

Lord Stirrup Excerpts

Friday 26th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Stirrup (CB)]

My Lords, during our debate on Ukraine last September, I cautioned that there would be no rapid military resolution to the war there and that we should be prepared for a protracted and messy conflict. Events since then have served only to reinforce this view.

Perhaps the most important operational development over the past year has been the extent to which Ukrainian forces have been able to threaten Russia’s use of Crimea as a secure base for its maritime forces. This is undoubtedly a major achievement. We should not underestimate the strategic significance of Crimea to Russia. For Russia, its security is of much greater importance than relatively small movements of the front line elsewhere in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russian consolidation of its positions in the Donbass and the south of the country poses a serious challenge for Ukrainian planners. This is particularly so given the losses that the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered and continue to suffer on the front lines. Russian losses have been even higher but, of course, its resources are much greater.

We must face the fact that the nature of this conflict has changed, or perhaps not so much changed but become more obvious. It is a battle of wills between Putin and the West. His calculus is that a protracted campaign will become increasingly unpopular in the West and that the political will to sustain the financial and material costs will erode over time, with a consequent weakening of Ukraine’s military ability to resist. Putin no doubt believes, as others have said, that a Trump victory in this year’s American general election could be very helpful in that regard. The Defence Secretary agrees. In his recent speech at Lancaster House, he said:

“Putin believes the West lacks staying power. And since the future of the world order is at stake, we must prove him wrong”.


He went on:

“Old enemies are reanimated. New foes are taking shape. Battle lines are being redrawn. The tanks are literally on Europe’s Ukrainian lawn … the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core. We stand at this crossroads—whether to surrender to a sea of troubles, or do everything we can to deter the danger”.


If that were not enough, the Foreign Secretary has said:

“The lights are absolutely flashing red … on the global dashboard”.


He also said:

“It is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger, insecurity and instability in the world”.


I am with them but, given such a dire if accurate analysis of our situation, noble Lords might understand how much it jarred with me when the Defence Secretary also said that

“we have made the critical decision to set out our aspiration to reach 2.5% of GDP … on defence”.

Talk about an anticlimax.

Up to now, the UK has done well in its support for Ukraine. But if we are to prove Putin wrong about the West’s staying power, we must make the necessary sustained investment in defence capability and defence industrial capacity. With that in mind, it is worth remembering that the Iran-Iraq war—a brutal conflict that ended in stalemate—lasted for eight years. We cannot forecast the course of the war in Ukraine, but we should be thinking in these kinds of timescales. In that context, 2.5% of GDP is not nearly enough for defence, and we do not even have a commitment to reach that inadequate level—just an aspiration.

We are frequently told by the Government that they have delivered the largest increase in defence expenditure since the end of the Cold War. That may be, but it is only after imposing some of the largest cuts. As I have said before, you really cannot claim credit for helping someone to keep their head just above water when you pushed them into the river in the first place.

Another frequent argument is that how we spend the money matters much more than how much we have to spend. Nobody disagrees with the principle that money should be spent wisely, but try telling all the British citizens suffering from the recent significant rise in the cost of living that their problems are their own fault and that they would disappear if only they managed their money better. Improved efficiency can mitigate to some extent, but cannot eliminate, the damaging consequences of inadequate resources.

In his evidence to your Lordship’s International Relations and Defence Committee, the previous Defence Secretary admitted that the Armed Forces had been hollowed out over far too many years. He subsequently confirmed that defence needed more investment than the Government were prepared to commit.

This is not an issue just for the UK. If the outcome in Ukraine is as critical as the Government claim—rightly, in my view—the countries of western Europe simply cannot allow their safety and security to be subject to the vagaries of American politics. They need to increase defence expenditure significantly, expand defence industrial capacity and co-ordinate their efforts both to support Ukraine and to strengthen NATO more widely. As the Minister reminded us, together, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and all the other countries within NATO have more than enough economic and industrial muscle to overmatch Russia, even with the latter on a draconian war footing. What is required is the will to do it, and that is not yet evident. The UK should be offering a greater lead in this regard. We have to match our grand words with decisive and sustained actions, backed by the appropriate resources.

On Tuesday, we witnessed the introduction of the right reverend prelate the Bishop of Hereford. We have heard the words of a bishop’s introduction to the House many times, and perhaps we too often let them just roll over us. However, on that occasion I could not but reflect on the relevance and urgency of some of the phrases:

“considering the difficulty of the said affairs and the dangers impending … as you regard … the safety and defence of the said Kingdom … in nowise do you omit”.

The Government would do well to take this stricture to heart. As far as defence is concerned, there has been far too much omitting over recent years, and it has to stop.