RAF: Operational Conversion Unit

Lord Soley Excerpts

Tuesday 8th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

Yes, I can give the noble Lord that assurance. The potential opening of new bases in two particular parts of the world is certainly something we are looking at. But I assure the noble Lord that this will not impact on the procurement programme for the F35B.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

Can the Minister elaborate on his second answer, when he referred to the appropriate time for future decisions? Can he give us some indication of what is meant by “appropriate time” and when that appropriate time might be?

[Earl Howe]

I cannot be exact on that. We have either contracted for or have letters of intent for 48 aircraft, as I said earlier. Towards the end of that delivery schedule, clearly, we will need to look at the next tranche. That could be in four or five years’ time.

UK Defence Forces

Lord Soley Excerpts

Thursday 23rd November 2017 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Lord Soley]

That this House takes note of the case for maintaining United Kingdom defence forces at a sufficient level to contribute to global peace, stability and security.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

My Lords, in moving the Motion in my name, I should indicate that the amount of time available for the debate makes it very tight for speakers, so I will do my best to keep my comments relatively short. In doing so, I make clear that I do not intend to speak at any length on either weapons systems or troop numbers. Important as they are, there are many other speakers who are better equipped than me to speak on such matters. What I seek to do is talk about our defence strategy in relation to our foreign policy. We should start by recognising, as we always do, that defence is the handmaiden of foreign policy. I also recognise, because it is important to do so, that defence is important not only for war fighting but as a policy of war deterrence. That profoundly important issue is often underestimated.

My concern, like that of many others in recent years, is that we have a defence policy that seeks to be full-spectrum, but we are not putting up the necessary money to make that credible. History gives us plenty of lessons to show that there are few things more dangerous than the defence policy of a major power that has become incredible instead of credible. We are in acute danger of getting into that situation. In saying that, I echo comments made by many senior military experts in this country, and most important, those of many of our allies, not just the United States.

In recent years, we have seen a decline in our ability to fund our various systems to the level necessary to make them credible. I cannot overstate the importance of that point, and I know that many Members will speak to it in the debate. To put it bluntly, at the moment we are putting forward a defence posture for the United Kingdom that looks sophisticated, arguing—as the Minister has often done—that it is the fifth most expensive defence policy in the world, but we are not putting in the money to make it credible. One of the main messages I would like to get over in this debate is that although I look forward very much to the forthcoming strategic defence review, this is now such an important issue, particularly following Brexit, about which I shall say more in a moment, that we need to revisit it frequently over the coming year or two. This is a fast-moving situation and one to which we will not get a quick answer in one strategic defence review. I ask the Government to start thinking hard about how Parliament—indeed, the Government itself, most obviously—can think about this in the long term and be prepared to react to the changes that are taking place in the world.

The budget for defence should be increased. I know the Minister is likely to say that we aim to increase it to 2.5%, but if we are to maintain our current posture, we are more sensibly talking about 3%. My worry, which I will come back to, is whether we will be prepared to afford that with our economy, particularly in relation to Brexit. It is affordable, but will we be prepared to afford it? If not, we have to cut our defence posture to make it more relevant to what we are prepared to pay. I repeat: the most crucial thing is having a credible defence force, not one that people think is unlikely to be delivered effectively.

As I think most people have noticed, in recent years the world has become a much more unstable place, due to emerging new powers, which are rising very fast. To some extent, it is a success of the West that, over the years, we have seen a number of countries develop with good governance, even if it is not the type of government we would choose for ourselves. As a result, their economies are improving; as they do, they will spend more money on defence. That is one reason why we are unlikely to remain the fifth-largest spending nation in due course. Those new, rising powers are also challenging the status quo. History tells us that wars develop when there is a rapid change in the balance of power between nations. We know that, going back to the wars in Athens a couple of thousand years ago; we recognise that when there is a change in the balance of power between existing states, peace is at risk.

It does not follow that I am therefore full of doom and gloom that we are about to be launched into a major war. There are many checks now that did not exist before—on international institutions, the global economy and a range of such options—which make it less likely. Nevertheless, it is a serious danger; there is also a danger of major wars, in any event. We need look no further than the Middle East to see that, as sadly we so often have to do; the relationships there are changing very dramatically. If we look at the recent movement in Turkey, we see an example of a country moving away from its recent posture of close engagement with Europe and the West to a different role. Look at the development of the strange alliance emerging in the Middle East between Israel and the Arab states in the face of what they see as a greater fear—Iran. That conflict between Iran and the Arab states dates way back to the origins of the divisions in Islam, which caused so many problems for the Islamic community, just as the divisions in Christianity did. It would therefore be a mistake to put these problems down to any one religion; they happen in all religions. People do not always like it, but I often say that God is an idea but religion is an ideology and, like all ideology, subject to splits. Splits happen in religion and, unfortunately, people are prepared to fight and die for them. That is an important point that we sometimes forget.

The other reason to be concerned about instability is the rise of nationalism in the West, with the election of Donald Trump, Brexit in the UK, the situation in Turkey—as I have already mentioned—and other events. Nationalism is not something to be totally ashamed of, but it is something to be wary of. As someone born in the 1930s, although I do not remember the nationalism of that period, I am close enough to its history; having grown up during the Second World War, I have seen the effects of nationalism and how it can destroy communities, civilisations and nations. We need to be aware of that as another factor in change.

The third factor, which is incredibly important—I know that the Government take it seriously, but we will need to come back to it—is changing technology. We are all aware of cyberwarfare; we are increasingly aware of robots; we all know about drones; and we all know about intelligence, although the nature of that is changing rapidly. I shall give just a simple example. If I had longer, I might spell out others, particularly in robotic development. If we look at the use of drones, which I do not object to, in either Afghanistan or Syria, we see that they are effective in limiting civilian casualties, because otherwise air power or artillery are used less effectively. However, we should be aware that the technology that allows drones to be used in the way that we are using them can also be developed, and will be developed, by non-state actors, including by even very small groups. We should beware the dangers of such technology being used in existing civilisations and societies. In the age of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley, those early warnings were perhaps relevant to what we have to say.

I have already indicated that my preference would be for an increase in defence expenditure. I do not think there are any shortcuts to this. Some in my own party and elsewhere will say, “We need to get rid of Trident”. I have no problem with dealing with such issues multilaterally; I have every fear about doing so unilaterally, because major changes in the defence policy of a significant power inevitably have a knock-on effect on other powers. That is another factor that can increase the risk of war, which is why I say that defence is an important way of preventing war and not just of fighting it.

We need a radical review of our defence posture. One SDR will not be enough. Post Brexit, it is difficult to know what will happen. I have taken the view for a long time—since it happened, actually, although I think it was a mistake—that Brexit can be made to work, but we should recognise, first, that it will take a long time and, secondly, that we are underestimating its political impact. We all talk, quite rightly, about the economic impact, but the political impact is enormous. I had lunch with an old contact of mine in the Chinese embassy from quite a few years ago. He is now the first secretary, and he came along with the second secretary to meet me here. I asked him what China thought about Britain’s exit from the European Union. He gave a very quick and clear answer: “I think both the European Union and the United Kingdom have lost influence as a result of that action”. Whether we agree with him or not, let us please recognise that this view is common across the world. Let us bear in mind that it has been United States policy since the end of the Second World War to have Britain in Europe, because it saw Britain as a stabilising influence within it. It also saw it as a necessary bridge between the US and Europe. The problem, as I have said on a number of occasions, is that many Europeans, for very good historical reasons, with all the wars, occupations and defeats, saw the European Union as a politically emerging state—we might even say a superstate, although it is a wrong term—whereas the British always thought of it as a super-market. We did not see the commitment to the politics of Europe as they see it in Europe itself.

That change is profoundly important. It might mean that we have to accept that, in changing our defence policy, despite Brexit, we have to work much more closely with the European Union. I am not one who takes the view that Europe should not develop its own defence policy. It is important that we link it with NATO, but I do not believe that Europe will avoid developing the outlines—as they will be at first—of both a defence policy and a foreign policy. It is in our interest for it to do that; it is not in our interest to go back to a system where each state had its own arrangements. We often forget how relatively new the nation states are. The other day I saw that, until about 100 years ago, Poland was part of Austria. When we look at things like that, we should recognise that the way change happens in Europe can be dangerous.

I draw your Lordships’ attention to comments in the Library briefing on my debate made by Professor Chalmers, the deputy at the Royal United Services Institute. He points out that we need to look at,

“UK national security and requirements in the form of contributions, military and developmental”,

along with other allies. Secondly, and very importantly, he says that,

“a new SDSR would need to ask whether or not there should be a Pivot to Europe”,

the very point I was making a few moments ago. Thirdly, he says that,

“a new SDSR would provide an opportunity to review the case for, and against, a more global approach to foreign and security policy in the light of the exit deal”,

but also in light of the other issues I have mentioned.

I want a close relationship with the European Union—anyone in their right mind will want that—and it has to be political and economic as well. It does not mean that we do not have to exit the European Union, as the electorate have decided. What I want more than anything else from the next SDSR is a serious, in-depth look at the problems I have described. This is a major strategic crisis for the United Kingdom. “Crisis” may be too strong a word; it is perhaps more like what happened in the 1960s, as I remember well, when we looked, under Harold Wilson’s Government, at withdrawal from east of Suez and at cancelling advanced weapons systems, such as the TSR-2 and others, all of which we did because we were driven by the economics of it. The acute danger is that something similar is happening now but we are not facing up to it. We really have to get a strategy that works and that we have paid for. I beg to move.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Soley]

The noble Lord has just taken the words out of my mouth. I thank all noble Lords for their thoughtful and constructive comments. As usual, the noble Earl has made a thoughtful and encouraging response. But—and this is an important but—there is an acute danger that he and the Government are underestimating the concern that has been expressed for months now by very senior military officers, by various groups such as RUSI, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and others, and by many people among our overseas allies. That concern is real. If we duck it or ignore it, we will not do ourselves any favours.

Secondly, I simply make this point. I do not expect the defence review to give all the answers, certainly not to the questions that I raised in my opening speech, but I hope that it is a step on the road which we need to look at intensely carefully over the next year or two. We are in a bad place right now and we need to get into a better place.

Finally, I was pleased to hear the involvement of the noble Baroness, Lady Lane-Fox, because I would like to have talked more, as I did only a little, about the new technology. The reason Russia, China and North Korea—the three nations she identified—are using these technologies is precisely because they are still militarily weak in the face of the West. That will not last for ever. Russia still has a weak economy, but countries in that state use other technologies, which is what it is doing. It will not be just Russia, it will also be Iran fairly soon.

Motion agreed.

NATO: Member State Spending

Lord Soley Excerpts

Wednesday 1st February 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

My Lords, this debate takes place at a time of considerable instability in the world, but it is easy to forget that, apart from the horrors of Syria and aspects of the Middle East and Ukraine, the world is far more peaceful than it has ever been. The danger is one of complacency. I would not accuse the noble Earl who has just sat down of being a sycophantic Back-Bencher—I will leave him to decide that—but I am just a bit worried about complacency.

I raised two years ago the rapid rise in Russian defence spending—I think that at that time it was 10%. I was concerned that such an increase indicated why Russia was thinking of developing its potential. We have seriously underestimated President Putin’s intentions, particularly in Syria and to a considerable extent in Ukraine and elsewhere, as well as—and totally unexpected by me—in the world of cyber warfare. Those are serious threats to the stability of the world. One then has an unknown entity in the form of President Trump and an unknown situation in relation to Europe and Brexit. So instability should be our watchword. If instability exists—this goes back to something my noble friend Lord Touhig said in his excellent introduction—we should be mindful of the statement that if you want peace, you should prepare for war. We should perhaps bear that in mind, too, in relation to defence spending, because 2% is probably too low in the present circumstances. I know of all the economic difficulties, but if we want peace—which I think we all do—we must recognise that until human beings have better ways of keeping peace, this is probably the best way of doing it.

There is another point which is profoundly important. My noble friend Lord Touhig referred to pensions, particularly civilian pensions, and contributions to United Nations peacekeeping and so on being included in the defence budget. The noble Lord, Lord Jopling, read out the excellent and helpful list that is available from the Library of the expenditure of other countries on defence. The issue is not just one of creative accountancy, as the noble Earl, Lord Attlee, said; it is also that if we are claiming that we can include those things in our defence expenditure then so also can those countries that the noble Lord, Lord Jopling, read out. If we think of how little some of them are paying and if they have the same practice, it would be very useful for the House to know—I am sure that the Minister will not be able to answer right now—what the accountancy procedure is in those various countries. If they are including things such as pensions and contributions to United Nations peacekeeping, the position is even more serious than I thought.

[Earl Attlee]

My Lords, that was exactly my point about gendarmeries and the carabinieri. I put it very clumsily, but it was exactly that point.

[Lord Soley]

I accept that clarification; it is very helpful. I must admit that I am more concerned in a way about things such as pensions, particularly civilian pensions. What on earth are we doing including those in defence spending? If I was in Luxembourg right now, I would be thinking very hard about our accountancy system. I say to the Minister and to my own Front Bench that we should ask all NATO members to spell out what is included in that defence spending. I would not expect to see pensions and contributions to United Nations peace- keeping. We should take quite a hard line on that because, if we did, the figures would look much worse, but at least we could address the matter more seriously.

[Lord Jopling]

It might be helpful to have what the noble Lord suggests, but also let us point out that if defence spending is 2.21%, which the Library says it is—that same figure appeared in the Times only a few weeks back—it is worth roughly £4 billion, which is a massive amount of spending on top of the 2%.

[Lord Soley]

I understand and accept that point, which the noble Lord made very clear in his contribution, but I simply say that if we have a system where we include such things as defence expenditure, first, it opens the door to other countries which are paying in very little to do exactly the same—if they are not already doing it—and, secondly, it does not really help to say, “Well, because we’re spending a bit more, it covers that up”. Covering it up is not the answer. We are here to hold Governments to account, as I am sure the Minister will know. The aim is not to have accountancy of this type. That is where the Government have to answer.

I want to conclude on a wider point which is entirely political. We have talked about the potential threat from Russia, terrorism and other issues. What we do not look at in this current debate about Brexit is how Europe will change. We are so focused on the changes that the United Kingdom has to make, but we need also to focus on what will happen in the European Union, which cannot stay the same as it is now unless it is to have more problems of the type it has had with Brexit. There is discontent in Europe for a variety of reasons—they are not all the same as those here, but many are similar.

One of my concerns in this context was brought out by Mr Tusk’s comments on Mr Trump. He said that we should now see the United States as one of the risks faced by Europe. That is a dangerously unwise statement to make, but where it is true is that there is a problem about the relationship now between the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States. We need to think that through in other areas. My strong view is that we need a settlement where Britain comes out of the European Union—I do not think that there is any going back on that in the near future; some people may disagree—but it does not come out of Europe. We must recognise that we need, and Europe needs, a very close relationship—indeed, a special relationship—between the EU and the UK. One way to do that—and it is not discussed in the present debate about Brexit—is via our expertise and our contribution in defence and international relations. Europe needs that as much as we do. In the current situation, we need to do more than just step up to the plate; we need to take a lead on defence and international relations in a way that not only reassures Europe that we are not walking away from it but helps cement what will have to become a special relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

For all those reasons—and I recognise the economic priorities around—we need to increase the spending, not to get back to Cold War proportions but to recognise the threat from President Putin and the threats in the rest of world. I would also make a special plea for paying a bit more attention to how all the nations within NATO account for the money they provide. It is not sufficient to say that it is all right to use it for pensions and United Nations peacekeeping. If we allow that philosophy to go any further, let us not be surprised if other countries use it, too. That is a seriously bad idea for all of us.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Earl Howe) (Con)]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, on his Question and on highlighting the importance to the alliance of all member states meeting the NATO target to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence. I am grateful to all noble Lords who spoke this evening.

The alliance remains the world’s most powerful defensive organisation. For 68 years it has kept the UK and our allies safe. Today, it plays a critical role in deterring Russian aggression, strengthening Iraqi institutions, training local troops to stop Daesh and helping Afghanistan rebuild its security structure, to name but the most important of its current tasks. However, as a number of noble Lords today stressed, in today’s world of growing dangers, NATO is becoming more important than ever. It is worth mentioning what the new US Defense Secretary, James Mattis, said at his confirmation hearing:

“If we did not have NATO today, we would have to create it”.


The trouble is that in recent decades we have seen a marked decline in defence spending. Today, the UK remains one of only five nations to meet the 2% target. The best estimate for 2016 is in fact 2.21%, as my noble friend Lord Jopling pointed out. I also take the opportunity to remind noble Lords that the budget will increase by 0.5% in real terms each year of the Parliament. However, five countries in the alliance invest less than 1%. That approach is no longer sustainable. In the face of multiple and diverse threats, NATO must become adaptable by design: that is, transparent, flexible and able to take tough decisions swiftly. In turn, that requires us to spend more, more consistently and more efficiently. That is why from the Wales summit in 2014 through to the Warsaw summit in 2016 and beyond, the UK, alongside our US counterparts, has led efforts to encourage nations to put their money where their mouths are.

So, on the noble Lord’s Question, what progress have we made? Here I depart slightly from my noble friend Lord Attlee, with great respect to him, because the answer is quite a significant amount. Thanks to the defence investment pledge signed by NATO nations in Cardiff, we not only halted NATO’s decline in defence spending but reversed it. In addition to the five allies who meet the alliance target, a further 20 increased their defence spending and seven others plan to reach the 2% target by 2024. At the same time, we should not forget that overall spending is not the only metric we use to measure NATO progress. Three other factors are worth mentioning.

First, we have also seen 10 nations increase the proportion of their investment dedicated to new capability. The noble Lord, Lord Clark, was absolutely right to highlight how critical that is. At a time when our adversaries are making exponential advances in fifth-generation airframe technology and advanced communications, NATO must dedicate itself to developing vital disruptive capabilities, from cyber to space, and from autonomy to big data, to avoid obsolescence and keep ahead of the curve.

Secondly, NATO is becoming far more agile in being able to deploy its forces when the call comes, whether that is Daesh terror in the south or Russian aggression in the east. Since the Wales summit, NATO set up a very high readiness joint task force, the VJTF, to respond in short order to a full range of security challenges from crisis management to collective defence. We have also seen NATO planes policing Baltic and Black Sea skies and we established an enhanced forward presence in eastern Europe. That is currently in train. I am proud that the UK takes a leading role in all these areas. We are leading on the VJTF, we are sending our Typhoons to safeguard Romanian and Polish airspace, and we are deploying around 800 troops to Estonia, alongside around 200 troops from France and Denmark. We are also deploying a reconnaissance squadron to Poland of approximately 150 personnel, who will come under US command.

Thirdly, we are seeing the alliance become more interoperable. One of the NATO alliance’s greatest achievements has been enabling multiple nations to communicate, plan and operate together. Yet there remains work to be done, especially when aligning the defence aspirations of the European Union and NATO. Rather than be distracted by the prospect of European armies or joint HQs, we encouraged our EU colleagues to build on progress already made on tackling migration, applying sanctions to Russia and strategic communications. The joint declaration at Warsaw was about making these two organisations complementary not contradictory, working together on countering hybrid threats, enhancing resilience, building defence capacity, cyber defence, maritime security, and exercises. Clearly, that declaration was a welcome step in the right direction.

The noble Lord, Lord Touhig, focused on the budget and in particular the 2%. He expressed his concern about creative accounting and, I was sorry to hear, accused the Government of shamelessly massaging the figures. I gently point out to him that the House of Commons Defence Committee disagreed with that view. It said that there had been no creative accounting. Indeed, the prime reason it said so is that NATO determines the definitions for categorising defence spending, not the Government. As with other NATO allies, the UK updates its approach to ensure that it categorises defence spending fully in accordance with NATO guidelines by capturing all spending contributing to the defence of the United Kingdom.

I take the point of the noble Lord, Lord Soley, on the necessity of comparing like with like. All NATO members are assessed using the same guidelines so it is right that we should complete our return along NATO’s metrics or we could not be compared accurately with our allies. Incidentally, only one NATO ally does not include pensions: Bulgaria.

[Lord Soley]

Do the other NATO countries include things such as pensions to civilians as well as to military persons, and UN peacekeeping operations? Is that the Minister’s understanding?

[Earl Howe]

That is indeed my understanding. We are clear that NATO wishes to quality-assure the figures that it receives so that it can compare like with like. We believe that the figures are broadly comparable as between the member states of NATO.

On another level, comparing like with like is a bit of a flawed approach. As I pointed out in the recent debate of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, the nature of defence spending inevitably changes over time. In the past, for example, we reported significantly more operational spend, such as when we were involved heavily in operations in Afghanistan. Clearly, that type of spending has diminished considerably. At the same time, the noble Lord, Lord Murphy, questioned—he will forgive me if I got this wrong—the legitimacy of including new categories of spend in the analysis. Of course, he will recognise that new threats require new spending. We have not, historically, included any spend on cyber but we do now and it is right that we should. From time to time, like all NATO allies, we must ensure that we are capturing all appropriate spend.

The noble Lord, Lord Touhig, questioned whether the Army had the ability to wage war. It is important to say that the Army, in line with the strategic defence and security review of 2015, is ready and capable of deploying a potent, large scale, war-fighting force at divisional level providing there is sufficient notice.

The SDSR of 2015 took us a step forward because, along with a commitment to spend £178 billion on equipment and to increase the budget year by year, as I mentioned, it mandated a modernised war-fighting Army division that will be larger and able to use cutting- edge technology to harness all elements of Joint Force 2025. Altogether, it will be a significantly more potent force and I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, would not disagree with that vision.

In a darker, more dangerous world, NATO is more important than ever. Let me reassure the House that the UK has no intention of easing up in our drive to adapt the alliance. In our strategic defence and security review of 2015, this Government spelled out our plan to strengthen our involvement, and since the referendum vote we have seen our commitment to the alliance intensify. The noble Lord, Lord Soley, said that we should not allow ourselves to lapse into complacency. I entirely agree with that, but if the progress we have made in recent years is no excuse for complacency, it is considerable cause for encouragement. It shows that the will is there.

Even those sceptical of the new US Administration’s plans should have been reassured, I hope, by our Prime Minister who, during her recent press conference with President Trump in Washington, reiterated that the US was “100% behind NATO”. The Government have no doubt about that commitment. While we can reflect on what the President said during his campaign—remarks such as “NATO is obsolete”—surely what matters is what is being said and done now, which is a lot of joint work. We are working with all NATO allies, including the United States, to make sure that NATO is capable of dealing with the risks posed to us. We are encouraging all allies to meet those investment targets. In fact, we believe that President Trump’s election presents a unique opportunity to forge ahead with NATO reform. The allies now have a chance to invest in this vital organisation to make it more interoperable and expand its international role, showing that it makes a difference not simply to European but to global security.

For almost seven decades, NATO has been the bastion and the bulwark of our defence. By continuing to press our partners to modernise and adapt the alliance, in the face of the 21st century’s mounting demands, we will ensure that it continues to be the cornerstone of our defence for many years to come.

A159 Wildcat Helicopter

Lord Soley Excerpts

Monday 9th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

The noble Lord is right about the need to maintain high-end skills in this country if we are to maintain our position as a leading player in the aerospace market. The Defence Growth Partnership is one element of this. We have a substantial programme of work already under way to encourage the growth and competitiveness of UK industry. Defence is playing an active part in the cross-government work on the national industrial strategy, which we aim to publish during the next few weeks. It makes sense to allow those programmes to deliver before taking a view on whether any further defence-specific work is needed.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

Are the Government aware of the talk among several European Union aircraft manufacturers of both civil and military helicopters and jets that they have a real opportunity to take over production from the UK when it exits Europe? Real discussions are going on in Europe about how production can be transferred from the UK to the European Union. How much thought have the Government given to this?

[Earl Howe]

Naturally, that is being looked at in the context of the Government’s wider industrial strategy, but the 10-year industrial strategic partnership arrangement we have with Leonardo will act as a driver and influence to ensure that that company focuses on using the skills and expertise available in this country over the medium to long term.

Register of Hereditary Peers

Lord Soley Excerpts

Monday 9th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

As with any proposal to reform your Lordships’ House, the key is that we have a prospect of securing broad consensus for whatever is being proposed. Where there are further measures that can command consensus across the House, then the Government are more than willing to work with your Lordships to look at how to take them forward, and we hope to see such proposals emerging from the Lord Speaker’s committee.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

The Minister keeps referring to the Government recognising that this is not the time for a comprehensive review. Does he not accept that step-by-step change might be a lot more effective than a comprehensive approach, which has often failed in the past?

[Earl Howe]

The Government are certainly not averse to incremental reform, providing we can agree on what incremental reform means, which is the reason for my earlier answer to the noble Lord, Lord Grocott. As proof of that, one has only to look at the two Acts relating to the composition of the House that we passed in the last Parliament—the House of Lords (Expulsion and Suspension) Act 2015 and the House of Lords Reform Act 2014—as well as the Lords Spiritual (Women) Act 2015, which again was a measure in this bracket.

Iraq Inquiry

Lord Soley Excerpts

Tuesday 12th July 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

It is appropriate that we are having this debate today when a book of remembrance has been opened in the cloisters of the House of Commons in memory of more than 8,000 Muslim boys and men who were slaughtered at Srebrenica. If people go and sign that book, as I hope to do and I hope others will do, we should think of two things. The first is that not intervening costs lives too. That point has been made by other noble Lords today. Secondly, and very importantly, it was at that time that some of the Muslim community began to fight because they believed that Christian Europeans would not intervene to defend Muslims. It may be forgotten now but we had to take military action not only against the Serbs but against some of those groups. The idea that the terrorism of today has evolved just in recent years is wrong. It has a much longer history.

I think that the report is very good and I have a lot of time for it. Some of the people who think that Tony Blair has not taken the criticism ought to read again in full his statement in relation to the report, and some of the newspapers criticising him might feel a bit guilty given what they were saying at the time. There are terrible double standards. One thing was always clear to me: Tony Blair was not lying. He believed it very strongly. One of the absurdities of the argument about him lying is why on earth would any Prime Minister take a country to war on a lie that they knew would be found out to be a lie within a matter of weeks or months after the end of the war? It was always just a political gesture to say he was a liar. Sadly, one of the responses to this report, particularly in some aspects of the media, has been vindictive and to simply look at him as a scapegoat. I was at a party in Inverness this weekend just gone and seven people came up to me separately and without me asking for it—I was not speaking on the issue or anything—and said that they thought that the response to Tony Blair was vindictive and one person said it was just trying to have him as a scapegoat for all the problems. There are a lot of lessons in this report. Tony Blair quite rightly has to take responsibility and we all have to learn from it.

The noble Lord, Lord Butler, said that he had never liked sofa government and I have no doubt that every time he thinks about that he puts his head in his hands. However, government is at times dysfunctional—if you look at the run-up to Brexit and immediately after the Brexit vote, by God it was dysfunctional. The dysfunctionality on the Iraq issue was that of the US Government. Tony Blair did have a lot of influence with George Bush but two people had far more influence than he did. One was Donald Rumsfeld and the other was Vice-President Cheney. Every time Tony Blair tried to get movement, Cheney and Rumsfeld went in and said, “Don’t bother with the UN. Don’t bother with it with any of these other matters”.

Again, we have to be honest. My noble friend Lord Judd is a great supporter of the United Nations. So am I, but let us recognise that the Security Council is also dysfunctional. It will not normally support intervention because Russia and China do not believe in regime change. So we all have to support these despotic dictators being kept in power. That is what is happening now with Syria. Assad is still in power because Russia wants to keep him in power. We have to recognise that this report needs to be taken in context and not rush out and condemn Tony Blair or anybody else such as the security services or the military team. We have to learn the lessons but not kid ourselves that somehow or other we can just make this right by using them as scapegoats or by being vindictive like some people. The painful reality is—and it has troubled me for years—that we do not know how to intervene successfully and maintain the peace afterwards. We did it well after the Second World War: we policed Japanese and German areas with German and Japanese troops supervised by British NCOs and officers.

My heart sank after Colin Powell was removed because he knew that we would have to keep large numbers of troops in Iraq to police it. He was manoeuvred out by Cheney and Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld really did believe in the most naive way possible that if you got rid of Saddam Hussein the people of Iraq would embrace democracy. It was a lovely idea but not true. Some people have said that there was no attempt at a post-conflict effort at all. There was, actually. There were talks at Wilton Park which this Government and previous Governments know about. They were not very successful, not least because when Colin Powell went the whole lot was brought virtually to an end.

When I was the MP for both Hammersmith and Ealing I had a lot of Arab constituents. The noble Lord, Lord Carrington, is right that among those were Iranians, who are not Arabs, and also of course the Kurds. The Kurds were absolutely in favour of intervention. They would come to me and say, “Please do not back down this time as you did in the last Gulf War”. The Iranians—or the Shia, if you like—were more in favour than against, but they were much more wobbly. The Sunnis and others, particularly the Palestinians, were strongly against. The whole of that region was divided about intervention. The horrors that the Kurds, in particular, had suffered from both chemical weapon attacks and conventional attacks were awful. As my noble friend Lord Judd said, we have to remember that real people get hurt.

Time and again in my advice surgery I saw people from all these brutal dictatorships, starting with the Iranian one in 1979, and I was shown their injuries, and I said there was nothing we could do. Actually the world could do something but because of the dysfunctionality of the United Nations, we do not and we cannot. That is the major message, and it is not new. In the 19th century, after we made the slave trade unlawful, we used the Royal Navy to intervene and stop it. All the correspondence in the newspapers at the time was for or against intervention. It is fascinating that those against were using the same arguments as they use now, such as that it will make matters worse and, “Oh, look, the slaves are being thrown overboard because the British ships are chasing them”. We persevered with that intervention.

One of the things that troubles me most—and I will finish on this—is that as a result of the way things went wrong because of our failure to do the post-conflict bit well in Iraq, there is a danger that we will not intervene again. We will lose confidence in ourselves. If the West loses confidence in the idea of the rule of law and the idea of democracy and is not prepared to fight for them, and if it is not prepared to make sure that other people have the opportunity of enjoying the peace that those bring, then, frankly, the wider world is in trouble.

We need to get our confidence back and start to understand that everything that is happening in the Middle East now is not our fault, but nor is it all down to Iraq. There was a peaceful period when people in the area had a choice and could have chosen ways that did not lead to the present problems. The Arab spring—perhaps misnamed now but nevertheless very important —was another trigger in all of this and it was not caused by us. Finally, remember that in Libya Gaddafi gave up his nuclear process and his chemical weapons because of what we did in Iraq. It went wrong after that, not because of Iraq but because of what happened in Tunisia. Please let us make this a debate much more about the problems of how and when we intervene and what resources we put into it. That is the message for the future and we had better get it right.

Queen’s Speech

Lord Soley Excerpts

Monday 23rd May 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

My Lords, I was born just before the Second World War and I have very clear memories of the street parties celebrating the defeat of Hitler and of Japan in 1945. Even at that relatively young age, I was left in no doubt that Britain alone of the major European powers had not been defeated and occupied. One reason why Britain is so ambivalent about Europe is that that fact runs deep in our veins, whereas in continental Europe they see both the initial economic community and then the European Union as a war-preventing method. We do not see it as that, which is very significant for the older generation. That fact is very large in the thinking of people of my generation and makes us more anti-European Union than the younger generation, for whom it has less force.

Equally importantly, after the Second World War Britain was by far the most popular nation in Europe, where you could go anywhere with a union jack and be proudly talked to. We were the nation that was a success, not just because of the defeat of Nazi Germany but because we had played such a crucial part in structuring a new Europe. European human rights legislation and the most successful German constitution—these and many other things had a British stamp on them. Similarly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was set up by the Attlee Government. All those things made us popular. How is it that, in the intervening years, we have become one of the least popular countries in the European Union? It is because so many people in continental Europe have come to the conclusion that Britain does not want to be a member.

The real problem, however, is that Britain cannot make up its mind on this. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, that exactly the same problem applies to this referendum as to that of the Wilson Government in the 1970s. Unless we win it very, very well, the problem will continue; as with the Scottish referendum, it will not solve the problem unless there is a very clear majority. It needs clear political leadership and what has troubled me most, now and over the years, is the lack of that. You cannot lead if you are sitting on the fence. We started off by saying that we did not want anything to do with the economic community, then when it got successful we set up the European free trade area. When that did not work, we pulled the plug and joined what became the European Union. But we were still dragging our feet and being negative. We were still the slightly difficult child in the class saying, “Well it’s a good idea, but”. We really do have to be clear about this.

I suggest that the big crisis in democracy today—not just our own one—is the lack of confidence, which we all acknowledge, in political parties and structures. What is that lack of confidence about? Because of all the technological changes, the new world economy and those sorts of things, the world feels more distant from the people who are governed. We are starting to get a conclusion to that, by recognising that we need devolved powers What is Britain good at? It is actually very, very good at government and the rule of law. It has been a remarkably stabilising force, not just in Europe but in the wider world. This is why many people, including the President of the United States, are saying that Britain needs to be in Europe: because it stabilises it, politically and economically. If we are so good at it, maybe we ought to be in there, saying what the solutions are.

It is absolutely right that the European Union has been far too concerned about minor details, which need to be devolved much more effectively than we have been doing recently. Nation states need to be more devolved, and we are beginning to do that. However, this leaves the big, unanswered question of what you then do about the transnational or international issues. That is actually why the European Union is so important. If we can give the leadership which many people in continental Europe are shouting out for, we need to show that you can govern a continent in a way which makes sense internationally and transnationally but still allows people to make the decisions at a local level which they feel comfortable with. Britain has done that before; it has given that leadership before. If we just sit on the fence or try to go backwards to some ideal, lost world, we will not get there. The world of the 20th century has gone. The United States is no longer the dominant power it was. Britain is no longer the dominant power it was in the 19th century. That is not coming back again, so we need to look at new structures.

Given that there is a very real danger of instability in the world today, which threatens conflict—including in Europe, as we have seen in Ukraine—now is really the time for the British to start leading again in Europe. That means taking a much more positive role, fighting for it, standing up for it and saying all the things we can say so well about government and the rule of law.

Syria: Brimstone Missiles

Lord Soley Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd February 2016 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

So far as we are concerned, as a member of the coalition, we take the possibility and risk of civilian casualties extremely seriously. As I said in my initial Answer, to date there is no evidence that UK strikes have resulted in civilian casualties. Three factors underpin that: our use of precision guided weapons; our adherence to very strict targeting and planning protocols; and, above all, the skill of our pilots and air crew. I think that it does make a difference whether it is the RAF or another air force taking part.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

The real problem here is heavy bombers flying from Russia unloading unguided bombs in large numbers and killing almost indiscriminately. Does not that also have a dramatic effect in driving up the refugee numbers, which continue to destabilise Europe? Maybe—just maybe—we are not taking this seriously enough.

Strategic Defence and Security Review

Lord Soley Excerpts

Thursday 3rd December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

My Lords, I do not think I can cap that. Knowing all four of the speakers from the House of Commons, I know they will all make a great contribution. Some years ago, I considered inviting my noble friend Lord Hain to plant a tree in my constituency, but we got a bit worried that, when he cut the first turf, he would not know where to stop. He could have laid waste to the whole of Shepherd’s Bush Green, so we did not.

I thank the noble Earl, Lord Howe, for his assistance in getting the LIBOR funds for the Mary Seacole memorial, plus the memorial gardens for nurses and other medical forces in combat zones and in danger zones, such as west Africa in the Ebola crisis. The Army has asked me to spread the word that it appreciates the opportunity to convey to people the importance of recognising the whole force concept—not just nurses and doctors but the people recruited from the NHS to go out to danger zones in order provide assistance. It is important, however briefly in a debate of this nature, where time is so limited, to put on record that sometimes we do not recognise enough the need for memorials to people in and around the armed services—not just the service personnel, but those they recruit and employ in other areas. I hope the proposed memorial gardens will meet an unmet need in the country. I know we all appreciate it. The Minister might be slightly worried because charities keep ringing me and asking how much money is left in the LIBOR fund. One lady said to me that, if it runs out, they could slap another fine on them if they are late with her bank statement. There is an offer there.

There are only two points I want to make in this inevitably short debate. The first is about the naval base at Bahrain. I led a delegation to Bahrain last year. I know there is criticism of the Government there, and some of it is justified, but that very small country is struggling to develop the rule of law and a democratic structure. We sometimes underestimate how difficult that is for countries, but it is particularly difficult when just a short way down the causeway you have Saudi Arabia and just across the Gulf, directly opposite, you have Iran. It is a very unenviable position for a tiny nation to be in and the naval base and the US naval base lend stability to that country and are very important. In paragraph 5.57 the Minister commits the Government to build a new naval base, and I very much want to see that happen. This SDSR puts right some of the things we got wrong in the previous one, which was poor. Sometimes I feel that the wording is better than what the reality might turn out to be.

My final point is one that my noble friend Lord McConnell made about the crucial importance in this day and age of linking up foreign policy, defence policy and development policy. One example is Libya. I supported the Libya operation, but I was worried, as with all these interventions, about whether we would get the post-conflict situation right. Generally speaking, I am in favour of intervention. Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State under George Bush, got it right when she said that the really big mistake that the West made in post-war years was to give too much sympathy to dictators. When these brutal dictators fall, whether it is Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi or Assad in Syria, the consequences are enormous because their country is virtually wrecked and has very little structure to it. We need to do better than we have done so far. It is not easy to get it right. What I am saying should not be taken as criticism, particularly of our staff in Libya, who I know are putting their lives on the line at times, but it is profoundly important that we link up these three areas of policy and make sure that we make that extra effort in the post-conflict situation.

Defence: UK Territorial Waters

Lord Soley Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Astor of Hever]

My Lords, I am sure my noble friend will appreciate that for reasons of national security I cannot discuss the detail of such events, as to do so could allow conclusions to be drawn on the UK’s capabilities. However, I can reassure the noble Lord, Lord West, and my noble friend that we take the security of our maritime boundaries very seriously.

[Lord Soley (Lab)]

My Lords, I appreciate the sensitivity of this, but can the noble Lord go a bit further and tell us whether we have an estimate of activity around the waters of Scotland and whether the Scottish Government are aware of any problems of this nature? Although it is not a matter for them, it is a matter of interest to the people of Scotland.

[Lord Astor of Hever]

My Lords, again, I am sorry to disappoint the noble Lord; I cannot discuss this issue, but I can tell him that defence is a reserved issue and is not the business of the Scottish Government. We will not compromise on the defence of the United Kingdom.