(2 years, 7 months ago)
Lords ChamberThank you. My Lords, for the next five minutes, I want to move the focus from eastern Europe—and the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard —to the eastern Mediterranean and the divided island of Cyprus. I declare an interest as a vice-chair of the APPG for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
The island of Cyprus has been divided for over half a century. In that time, there have been many attempts at reunification, all of which have failed. These failures have prolonged the isolation and impoverishment of the north. Through no fault of their own, the people of northern Cyprus have suffered and continue to suffer exclusion from the international community and embargoes on their trade.
Despite this record of failure, and after another unsuccessful round of talks in Geneva 13 months ago, the UN Secretary-General said:
“I do not give up. My agenda is strictly to fight for the security and wellbeing of the Cypriots—of the Greek-Cypriots and the Turkish-Cypriots—that deserve to live in peace and prosperity”.
However, by the end of last year, the Secretary-General was markedly more pessimistic. He reported that
“confidence in the possibility of securing a negotiated settlement continued to fall on the island from an already low level. Public debate focused on the divergent positions of the sides regarding the basis of the talks”.
Calling the positions “divergent” is putting it mildly. The Greek Cypriots propose variations on the bizonal, bicommunal federation model. The Turkish Cypriots now reject this model entirely and propose a two-state solution. Indeed, the Turkish-Cypriot north has a President, Ersin Tatar, who was elected on exactly that platform.
The two sides appear to be further apart than ever. The south remains prosperous, while the north becomes poorer, under embargo and isolated. In the south, GDP per head is around $30,000. In the north, it is around $15,000. The north’s economy depends largely on subventions from Turkey. The recent steep decline in the value of the Turkish lira has had a disastrous effect on the economy in the north. Inflation in Turkey now stands at 70%, with the prospect of further damaging falls in the value of the lira and the value of the subventions to northern Cyprus.
The Secretary-General ends his most recent report by calling on the Cyprus
“guarantor powers to do their utmost to support efforts to ultimately bring the Cyprus issue to a settlement and bring peace and prosperity to all Cypriots.”
We are one of those guarantor powers, of course, and we have a long and honourable record of working for a settlement. From September, we will also have a new high commissioner, Mr Irfan Siddiq. I wish Mr Siddiq well and look forward to meeting him in the near future. I urge him and the Government to increase efforts to bring the two sides together and work on facilitating confidence-building measures. We know that the two sides can work together effectively when there is a common interest; this was demonstrated clearly during the pandemic.
In the meantime, we could help the economically vital tourism from the UK to the north by addressing a problem at Ercan Airport. We could remove the requirement that all passengers travelling from the UK to Ercan in northern Cyprus must deplane with all their baggage to undergo security checks in Turkey. The UK imposed that restriction; we could lift it ourselves if we chose. I know from conversations with President Tatar that his Administration would comply with any conditions that HMG might have. This would not solve the Cyprus problem, of course, but it would bring some economic relief to the north and demonstrate our willingness to provide practical help. I commend it to the Minister and hand over to the noble Viscount, Lord Trenchard.
(7 years, 2 months ago)
Lords ChamberTo ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the problems that will be faced by the people of Northern Cyprus in the event of the failure of reunification talks; and what plans they have to assist in resolving any such problems.
My Lords, your Lordships will be aware that this debate, which was listed as the dinner break business, will now constitute the last business of the day. This means that theoretically it can be extended to 90 minutes and that Back-Benchers can, if so minded, speak for 10 minutes. That is not mandatory but they can do so if they so desire.
My Lords, I will speak for 10 minutes. I declare an interest as co-chair of the APPG for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The noble Lord, Lord Maginnis, has asked me to apologise for, and convey his regrets at, being unable to speak tonight as intended. His flight from Northern Ireland was a victim of Storm Ophelia.
When I tabled this Question, the negotiations over the reunification of Cyprus had not concluded. That is why the Question on the Order Paper contains the words,
“in the event of the failure of reunification talks”.
Those talks have failed, as did all previous talks over the last 50 years. The Question on the Order Paper is no longer hypothetical; it is now about the actual problems to be faced by the people of Northern Cyprus and about the actual help that Her Majesty’s Government may be able to provide in alleviating these problems.
Most commentators on the failed talks, this time and every preceding time, agree that reunification would bring economic benefits to all the citizens of Cyprus. Those benefits will not now materialise and there is no realistic prospect of them materialising in the foreseeable future. That is because there is no prospect in the foreseeable future of any reunification. No matter how much talk there may be from Greek Cypriots about continuing talks, it is clear that that will not happen. It is clear because every possible solution and every possible permutation of every compromise is known and has been proposed and exhaustively discussed, not just this time but in the Annan plan and in the preceding conversations. They have always failed.
There is no conceivable basis for any future talks without profound changes in what possibly both sides are prepared to accept. There is no sign that this will or can happen. The truth is that there is no incentive for the Greek Cypriots to compromise and no willingness on the part of the Turkish Cypriots to be subsumed into a Greek Cypriot-run state. There is no convergence of interests, not even over the exploitation of the offshore oil and gas finds, and there is no point in doing the same thing over and again and expecting something different to happen.
The failure of the Crans-Montana talks cannot be held at the door of the Turkish Cypriots. It cannot be laid at Turkey’s door either—it did, after all, offer to reduce the number of its troops on the island from 40,000 to 650—and the failure certainly cannot be laid at the door of Her Majesty’s Government. In fact, I make clear my gratitude and admiration for the effort made by Her Majesty’s Government to facilitate a solution to the Cyprus problem, and I particularly thank Sir Alan Duncan, Jonathan Allen and the whole FCO team for their hard work and commitment. There should be no doubt that this Government wanted the reunification talks to succeed and tried very hard to make that happen. I know how very disappointed they were by the final outcome.
However, the outcome was failure, and the consequences of that failure fall most heavily on the people of Northern Cyprus. Greek Cyprus is relatively rich; Turkish Cyprus is relatively poor. Greek Cyprus is an active part of the EU; Turkish Cyprus is technically part of the EU but enjoys none of the benefits of EU membership. Greek Cyprus trades with the world; Turkish Cyprus is under embargo. The future of the people of the north looks bleak, with no trade possibilities, no real inward investment and no external relations. It is cut off and isolated. Through no fault of their own, the people of Northern Cyprus are isolated and impoverished. They are an economic dependency of an increasingly distracted, erratic and authoritarian Turkey. The whole region is aware of the tensions that exist between the Republic of Cyprus and Turkey over the oil and gas deposits in the island’s EEZ. The eastern Mediterranean region emphatically does not need a continuation of this tension.
However, we are where we are. The island has no real foreseeable prospect of reunification and the people of the north need help. I understand that help may be difficult to provide—not impossible, but certainly not straightforward. Ideally, help would take the form of ending or mitigating the effects of the embargo, restoring direct flights and shipping, and promoting inward investment. None of this is straightforward.
The UK position is hedged around with difficulties. There are EU and UN judgments and resolutions, and the votes of Greece and the Republic of Cyprus to consider in our Brexit negotiations. There is also the vital importance of our sovereign bases on the island. However, none of these things amounts to a reason for the UK simply confining itself to the hope that reunification talks might some day resume and have a different outcome. Surely there are things that can be done now—small things at first, but helpful none the less.
Flights from Northern Cyprus to the United Kingdom are a case in point. Until 1 April, flights from Ercan to the UK touched down briefly in Turkey and then continued to the United Kingdom. From 1 April, at the instigation of the United Kingdom, all passengers, baggage and cargo have had to be disembarked in Turkey for additional security screening. This adds significant delay, inconvenience and cost to the flights. The Department for Transport has told me that this new security screening was needed because the United Kingdom did not have sight of the security arrangements at Ercan. This makes the additional security arrangements in Turkey both completely understandable and obviously necessary.
However, the question is: why do we not gain oversight of the security arrangements at Ercan and satisfy ourselves that they are adequate or will be made adequate? I have asked this question in this Chamber and in writing to the Minister. I asked whether we have had discussions with officials in Northern Cyprus about the lack of sight of security arrangements at Ercan. The answer was this:
“The Government has not discussed security arrangements … with officials in the northern part of Cyprus. The Republic of Cyprus has not designated Ercan as an airport under the 1944 Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. The Court of Appeal has ruled that direct flights from Ercan to the UK therefore cannot take place. Flights from Ercan to the UK land first in Turkey where passengers, their baggage, and any cargo are screened before the aircraft continues on to the UK”.
I note in passing that I had not asked about direct flights to the UK. The answer does not mention the fact that, prior to 1 April, security checks were carried out at Ercan and not in Turkey.
Notwithstanding all that, things seem to have moved on a little. Last Wednesday, representatives from the Council of Turkish Cypriot Associations, the British Turkish Cypriot Association, and the Turkish Cypriot Chambers of Commerce for Northern Cyprus and the UK met the Secretary of State for Transport and others to discuss the situation. I am told it was agreed at that meeting that further investigative work is required to find a solution to the problem, which was correctly characterised as a security issue. I welcome this outcome and the signs of flexibility and willingness to talk and help that it shows. There is no legal barrier to our Department for Transport’s aviation people inspecting and assessing security at Ercan, which would comply with any request they might make. This is one way in which Her Majesty’s Government can help the people of Northern Cyprus in their isolation. There will be others.
The UK remains a guarantor power. It must also take some responsibility for allowing a divided island into the EU, thus removing any real leverage over the south. We are the former colonial power, we have two large and vital sovereign bases on the island, and we have an interest in maintaining peace and stability in Cyprus, in a region where there is very little of either. I make no criticism of HMG’s recent involvement with the island—rather the opposite. This speech is not an attack on Her Majesty’s Government and not a request for recognition of the north. It is a request for help for the people of Northern Cyprus. I very much look forward to hearing the Minister’s assessment of the problems now facing those people and the ways that HMG might be able to provide concrete help.
(7 years, 6 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I declare an interest as a co-chair of the APPG for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. I follow other noble Lords in welcoming the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, to his new post.
In six days’ time, negotiations resume in Geneva on the reunification of Cyprus. Many observers and participants see this as the final chance for a settlement. There have been 40 years of discussions and negotiations prior to this; all have failed. In those 40 years, the people of north Cyprus have been greatly disadvantaged. They have been under an embargo for all that time, which means little foreign investment, little direct trade and no direct flights. GDP per capita in the north is now half of that in the south. In practice, the north is an economic dependency of Turkey. That is unhelpful. It threatens the identity of the community in the north, impoverishes their people and is unsustainable. We should all hope that the current negotiations will succeed, that the island will be reunited and the embargo lifted, and that the settlement will provide much-needed economic growth in all parts of the island. Without a settlement, for example, it may not be possible at all to develop the oil and gas fields in Cyprus’s territorial waters, to the great disadvantage of all Cypriots.
The United Kingdom is a guarantor power and will have a seat at the Geneva conference. I know that the Government greatly desire a settlement to end the division of the island and that they agree with Kofi Annan’s comment after the failure of the 2004 attempt at unification that a settlement to the long-standing Cyprus problem,
“would benefit the people of Cyprus, as well as the region and the wider international community”.
This was true when he said it in 2004; it is even truer in 2017, as stability and peace have declined dramatically across the whole of the eastern Mediterranean region. I know that the FCO is working hard to assist the negotiating parties. Here, I acknowledge in particular the efforts of Sir Alan Duncan in this regard. It is right that we work hard to facilitate a settlement and equally right that any such settlement has to be by Cypriots, for Cypriots. The United Kingdom has a legal and moral duty to help and to continue to help. Our legal duty arises from our guarantor status; our moral duty arises from our catastrophic error in allowing a divided island to join the EU. Jack Straw, who was instrumental in this decision, now openly acknowledges his mistake.
At the time, the EU promised by way of compensation an end to the embargo and other relaxations. Kofi Annan said, after the rejection by the Greek Cypriots of his plan for reunification in 2004, that he regretted that the Turkish Cypriots would not equally enjoy the benefits of EU membership but hoped that ways would be found to ease the plight in which those people find themselves through no fault of their own. That was 13 years ago, and no ways were found—none. The embargo remains in force and the EU has not delivered on any of its promises.
The current Geneva talks are, realistically, the last chance to put things right, and I urge the Government to continue their efforts to help, but we must recognise that the talks may fail—they have failed before—and there is a very short window available for compromise before elections in the south will dominate political discourse there. There are already signs that this is happening. There are already fears in the north that the Greek Cypriots are no longer really committed to reunification on the basis of political equality. If the talks fail, we must recognise that they are unlikely to be resumed for decades, if at all, and because that is true, Her Majesty’s Government must look to other ways of discharging their legal and moral responsibilities. They must have a plan to support the people of the north if the talks fail. In particular, Her Majesty’s Government must be prepared to help bring about an end to the embargo. They must encourage inward financial investment, they must help integrate the Northern Cyprus financial institutions into international systems and, in particular, they must allow direct flights into and from Northern Cyprus.
Direct flights are crucial to the economic sustainability of the north. At present, all flights to and from the UK to Northern Cyprus must first land in Turkey. This adds time and cost. Since 1 June, action by HMG has added more time and more cost to these flights. Since 1 June, flights between the UK and Northern Cyprus must not only touch down in Turkey but require an additional security check in Turkey and a change of planes. The Government explain this additional requirement as a necessary security measure because they have “no visibility” of security at Ercan airport, the airport in Lefkoşa in Northern Cyprus. This does not explain why these additional security checks are required on outbound flights from the UK to Ercan; it explains only why the additional checks are required on flights inbound to the UK from Ercan.
I entirely understand that it is the duty of the UK authorities to take whatever measures seem to them necessary to protect the public and that while they have no visibility of security at Ercan outbound measures are justifiable, but I hope that these measures will remain in place for only as long as it takes the UK authorities to acquire visibility and satisfy themselves that Ercan airport security meets the required standards. There is no legal obstacle to doing that. There is no legal obstacle to UK authorities visiting, communicating and agreeing protocols with Ercan, particularly in light of the High Court ruling of 3 February this year that law enforcement officers of the UK and north Cyprus can collaborate on criminal matters. Will the Minister and the Department for Transport look urgently at this situation? Why are the additional inbound to Ercan security measures necessary? Are we working to acquire visibility of security at Ercan so that we can reinstate the previous flight rules when it is safe to do so? We should surely minimise the economic damage to north Cyprus as much as we can. Will the Minister say whether the Government have plans to provide assistance to north Cyprus in the event of the failure of the Geneva talks?
(8 years, 6 months ago)
Lords Chamber
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the prospects for civil liberties and democratic governance in Turkey.
My Lords, Turkey is a democracy with multi-party elections whose Government have been democratically elected. In some areas, progress has been made on fundamental freedoms in recent years but, as the European Commission has highlighted, there has also been significant backsliding. As a friend and ally, we strongly encourage Turkey to continue work towards the full protection of all civil liberties, and will continue to do so.
Turkey is a much-valued member of NATO and a much-valued ally of this country. It is vital to any solution to the crisis in the eastern Mediterranean. Will the Minister join me in condemning as shameless and irresponsible lies Vote Leave’s assertion that Turkey is joining the EU, and that the EU is about to be flooded with Turkish criminals? Is not the best way of engaging Turkey on civil rights and democratic governance precisely through the EU membership negotiations?
(8 years, 9 months ago)
Lords Chamber
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what discussions they have had with the Government of Turkey about the seizure of the Zaman newspaper.
My Lords, we regularly underline the importance of freedom of expression and all fundamental freedoms as part of our dialogue with the Turkish Government. On Monday, the Prime Minister raised concerns about press freedoms with Turkey’s Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, underlining the importance of protections for a free press and human rights in Turkey. As a friend and ally, we urge the Turkish Government to uphold the right of media to operate without restriction.
I have been a committed friend of Turkey for 40 years or so, but I now see a country where journalists are imprisoned, the media are persecuted, the Constitutional Court’s rulings are openly criticised by the President, and the main opposition newspaper is seized. Dissent and disagreement are seen as crimes, human rights violations are widespread, and it all seems to be getting worse. Does the Minister think that Turkey can be trusted to respect the human rights of all the refugees, including Kurds, who are to be returned to its care under the EU plan?
My Lords, I stress that the EU plan has not yet been finalised. It was raised in the margins of the summit and indeed after the summit had formally concluded. President Tusk will, within 10 days, be concluding what the agreement looks like. However, the noble Lord makes a very valid point, whatever agreement may or may not be reached. The answer to it is that Turkey has already shown extraordinary generosity in hosting 2.6 million refugees from Syria and another 600,000 from other countries. It has already shown that it can be trusted to deliver a change of legislation whereby those refugees are able to work in Turkey, and during the next school year every Syrian child will be able to get access to education. We will hold it to any agreements.
(9 years, 9 months ago)
Lords Chamber
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what discussions they have had with the Governments of the Republic of Cyprus and other European Union member states about the proposal to establish a Russian military base on Cyprus.
My Lords, we have been and remain in regular discussion with the Republic of Cyprus about security and defence matters, and have been briefed on the agreement signed in Moscow. The Cypriot Government have assured us that these agreements represent a continuation of existing arrangements. We continually stress to our EU partners the need for EU unity in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
The fact is that, in return for debt relief, Cyprus has formalised an agreement to let Russian warships use its ports. There is also talk of use of an airbase at Paphos, which is 40 miles from our base at Akrotiri. President Putin has said that this deal should not cause any worries anywhere. Does the Minister agree with President Putin or does she agree with the United States State Department’s comment on the Cyprus deal that now is not the time to be doing business as normal with Russia?
My Lords, I have made it clear in this House before that it cannot be business as usual with Russia while it maintains its position over Ukraine, where it has illegally annexed the Crimea and intervened in another state’s sovereign lands. My noble friend refers to a situation in the Republic of Cyprus that I do not recognise. When speaking to Russian media, President Anastasiades explicitly ruled out the use of Limassol port for military purposes. Foreign Minister Kasoulides also said to the press, after the February EU Foreign Affairs Committee meeting in Brussels, that there was no question of Russian air or naval military bases on the soil of Cyprus. It is a continuation of existing agreements.
(10 years, 5 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Harrison. Like him, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Northbrook on securing the debate and on his wide-ranging opening speech. It was so wide-ranging that I will not take advantage of the extra time available. I declare an interest as chair of the All-Party Group for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
As both previous speakers have said, negotiations for reunification have been going on for more than 40 years. For many of those years nothing much seemed to happen. When it did happen, as with the Annan plan, it did not work. The latest round of negotiations is probably the best chance—perhaps the last chance—of any kind of success. The hydrocarbon discoveries, the financial crash of 2007-08 and the dramatic increase in unrest in the eastern Mediterranean are all new factors pointing towards the desirability of a settlement. However, as usual, there are conflicting views about the progress being made in the negotiations.
In particular, many commentators point out the need for a UN special representative to replace Alexander Downer. I understand that the former UN Under-Secretary-General Lynn Pascoe is the person favoured by Ban Ki-moon. Mr Pascoe was previously US ambassador to Malaysia and to Indonesia; he was the US special negotiator for Nagorno-Karabakh and served five years in the UN Department of Political Affairs, where he was actively involved in the Cyprus problem. Yet I understand that his appointment is meeting resistance from the Greek Cypriots. Can the Minister bring us up to date on this issue when she replies?
It seems the case that heavyweight input is needed pretty quickly. The Turkish Cypriot negotiator, Dr Kudret Özersay, submitted a five-step roadmap for future negotiations to the leaders meeting of 7 July. This meeting was supposed to make progress on confidence-building measures, but it did not. At a negotiators meeting two days later, it was agreed to try again at a meeting taking place tomorrow and again at the next leaders’ meeting, which takes place this coming Friday. It is possible to be pessimistic about all this, but I think it is better read as grounds for cautious—perhaps very cautious—optimism. For example, it seems clear that both sides understand the need for urgent progress. It would help if Mr Pascoe, or some other UN nominee, could take a role in all of this as soon as possible.
The need for urgent settlement arises from several factors. At the moment there is a window of political stability on the island, which will last only until the end of the next round of major elections, which are not very far away. There is also the growing complexity surrounding hydrocarbon exploitation. Amos Hochstein, of the US State Department, said last week that these newly discovered energy resources have changed the rules of the game in the region. That is undoubtedly the case. For example, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation is now in talks to buy 30% to 40% of the Aphrodite gas field in Cyprus’s block 12.
A further factor driving the need for an urgent solution is, of course, the increasingly chaotic, unstable and violent situation in the eastern Mediterranean as a whole. The benefits of a successful reunion have already been rehearsed to some extent by previous speakers and outside the Chamber. Reunification brings the prospect of very significant economic growth. The UN estimates an additional three percentage points to GDP as a result of reunification. There are then the proceeds of the offshore hydrocarbons, which are likely to be significant if reunification takes place, and are quite likely to be zero if it does not. Then there is inward investment, or the prospect of inward investment. The north of the island has been deprived of capital for 40 years, and it is still cut off from the international banking system. Development of the north and reconnection of the north to the world outside will bring increased prosperity to all parts of the island.
Finally, there is the question of stability, which is a necessary precondition for investment—naturally—but is also a vital requirement in such an unstable region. Stability is in the direct interest not only of the Cypriot peoples but of NATO, the region and the West. I know that Her Majesty’s Government have been very active in support of negotiations for reunification, and I congratulate the FCO on that. The UK has a moral and a legal obligation to help, and I am very glad that it is helping. However, our help will be needed for many years after reunification and I shall be very glad to hear the noble Baroness commit to that when she speaks.
(10 years, 5 months ago)
Lords ChamberI will join her—and I am sure the whole House will join me—in congratulating the Foreign Secretary on an incredibly successful summit on ending sexual violence in conflict. Those taking part came from 155 countries and included 1,700 delegates, 79 Ministers, victims’ groups, NGOs and international organisations. On the documentation and collection of evidence of sexual violence, my noble friend will be pleased to note that some of the projects we are funding in Syria are around the documentation and collection of evidence, so that those who commit these crimes will one day be brought to justice.
My Lords, all crimes of sexual violence in conflict need to be within reach of international law, but the recent global summit that has just been referred to notes that the exercise of universal jurisdiction for crimes currently applies only to international conflicts. What steps can the Government take to extend this universal jurisdiction to the type of conflict we now see in Syria, Iraq and far too many other places?
My noble friend makes an important point and I will certainly take it back. He will accept that this is a journey; these challenges have been with us for many decades, if not longer. One of the main purposes of the summit was to agree an international protocol on the documentation of sexual violence in conflict, to build political momentum, to fund more groups dealing with survivors and to encourage individual countries to develop country plans so they can take responsibility for these crimes within their own states. However, I will certainly take back the further idea given by my noble friend.
(10 years, 6 months ago)
Grand Committee
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the situation in the eastern Mediterranean with particular reference to Turkey, Cyprus and Syria.
My Lords, the Question calls for an assessment of the situation in Libya, Egypt, Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and Cyprus. Not a single one of those countries is now without significant problems—problems which are a direct threat to the larger regional stability and an indirect threat, at least, to the West. Some of the problems are long standing; some are of recent origin; some are the consequence, or at least the aftermath, of western military intervention.
I start with Libya. Here, a tyrant who oppressed his people was removed by the power of the West. We supported the idea of bringing democracy and pluralism. We had stability and security as objectives. None of that happened, except for the removal of the tyrant. There is no real democracy, no pluralism, except in the very worst sense, no stability and no security for the people. The country is left in the grip of civil war. Can we argue that intervention was beneficial there?
Then there is Egypt. Once seen as the most promising instance of the Arab spring, the country has reverted to what looks like and feels like a pre-uprising Government.
Gaza, after North Korea, has the world’s largest confinement of people and the longest lasting. Has western policy improved the conditions of the people there?
Israel is a flashpoint for conflict locally, regionally and internationally. It is a close ally of America and the West, yet an unrepentant and serial flouter of UN resolutions. Has western policy helped the course of peace and reconciliation here? Has it reduced the dangers that the Israeli situation has generated and continues to generate?
The people of Lebanon have suffered terribly from civil war and civil strife, all connected with the root Israel/Palestinian problem. April’s House of Commons report on Lebanon made the point that instability is increasing in the country, with cross-border fighting and armed clashes between Sunnis and Shias. In addition to all this, there are more than 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, a country of 4.5 million people. It is to our credit that we have already given more than £110 million to help the country with the refugee crisis. None the less, no one would pretend that the current state of affairs in Lebanon is stable. No one would pretend that the current situation is what western policy would have wanted.
As for Syria, the world knows how truly dreadful the situation is. There is in progress a three-cornered civil war. There are the supporters of Assad, the moderate opposition and the jihadist opposition, all of whom fight each other, and of course there is the appalling and widespread use of barrel bombs by the Assad Government against their own population. All this has inflicted and continues to inflict death and destruction on the entire population on a truly dreadful scale.
According to the UNHCR, 9.3 million Syrians need humanitarian assistance—that is 43% of the entire population. Some 6.3 million of these people have been displaced internally and 2.8 million have fled the country, and the UNHCR expects this figure to rise to 4.1 million by the end of this year. This mass flight places intolerable burdens on neighbouring countries. Jordan, for example, a country of 8 million people and not without its own problems, now has 600,000 Syrian refugees.
The same House of Commons report sets out some of the major criticisms of western policy towards Syria. They range from a failure to recognise the need for negotiation with Assad to western encouragement and then lack of support for an uprising, to a lack of support for the moderate opposition and an absence of military intervention.
Whatever the failings of western policy, it is surely clear that the current situation in Syria is unsustainable, getting worse and a direct threat to western interests. Here in the UK, Parliament has decided against military intervention—in my view, very wisely—but obviously we have not been inactive. We are the second largest contributor of humanitarian aid, with £600 million committed to date. This aid is a credit to UK foreign policy, but it is a patch. It is necessary but it is obviously not a means of bringing long-term stability to the region.
Then there is Turkey—a NATO member, an accession candidate and a good friend of the UK. It is now host to three quarters of a million Syrian refugees in its most sensitive border areas. Since independence, Turkey has endured long periods of unstable government, periods of military rule and very slow economic growth. All that began to change in 2002 with the victory of the AK party. The country has prospered. It has become a true regional power and seems to have moved past the possibility of military intervention in political life. The regime has demonstrated that a large, Islamic country can operate a democratic and economically successful society.
All this, of course, is critical to the interests of the West. It is directly in our interests to have a strong, prosperous and stable Turkey as a NATO member and committed to democratic values. But Turkey is now under immense strain. Until very recently, Turkey had been largely driven by an admiration of and respect for western values. This admiration and respect is in decline. Turkey continues to imprison journalists and restricts freedom of speech. Its Executive interfere in the police and in the judiciary, and their tone with their own people has grown increasingly hectoring and peremptory. There is growing civil unrest. There is the unresolved Kurdish question, which is not made easier by the events in Iraq. Turkey appears to be turning away from the EU. Many Turks see the prospect of EU membership as neither realistic nor desirable. The glacial progress of EU accession negotiation feeds this point of view.
As a friend of Turkey, I am very glad to be able to say that Her Majesty’s Government remain strongly in favour of Turkey’s EU membership. We must continue to make the case to our EU partners for Turkey’s membership. Turkey sits at the fulcrum between the East and the West, as it always has. It needs the West’s encouragement, empathy and help as it faces internal difficulties and very great difficulties on its borders with Iraq and Syria. The West needs to be sensitive to Turkey’s alarm at the prospect of a Kurdish state straddling these countries and to the prospect of a prolonged Sunni/Shia conflict in the region drawing it into dangerous interventions in Iraq and in Syria. The West needs to help or, in our case, continue to help Turkey.
Where we can help to solve problems, we should. Cyprus is a case in point. The island has been divided for more than 40 years. In those 40 years, talks for reunification have been an enduring feature of political life, without any success. The Annan plan of 2004 was the last and most comprehensive proposal for a settlement. It was enthusiastically accepted by the Turkish Cypriots and comprehensively rejected by the Greek Cypriots. The reasons for rejection have been intensely analysed. Essentially, the Greek Cypriot political elite and the Greek Cypriot people saw no benefit to them in the proposals, so they voted against.
We are now in the middle of a renewed negotiation. Many see this as the best and final hope for reunification. It is clear this time that both sides must see the benefits to them of any proposal for reunification or—as the Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator, Dr Kudret Ozersay, puts it—they must at least see the real harm to their interests that rejection would bring. The negotiations are by Cypriots for Cypriots, as they should be, although the benign interest of the UK and recently of the US has undeniably been of some help.
I particularly commend the FCO for its bold step in inviting the Turkish Cypriot leader and his chief negotiator to London. This is the first time that an official invitation has gone to Northern Cyprus and it is a helpful and very imaginative step on the part of the Government. I urge the FCO to continue to do all that it can to provide any welcome assistance in and around these negotiations. Cyprus is, after all, a Commonwealth country and an EU member state, and we are a guarantor state. I ask the Minister to tell the House this afternoon what steps the Government are taking to help and what progress is being made in the nomination of a UN replacement for Alexander Downer. Does she agree that it is vital that a choice is made very soon?
In conclusion, I return to some of the larger questions raised in the summary of the situation in the eastern Mediterranean countries. It is clear that the whole region is unstable and becoming more so; that we are witnessing a religious war between Sunni and Shia; and that the situation in Iraq and in Syria has profound consequences for the whole region and for the West. This weekend, Tony Blair argued that the situation in Iraq is not the consequence of our illegal invasion, which strikes me as nonsense. But it is surely indisputable that the current state of affairs is not desirable and not in conformity with western policy objectives.
If stability, the rule of law and justice are the policy objectives, western policy has not delivered very much of them. I acknowledge our outstanding humanitarian efforts and our belated military restraint. I acknowledge too our occasional willingness to be bold. Today’s announcement about our relationship with Iran is a case in point. But I ask the simple question: what else can we do? If stability, the rule of law and peace, and an end to cruel oppression are among the West’s policy objectives for the region, what do we do now that is different?
(10 years, 10 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, and I congratulate, as she did, the noble Lord, Lord Harrison, on securing this debate. There seems to be a general, if qualified, consensus among the commentariat that international trade does promote both employment and growth, both in exporting and in importing countries.
However, this consensus is not uncontested. In a 1999 paper, Warzynski and Westergård-Nielsen comment:
“International trade and outsourcing are often blamed for destroying jobs”,
and the current position of China serves as an example of the problems that imperfect international trade arrangements might generate. As Irwin Stelzer wrote in the Sunday Times four days ago,
“China, running its largest trade surplus in five years, manipulates its currency, subsidises its state-owned enterprises and steals intellectual property from America and Germany—or demands it in return for access to its market”.
However, as I said, the balance of expert opinion seems clearly of the view that international trade, provided that certain regulatory mechanisms are in place, promotes both growth and employment. An OECD paper of May 2012 called Trade, Growth and Jobs summarises that organisation’s view. It concludes:
“Trade improves employment and wages through growth … Trade—both imports and exports— contribute to creating better jobs … there is no systematic long run link between import levels and unemployment ... Trade can also improve working conditions”.
In addition to all this, there are some compelling examples of where the absence of international trade damages both growth and employment. The world uses sanctions as an instrument of persuasion precisely because of the damage caused by constraint in external trade. There is a compelling example in the middle of the Mediterranean: Northern Cyprus has been effectively cut off from any significant internationa1 trade for 40 years, and the consequences have been poverty, unemployment, and low growth and investment.
However, the benefits arising from international trade may not be as clear or as straightforward, or as equitably distributed, as a Panglossian reading might suggest. There are, of course, two kinds of international trade: goods and services—and financial services are a major component of the second group. I do not think that anyone would argue that the collapse of 2007-08 has not damaged growth and employment in very many communities. The connectedness inherent in international trade can be a major cause of reversals in growth and employment. That is especially true when regulation proves inadequate, and I shall return to the theme of regulation a little later.
However, I note that even when international trade promotes growth and employment, as it frequently does, it can also have other important consequences. It can have cultural consequences that may be seen as undesirable—France’s attitude to the Anglo-Saxon model, mentioned already by the noble Lord, Lord Giddens, is a case in point. The opening up of new markets may also have unpredicted cultural consequences. For example, I believe that Prince Philip is still worshipped as a god by a cargo cult on the island of Tanna in Vanuatu.
International trade agreements may also significantly advantage large corporations over SMEs and micro-businesses. They may act to reduce economic stability via contagion. We have seen examples of that both in sovereign debt and in the Asian markets. Finally, international trade may act to reduce democratic oversight of the operations of the market. This can take the form of simple distance from the transactions, complexity and lack of transparency in trade agreements and non-accountable dispute resolution procedures. In the time remaining, I shall comment on just three of these areas.
The first is the question of whether international trade agreements should now concentrate more on supply chains than on tariff reductions. The World Economic Forum at its meeting a year ago focused on reducing supply chain barriers, which it is estimated would give a bigger boost to GDP than removing tariffs. Improving border administration and transport and communications infrastructure could increase global GDP by 5% and would have six times the effect of removing all global tariffs. I would be grateful if the Minister could tell the House how the Government currently see the proper balance between reducing supply chain barriers and reducing or removing tariffs.
The second area is the position of SMEs in all this. The CBI reports that, in the UK, only one in five SMEs currently exports. It also notes that businesses are 11% more likely to survive if they export. Perhaps part of the problem is that SMEs are not properly represented in large-scale multilateral or bilateral trade negations. In January last year, the WEF recommended that SMEs be at the negotiating table when there is discussion of the regulatory framework and environment. Does my noble friend the Minister agree with that recommendation, and is it actually happening when the UK negotiates bilaterally and multilaterally through the EU?
My final point is on these negotiations. There is an alphabet soup of these things: FTAs, WTO, TPA, TPP and TTIP. Much of what goes on in these negotiations is complex, opaque and takes an awfully long time. Occasionally, it is all punctuated by a dramatic announcement. For example, a year ago the EU Trade Commissioner suddenly announced that he had personally saved the WTO,
“from the darkness of multilateral irrelevance”.
It may well have been true, but I cannot see that kind of thing quickening the pulse of anyone in an SME in, say, Merseyside.
That begins to illustrate a point. We need all our business communities to understand and feel that they have a part in trade negotiations, but we also need to make sure that Parliament has an effective oversight role. This was a point made forcefully by the noble Lord, Lord Harrison. This is currently a question in the TTIP negotiations which envisage, as they should, dispute resolution procedures. This is obviously vital when trading between different jurisdictions, but the question that has arisen is whether these non-governmental arbitration panels will have the power to override or amend local laws.
In the TTIP negotiations, there is a procedure called ISDS—investor to state dispute settlement. The EU acknowledged on 20 December last year,
“that ISDS, if not properly designed, can raise a number of legitimate concerns about whether legislation can be undermined by investors”.
Put another way, it is possible that in settlement of a trade dispute large companies can rewrite national laws. For example, Eli Lilly is currently suing the Canadian Government for $500 million under the terms of a trade treaty and demanding a rewrite of Canadian patent laws.
George Monbiot said in the Guardian on 4 November 2013,
“Brussels has kept quiet about a treaty”—
he means TTIP—
“that would let … companies subvert our laws, rights and national sovereignty”.
Ken Clarke responded to this a week later. He did not agree. However, the issue is clearly important. What role will Parliament have in determining the final text of the ISDS? What opportunity will we have for scrutiny? I would be grateful if the Minister could reassure the House on these points and on the proposed dispute resolution in general.
My Lords, the fact that George Monbiot says something does not necessarily mean that it is true. The Commission is well aware of the issues surrounding this. I do not think that we can say that this is not being discussed, because it is.
I apologise if I suggested that everything that George Monbiot says is true. I did not mean that.
Returning to the issue of ISDS, I was saying that I would be grateful if the Minister could reassure the House on the points that I have made and on the proposed dispute resolution mechanisms in general.
Since I have mentioned Ken Clarke once, I will quote him once more, talking about the advantages of the TTIP deal:
“According to the best estimates available, an ambitious deal would see our economy grow by an extra £10bn per annum. It could see a rise in the number of jobs in the UK car industry of 7%. British companies—of all sizes—currently pay £1bn to get their goods into the US—this cost could be removed altogether. Perhaps most importantly in the long-term, such a deal would safeguard the liberal trading rules which we British depend on—but which the growing economies of the east are less keen on—for generations to come”.
I think that puts a succinct and powerful case for international trade as a promoter of growth and employment—growth and employment abroad and, critically, growth and employment at home too.