Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
Lord Higgins Excerpts(11 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord McFall of Alcluith (Lab)
My Lords, I support the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, on that point. The historical issue is extremely important. If all MPC members had a copy of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations—Adam Smith was a professor of moral philosophy in Glasgow University 250 years ago—we would not be in this crisis. If we could give them something from the 20th century, it would be John Kenneth Galbraith’s treatise. As he said, all financial crises have leverage at their core. In many ways, as the City historian David Kynaston said, the banking community has to come into the rest of society; it has been an island apart from it.
I remember when I was chairman of the Treasury Select Committee and Sir Richard Lambert was appointed to the Monetary Policy Committee. All flutters were let loose because he was not an economist and therefore could not know about or have an intelligent opinion on the MPC. He proved that he was efficient and in fact the banking community is now calling on him to chair a committee so that it can re-engage with the rest of society.
I remember when Professor Danny Blanchflower was appointed to the Monetary Policy Committee. He was resident professor of economics at Dartmouth College but those with the closed-shop mentality did not want such an individual because he was in America. However, we were in the jet age and he came across every couple of months for the MPC. He gave us an insight into the US labour market and US housing.
My plea to the Minister is to get rid of the mentality that it is only economists and those who are in the system who understand it. This crisis has had a hugely detrimental effect on society. If the economists again do not engage with society, then that is where problems will arise.
Professor Larry Summers, who was a contender for the Treasury Secretary’s job and is the Charles W Eliot Professor at Harvard, said:
“The financial crisis has made me rethink everything about economics”.
That is what he has done. The link between economics and society is so important. Let us get rid of the elitism; let us get rid of the closed shop; let us let in people with experience who understand society and can impart to people who have the great gift of economics the knowledge that they are part of society and that the consequences to society will be dire if they do not have a wide perspective on the implications of their actions.
Lord Higgins (Con)
My Lords, we are clearly getting a proliferation of Bank of England committees. We have both the Monetary Policy Committee and the Financial Policy Committee. Can the Minister say briefly precisely what the responsibilities will be of the Financial Policy Committee?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I will answer that question. The principal role of the Financial Policy Committee and its principal area of responsibility is to maintain the stability of the financial system. That is very different from any of the other committees established by the Bank. As for people on the FPC who have any understanding of financial crises, at the moment, Dr Donald Kohn, for example, clearly falls into the category of people with that ability. The former governor believed that he had extensive knowledge of financial history, and therefore there was and is no lack of it on the relevant committees, even without the provision on the face of the Bill.
Lord Eatwell
My Lords, in general these are desirable and beneficial changes, although they do not really represent the great boost to the growth of the mutual sector which we might have expected. However, I want to raise just two major issues. The increase in the use of electronic communication, particularly given the typical customer profile of building societies, raises the possibility that certain members will be disadvantaged with respect to the availability of regular information and of course the summary financial statement, which they should be able to receive in order to understand the overall status and security of their building society. Is the noble Lord content, and can he reassure the House, that there are suitable safeguards so that those who do not have ready access to electronic communication receive appropriate paper copies?
Turning to the issue of owners of preferred shares, can the noble Lord reassure me that the definition of ownership is the same as for those who have held shares for two years? The noble Lord may remember that initially when building societies were demutualised this caused problems, because if Mr and Mrs Smith held a joint account, in fact only Mr Smith was deemed to be the owner. If Mr Smith happened to die within the two-year period, Mrs Smith did not then gain mutualisation advantages. In a Private Member’s Bill which I helped take through the House, we changed that regulation so that in that circumstance both Mr and Mrs Smith would have the advantage if one of them was deceased. Even young Jimmy Smith would have the same advantage if his parents were killed in a car accident. Does the definition of ownership in this case have that broad scope that was specifically created for the demutualisation efforts—in other words, the owners are not the first-named person on the account but can include both a spouse or a partner and a first child?
Lord Higgins
As I understand it, the Government are proposing to remove the provision that on demutualisation people had to have held the shares for two years beforehand. Is there not some argument in favour of that? Otherwise, if it seems possible that a demutualisation will take place, there will be a sudden rush for people to benefit and obtain a purely short-term gain, as against those who have invested in the mutual for some time.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, I am probably one of the few Members of your Lordships’ House who does not wear rose-tinted spectacles when it comes to the mutual sector. I am usually filled with slight horror when people tell me that they are going to modernise this wonderful sector and I am not particularly interested in the fact that it was in the coalition agreement. That is because we have seen a major failure of the mutual sector in recent years—namely, in relation to the Co-op Bank—and the history of the building society sector is one of failed building societies. However, many of the things in these amendments are not terribly important. Electronic versions of documents and the like may well help to reduce the cost of servicing very large member bases. My only concern is the liberalisation of the amount of funding that building societies can have, which potentially exposes the sector to greater risks. I would want to be assured by my noble friend the Minister that the Prudential Regulation Authority has no intention of relaxing its normal prudential approach to building societies, as there is no evidence that given greater freedoms they will use them wisely.
Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
Lord Higgins Excerpts(11 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke (Lab)
My Lords, I apologise to the Committee that I was not able to speak in the Second Reading debate, but I have followed the debate on this legislation very closely. I support my noble friend Lord Eatwell’s amendment but also wish to speak in support of some of the things discussed by the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey.
Airdrie Savings Bank is unique in Britain as it is the last mutual trustee savings bank in the country. I declare an interest as I have had an account there since I was six and my father also had an account there from the age of six. The difference between Airdrie Savings Bank and other banks is that it cannot offer the gizmos offered by the big high street banks. However, it offers a localised service that is completely trustworthy. There are no two ways about it: it has had its difficulties throughout the crisis, as has every part of the financial services industry. However, because it is unique, sometimes there is a risk that its needs are forgotten about. I ask the Minister to ask officials to look specifically at how an institution such as Airdrie Savings Bank can be protected. It is, indeed, a very venerable bank; my noble friend Lord McFall addressed an event at its 150th anniversary some eight or nine years ago. The bank is completely rooted in its community. The only perk its directors get is a fish supper once a month. There is no question of any extreme expenditure or remuneration being given to the bank’s directors.
I say to the noble Lord, Lord Flight, whose passion for financial literacy is well known in this House, that having a bank that is so extremely local means that financial literacy is not something we necessarily have to worry about. Indeed, it is located in a community that is largely financially excluded. Without Airdrie Savings Bank, many people would not have a bank account.
I have known the bank for many years. When I was Economic Secretary to the Treasury and Airdrie Savings Bank staff came down for a fiduciary interview with staff at the Bank of England, which was then in charge of regulation, there was a threat of a bribe being offered as Airdrie staff brought with them tins of shortbread. I can be extremely proud of Airdrie Savings Bank. As someone who, in various guises, has had to promote financial services in this country, there are not many other banks that I can be proud of. It would be a pity if, through this legislation and, for example, capital adequacy requirements, difficulties were put in the way of this superb institution. It is an old-fashioned institution but, frankly, would it not be a good idea if banking became boring and old-fashioned again?
Lord Higgins (Con)
My Lords, both these amendments have much to commend them. The point that I would like to pick up regarding Amendment 43 is the position of the banks in which the taxpayer has a large holding. Having bailed out a number of banks, it is extraordinary that the Government have stood back completely from any involvement at all in what those banks are doing. In the context of competition, which we are now discussing, there is a strong case for them to set an example. This would enable at least a degree of competition to be introduced at this stage without much delay.
Amendment 102 also has much to commend it. It suggests that the inquiry should look into a series of aspects with regard to banks such as the level of competition, the obstacles to it, other actions and so on. One should add to that a careful study of what the economies of scale in banking actually are, because I suspect the reality is that they do not exist to anywhere near the extent that the size of the banks at present would suggest. On the other hand, we would find that there were major diseconomies of scale, not least the enormous risks to which we have been exposed as a result of banks being the size that they are. We frequently say that they are not only too big to fail but too big to manage. It is clear that they are too big to manage, and that is a major diseconomy of scale.
If we are going to set up the kind of inquiry that the Opposition are advocating, which I would support, it needs to look at economies of scale in this context and consider whether—given that the banks seem to have been motivated as much by megalomania as by anything else—they are of an appropriate size or whether some consideration ought to be given to whether competition would be increased if they were broken up. It is curious that competition in this area has been, as far as I can see, in no way affected by this or any previous Government’s overall competition policy, which has simply not been applied here. If, as the noble Lord said just now, the major banks have probably 80% of the market—given that normally anything over 30% would be appropriate for an investigation—we need to look at that carefully.
The lack of competition is affecting two things: the supply of loans to consumers and small businesses in particular, and the price. It is clear that there is a serious lack of supply for businesses that are trying to get finance for expansion. Despite all the Government’s efforts, of which there have been a number, to increase the supply of loans to small businesses and others, the loans do not seem to be getting through to the people whom the Government would like to help.
As for the price, one has only to look at the cost of capital to banks and then at the amount that they are charging consumers to realise that the situation is lunatic. I wish my noble friend Lord Flight well because there must surely be scope for something to be done on that issue. The difference between the cost and the amount being charged is totally disproportionate. This came up earlier in Question Time, when my noble friend on the Front Bench replied that there is concern about the amount being charged by banks when compared with what is charged on payday loans and so on. A helpful and illuminating article in the press in the past few days brought out this point. I hope that one can get something done about that.
We have some way to go and noble Lords will no doubt wish to return to this matter on Report. I hope that we will then take a definite decision or, even more, that the Government will respond to the proposal for a study. However, this is only a study, and a number of other measures to which I have referred go wider than this. These measures could be taken now and have some effect on the appalling oligopolistic situation in the market at the moment.
Lord Phillips of Sudbury (LD)
My Lords, I, too, broadly support these two amendments. It is encouraging that every speaker so far has taken that broad point of view. As my noble friend Lord Sharkey said in opening this debate, the amendment in his name and that of the noble Lord, Lord Glasman, is a probing amendment. I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, was advancing Amendment 102 in the same spirit. I very much hope that the Minister will say that he will take away the contributions made, so that we can come back together on Report with an amendment that answers some of these concerns.
Perhaps the most striking statistic that we have had was that given by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, who said that in Germany 80% of banking is provided by local regional banks whereas here the figure is only 3%. I think that was said by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, or perhaps it was the noble Lord, Lord Glasman.
Lord Newby
The Government are saying that the OFT is in the process of undertaking a series of pieces of work. We believe that the appropriate way forward is for it to complete that work and to decide whether it wishes to make a referral. We think that that is a sensible approach; it is already in train and we think it should reach its logical conclusion.
To help increase diversity in business lending, the Government have introduced several important schemes, which include the business finance partnership and the introduction of the business bank. The Government are promoting alternative finance to boost overall lending through investments and various innovative non-bank channels, including two peer-to-peer firms, Funding Circle and Zopa, as part of a small business programme. Peer-to-peer platforms enable people to lend money directly to businesses and consumers; they can therefore offer a more effective way for businesses to access finance. They are certainly disrupted in terms of the way in which finance is going directly into many small businesses.
The business bank is drawing together existing government initiatives under one roof and deploying £1 billion of capital to address gaps in the supply of finance to SMEs. So far, £75 million is being invested in venture capital and £300 million in new sources of lending. The Government are also taking action to support local banking—for example, through a credit union expansion project which includes a £38 million funding package from the Department for Work and Pensions.
Community development finance institutions are also providing loans in support of those struggling to access finance from the commercial banks. The regional growth fund is supporting their work through £60 million of wholesale funding and the Government also provide tax relief worth up to 25% on investments. Both credit unions and CDFIs typically operate in quite a tightly defined geographic area and have that special focus.
At national level, both RBS and Lloyds are already in the process of divesting part of their UK banking businesses as a requirement of EU state aid rules, creating new challenger banks. The divestments are part of a package designed to improve competition in the banking sector. The Government have taken the first step to return Lloyds to the private sector and are actively considering options for further share sales. The reintroduction of the TSB brand on the high street is a major step forward for retail competition. This action is further evidence of the Government’s stated aim not to be a permanent investor in the UK banking sector. This is an important step in further normalising the sector and continuing the process of removing government from the extraordinary measures taken during the crisis.
For RBS, the Government are already investigating the case for creating a so-called “good bank/bad bank” split. We will report the findings of this review shortly, later in the autumn. We do not believe that the case for breaking the core operations of any bank in which the Government have a stake into regional entities meets the objectives of maximising the bank’s ability to support the British economy, getting the best value for the taxpayer while facilitating a return to private ownership. The cost of any reorganisation would be attributable to the banks, and, as a result, to the taxpayer. In addition, the time required to execute such a reorganisation would be lengthy, further delaying the Government’s ability to return the banks to private ownership. As a result, the amendment would run directly contrary to the Government’s stated objectives.
This does not, however, mean that we do not see a role for regionally or subregionally focused banks. I have been impressed, for example, by the work of the Cambridge & Counties Bank, which is based in Leicester and is using its local expertise to support SMEs in Leicester and the broader East Midlands region. Its capital comes from a combination of a Cambridge college and a local authority pension fund, which seems to me a model that could with benefit be replicated elsewhere.
I was extremely interested to hear from the noble Baroness, Lady Liddell, about the success of the Airdrie Savings Bank. I am happy to work with officials to see how that bank is faring and whether anything that the Government are doing is making its life unnecessarily difficult.
The challenge, however—looking at that model on the one hand, and on the other saying that in Germany there are a lot of regionally successful banks—is that that is not where we are starting from now. It is very difficult for government to change a culture single-handedly. If banks such as Cambridge & Counties are successful and other people see that they are, we will see more regional banks, but I do not think that government either can or should try to impose a new overall structure on the banking sector against competitive forces and what people in the banking sector want to do.
I do, however, welcome the news that Santander wants to regionalise decision-making. RBS has for some time been trying to re-educate its SME bank managers about the virtues of relationship banking. It is amazing that that was lost, but the penny has dropped, and I very much hope that the statement by Santander is part of a broader process to push down decision-making to regional and local levels.
I hope that I have been able to persuade my noble friend that the Government have considerable sympathy with his amendment, but that much is already happening to bring greater diversity into the banking sector. Frankly, the pace of change—the number of new entrants, the change in the way that the system is operating and the way that people are doing banking—is quicker than at any previous point in our lifetime. I hope that, on that basis, he will feel able to withdraw his amendment.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, my noble friend seems to be implying that the study by the OFT is in some sense a substitute for the amendment. In that context, one is bound to ask what the OFT has been doing on this for the past 25 years. Is that what he is saying and, if so, when are we likely to have a decision on whether there should be a referral? Is there any possibility that the OFT report would give us the kind of information asked for in the amendment?
Lord Newby
My Lords, as I said, the OFT is undertaking its work and expects to have formed a view by 2015 about whether to have a broader referral. I think that at one level everybody finds it easy to criticise the failures of virtually every regulatory body in the past. It is unfair to suggest that the OFT has learnt no lessons from the past 25 years in the way that it undertakes its work. The Government have considerable confidence in the work that it is now doing.
Lord Flight
My Lords, I ask the noble Lord to look at the other side of the balance sheet. I could not find the extract, but it is from a key government website and says that most organisations within the public sector are obliged to bank with either RBS or Citibank. This means that new banks cannot solicit their business. I am not clear how that came about or whether it is even in accordance with EU requirements, but a large part of the economy in the public sector is simply being dictated to on who it can bank with.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, my noble friend says that people have been very slow in the past, but he is now telling us that the OFT will decide whether to make a referral—not actually do anything, just make a referral—by 2015. Does it really take from now to 2015 to decide whether the banks need to be referred?
Lord Phillips of Sudbury
My Lords, if I may, I would add that my noble friend talked of being too slow, but in this debate several noble Lords have made the point that it is not slowness which has afflicted the large clearing banks but immorality. Whether you are talking about trying to manipulate the LIBOR rate or PPI or identity insurance—you can go on and on—there is the sheer scale, impersonality and lack of relationship or any sort of customer allegiance. I fear that these have rotted the foundations of so many of these colossal banks. Does he not therefore understand that the gist of these amendments is to try to replace that state of affairs?
Lord Blackwell (Con)
My Lords, in asking Parliament to approve these powers, I wonder if my noble friend could set out what protection he believes is built into this legislation for the inappropriate use of these powers. I understand why having a regime in place that allows a speedy resolution to be enacted is desirable. If that is to come about, it needs to happen very quickly and efficiently when the circumstances call for it. The draft legislation sets out the conditions under which those powers might be exercised. The new Section 8A of Schedule 2 talks about appropriate conditions protecting,
“the stability of the financial systems … the maintenance of public confidence … the protection of depositors … the protection of client assets”,
but those conditions are obviously subject to judgment and interpretation, and it would be helpful to understand those parties who might be affected by the exercise of those powers, not least of course shareholders and bondholders, and whether there is any protection for them against the inappropriate use of those powers without getting into some lengthy and time-delaying process of judicial review.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, these clauses give the Bank of England very considerable powers and responsibilities, which we will need to consider very carefully; we are going somewhat into uncharted waters. At a purely quantitative level, will my noble friend, if not today then on some other occasion, indicate how the system would have worked if it had been applicable in the recent financial crisis? That is to say, in the case of the bailed-out banks, would it have been sufficient to mean that there would have been no charge on the taxpayer, or is it likely that there would still have been a charge?
We will consider in particular the question of the hierarchy of debts. The briefs that we have had from the Treasury have been very helpful, but it might be helpful if my noble friend could in some way or another give us some idea of how the new hierarchy is now likely to work or, to avoid any doubt, perhaps to write the hierarchy into the legislation.
Other points give me some cause for concern, some of which have been made by the noble Lord on the opposition Front Bench. It seems that there is still a considerable risk of contagion if one suddenly bails in a particular bank, but the people who are its creditors will have repercussions elsewhere in the banking system. I am not entirely clear to what extent the Government have taken that particular risk of contagion into consideration. These are quite complicated matters, and we look forward with interest to the Minister’s reply.
Lord Newby
My Lords, I thank the noble Lords who have spoken on these extremely technical points. A number of the questions were themselves extremely technical, so if I do not answer them fully now I will of course write to noble Lords.
The first question the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, raised, was the question of contagion. My first point here is a general one. The markets now expect the bail-in powers to be one of the options available if banks get into difficulty. They seem generally to accept this as an option, and they are adjusting their own activities to the extent that they feel that is necessary in recognition that this will now be part of the environment in which they work. However, in an individual case, if the Bank felt that there was a risk to financial stability by exercising the full bail-in option, which covers all the assets or liabilities of the bank, it could decide not to bail in all of them but to be selective in a manner that would reduce the possibility of contagion.
In addition, in circumstances where a bank is going under, if you do not go down this other route, virtually whatever else you do with it, there is a risk of contagion. That is one of the considerations that will be in the mind of the Bank of England. Of course, if the Bank felt that there was a risk to the whole system if a particular bank went down, it has the powers under the Banking Act to nationalise it, which is another way of protecting the system and the stability of the system. This is another possible approach, but under the Banking Act it is now one of only four possible ways of dealing with the problem of a failing bank.
I am sorry if my answers are slightly out of order, but the noble Lord asked what the word “comparable” meant when we talked about other countries’ depositor protection. As he knows, all EU member states have depositor guarantee schemes with a common limit, and all those schemes will be considered comparable. Therefore it covers any schemes that will ensure small depositors in the event that the bank becomes insolvent and unable to pay its debts, in the same way as our FCA.
Lord Eatwell
I just take up the Minister on that last point. Surely one of the key arguments about the ring-fence is that there is an implicit guarantee from the public authorities not to allow institutions within the ring-fence to fail. That implicit guarantee is worth a lot of money to those banks that have been too big to fail. Surely the whole point about the ring-fence is that those outwith it would not benefit from that form of public continuity guarantee. But is the noble Lord saying that the Government wish to retain such measures, which would allow them to implement such continuity guarantees?
Lord Higgins
I come in on the same point, if I may, because my reaction was the same as the noble Lord who has just spoken. Am I right in thinking that all these bail-in provisions apply only to ring-fenced banks? Is that the case, or not, or are they extended to banks that are not within the ring-fence? Perhaps the Minister could make absolutely clear what the position is, because it was not clear earlier.
Lord Lawson of Blaby (Con)
The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, said something which I think is profoundly wrong, but I can understand why he said it. Will my noble friend the Minister make it absolutely clear that it is not the position of Her Majesty’s Government, and it is not the purpose of this Bill, to ensure that no ring-fenced bank will ever be allowed to fail? That is not the position; it must not be the position and I do not believe that it is the Government’s intention.
Lord Newby
My Lords, I can confirm what the noble Lord, Lord Lawson says. It is not the intention to have a situation where it is impossible for a ring-fenced bank to fail. What we are doing, particularly through the guarantee scheme, is ensuring that ordinary depositors are protected in those circumstances. Through these potential provisions we hope to ensure that there will be continuity of activity, which might not be the case without them.
In terms of the scope of these provisions, they are the fourth of what are now four options in the Banking Act for dealing with a bank that is in danger of failing. One is sale to another bank; one is the bridge bank and the other is nationalisation. Those measures apply to all banks covered by that legislation. I believe that that extends the measures beyond the ring-fenced banks.
Lord Higgins
I am sorry but I am still not clear. Could bail-in provisions be applied by the Bank of England to banks which are not within the ring-fence?
Lord Flight
I support these amendments. The biggest part of the Bill is concerned with creating competition in the banking industry. The thought had crossed my mind that we are proliferating yet another regulator but I am persuaded by the argument advanced by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, that it might get lost within the FCA which has many other things to focus than competition. However, I make the small point that in the past year the Payments Council has done a good job in bringing in the ability to transfer a bank account within seven days. Although the new body will be more representative, the Payments Council should not be overcriticised for what it has achieved while it has existed.
Lord Higgins
Those of us who have been through many legislative processes may be a little appalled to find that it takes 40 pages of amendments to establish a payments regulator. I wish to ask one or two simple questions. On whom will the cost of this regulation fall? Have we an estimate of what it is likely to be? The Minister referred to what I believe was the lamentable attempt to get rid of the cheque system. Will this proposal stand up if the cheque system is changed? As far as international transactions are concerned, will the regulator be concerned with payments which are made internationally?
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, my initial reaction to these new clauses was that they constituted a sledgehammer to crack a nut. It seems to me that creating another regulator in a territory which is well occupied by regulators is unnecessary in this case. To that extent I support the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. One has only to look at government Amendment 60YYH to see that the new regulator will have to co-ordinate with the Bank of England, the FCA and the PRA. These bodies already have to co-ordinate among themselves for different purposes in any event. I think that the world is slightly going mad on this. My noble friend Lord Higgins asks who will pay for the regulator. Obviously, the people who will operate the payment systems will pay for the regulator. I suspect that this arrangement will be more expensive than the existing Payments Council system. I do not know how much more expensive it will be. I believe that we should be told what the costs are because they will inevitably end up being paid for by the businesses and individuals who use payments systems. There is no one else.
I have one question with two parts for my noble friend which relates to the powers in government Amendments 60S and 60T. One part relates to the power to require access to payment systems. I completely understand that. If you are to promote competition, you need powers to require access. The other relates to the variation of agreements relating to payment systems to take out anti-competitive elements in arrangements that have already been made. Both those measures could have financial consequences for those who operate payment systems. I do not object to the principle involved, but where in these 40 pages of amendments can I find the principles that the payments regulator has to use in deciding how he approaches those decisions? I assume that he cannot have unlimited discretion to decide who will pay for what and on what terms. However, there appear to be no basic financial principles underpinning this arrangement in the 40 pages of amendments, which seems to me a lacuna.
Lord Newby
My Lords, I will have another look at that. The noble Lord has a problem which I do not have to the same extent, but he makes a perfectly reasonable point and we will look at it.
The noble Lord, Lord Higgins, asked a couple of questions—one about cost and the other about international payments. The cost of the activities comes from the FCA budget and is therefore borne by the regulated population. It is not known at this stage what the level of fees or the detailed budget will be. These will be determined by the FCA. The regulator will be concerned with UK payments systems only.
Lord Higgins
I am not quite clear about who is paying this cost. Am I right in thinking that it is the people using the chequing system? My second question was: is this regulatory system compatible with a change in the underlying system from, say, cheques to the system used in the Netherlands? Thirdly, am I right in understanding that the noble Lord said that this arrangement will cover only domestic, not international, transactions? Should we not be covering both?
Lord Newby
It will cover the UK end of international transactions. The counterparty in another country is regulated by that country’s operations, not by the UK end of it. Obviously, close working between both countries is required but we are dealing with the pipes that leave the UK. Once they have left the UK, the pipes are regulated by someone else. As far as cheques are concerned, if there were to be a decision or view expressed that cheques had come to the end of their useful life, it will not fall under the purview of the regulator to effect that change. I think that I am right in saying that the budget forms part of the FCA’s overall budget, as set out in the legislation. Therefore, the overall financial services sector pays into the FCA for a whole raft of specialist functions. This is no different from anything else that is funded by the FCA.
Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
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Lord Blackwell
I thank the noble Lord for that clarification. I was responding to the fact that the amendment suggests that the chair should be approved by the chairman of the Treasury Select Committee. That would certainly alleviate some of my concerns. Nevertheless, the main point is that if we have an independent regulator, we should trust that regulator to do the job we have asked it to do. That does not prevent Parliament, or any Select Committee of Parliament, conducting its own reviews at any time it wishes, or appointing other reviewers if the circumstances require it.
I must just add that my concerns on that would be even greater if this was required to happen at two-yearly intervals, as suggested by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, rather than at five-yearly intervals, because the task of the regulator with a permanent body looking over its shoulder would then become almost untenable.
Lord Higgins (Con)
My Lords, I had the opportunity of speaking at Second Reading, which seems rather unusual. I pointed out then, and I remain of the view, that the way that the Bill is drafted, with so much reference to a previous Act, makes it extremely difficult for the House to work out what is happening from moment to moment on an unbelievably complex matter. Having said that, the briefs that have been provided by the Treasury on individual amendments and so on are extremely helpful and do something to ameliorate the problem that I have just mentioned.
It seems to me that we are going very much into uncharted waters here. There is a lot of doubt about ring-fencing, its effectiveness and whether it is a sensible way of proceeding at all. I continue in the view that total separation is a better way of going with it. Certainly, since ring-fencing may cause problems, the case for having a review of it is overwhelming.
With regard to the specific way in which this amendment is drafted, the noble Lord who moved it pointed out that the suggestion is that the people who are appointed to the reviewing body should require the endorsement, effectively, of the Treasury Committee. I think I served as chairman of the Treasury Committee for longer than anyone else has ever served, and I welcome the fact that it is playing an increasing role in these affairs. It also seems to me that the development that has been adopted lately, of saying that it requires a degree of endorsement by the Treasury Committee, is good.
It certainly would be wrong—I think that my noble friend Lord Blackwell has misunderstood the position—to start saying that the review should be carried out by the Treasury Committee. It has, after all, an awful lot of work on its plate anyway. However, having said that, we certainly ought to have this amendment or some variation on it, simply because of the difficulties that the ring-fence system as now proposed is likely to create, assuming that we go ahead with it.
Lord Deighton
My Lords, Amendments 6 and 81 insert two new sections into the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and make a consequential amendment to new Section 142J. The first new section, new Section 192JA, gives the PRA a power to make rules over the parent companies of ring-fenced entities. Ring-fencing will require banking groups to make large structural changes to ensure the independence of the ring-fenced bank from other entities in its group. The PRA may need to make rules to ensure that the groups in which ring-fenced banks sit are structured and governed appropriately. Rules over parent companies may be needed to ensure that this is the case.
It is important that the regulator has the ability and flexibility to tackle parent companies. They can influence subsidiaries in a number of important ways—through their attitude to risk management throughout the group, for example. This obviously has implications for the incentives faced by a ring-fenced bank. This amendment, therefore, further enables the regulator to strengthen the ring-fence.
I also expect the PRA to use this power to require groups containing ring-fenced banks to adopt a so-called “sibling structure”. This means that a non-ring-fenced bank cannot own a ring-fenced bank and vice versa. Both the ring-fenced and the non-ring-fenced bank will sit directly underneath the holding company. In this way, the PRA will be able to supervise banking groups more effectively, by having a clear divide between the ring-fenced and non-ring-fenced parts of a group. As development of the ring-fencing policy has progressed, the PRA has identified additional supervision benefits to a “sibling” arrangement such as this. I also understand that the Bank of England is encouraging banking groups to issue loss-absorbing debt from the holding company level, which is likely to lower the marginal cost to banking groups from adopting the sibling structure.
New Section 192JB will give the PRA and the FCA, as appropriate depending on the nature of the firm, the power to impose rules on qualifying parent undertakings to require them to make arrangements which would facilitate the exercise of resolution powers in relation to the parent or any of its subsidiaries.
Lord Higgins
Can my noble friend explain precisely what is meant by “resolution powers”?
Lord Deighton
The resolution powers all relate to the Bank of England’s powers essentially to step in in advance of a bank’s insolvency so that it can change, for example, the creditor arrangements.
The PRA and FCA already have powers to require regulated entities to take actions that would facilitate the resolution of a firm in the event of its failure. This may include requiring it to raise additional capital, issue debt to the market or make structural changes to enable the firm to be resolved.
However, banks may be organised in a number of ways. Many have a structure whereby the bank is owned by a financial holding company, which may not be regulated. Banks may also be part of corporate groups which contain non-corporate banking entities. In these cases, the existing powers may be insufficient to deliver some of the changes that the regulator feels are necessary to make a bank resolvable. This is because the regulated entity may not have the level of control required to make the change. This may be the case where, for example, capital and debt are issued out of the parent undertaking before being downstreamed to a bank. It may also be operational in nature; for example, where a service company which is not owned by the bank but sits in another part of the group provides critical services in the bank.
The amendment will address these cases and ensure that the PRA and the FCA have the necessary powers to make banks resolvable for all types of corporate structure. It amends new Section 142J to ensure that any reviews by the PRA of “ring-fencing rules” under that section must also cover rules made under the power given in new Section 192JA in relation to parent undertakings of ring-fenced bodies.
Lord Deighton
It is a valve which goes only one way; it cannot be upstreamed—otherwise the noble Lord is right that the ring-fence would not work.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, the clause as I understand it seems to be absolutely essential if the powers involved are to be able to ensure that there is a separation between one part of the bank and the other, in which case it is rather extraordinary that the amendment has suddenly appeared at this stage.
If I understand the clause correctly, it has both national and international implications. My noble friend, in response to my inquiry, referred to the Bank of England, but the clause also apparently refers to any similar powers exercisable by the authority outside the United Kingdom. That gives me cause for concern. It would be very useful if all the actions taken in this country, in the European Union and in the United States worked on the same basis. However, as I understand it, that will not be so. The line will be drawn in rather different places in the United States compared with the European Union and in the European Union compared with the United States or this country. How precisely are the FCA and the PRA to set about ensuring that they can separate the two parts of the bank effectively? I am not clear from the amendment how they will do that.
Lord Eatwell
My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Higgins, has raised a very important matter with respect to authorities outside the UK. The proposals under Glass-Steagall and under Liikanen are different from the ring-fence—the divisions appear in different places. In those circumstances, “similar powers” seems to be a very weak description, because they are similar but not the same. With respect to resolution powers, which are crucial in the relationship between the parent body and the ring-fenced entity, that seems to create a degree of uncertainty. Can the Minister clarify exactly what that applies to? Presumably, it applies to the home-host division in regulatory responsibility and therefore subsidiaries of UK institutions in other jurisdictions will be regulated by the home regulator. If the home regulator has different rules with respect to the divisions, it seems to me that there will be a degree of confusion as to what is actually being enforced.
I am grateful for the Minister’s clear answer about the valve that goes one way on the raising of debt and capital. I return to my previous question. Let us suppose that we have a group in which the liability structure of the ring-fenced entity is essentially provided from the parent through the one-way valve and then the parent simply stops providing. In those circumstances, the security and stability of the ring-fenced institution would surely be threatened. The ring-fence would not be working simply because the steady flow of financial support for the ring-fenced institution had been cut off.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, I am a little clearer now than I was a moment or two ago. It would be helpful if my noble friend could say what is the position in each of the countries that I just mentioned. As I understand it, the emerging EU proposals—I am looking at a brief from the Law Society—will,
“require banks to create separate entities (although they will be allowed to stay within the same group) in order to split proprietary trading and market making off from other banking activities”.
On the other hand, the United States scheme will require,
“complete separation of proprietary trading but the bank is allowed to undertake market making”.
Under the amendment, we will apparently have those outside bodies setting the rules for banks in the UK. Consequently, we may find that the ring-fence is being drawn in quite different places—the noble Lord opposite seems to agree—depending on which authority is exercising the powers of resolution.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, what underlies this whole debate is a feeling that the so-called advantages of the universal bank do not outweigh the dangers and disadvantages. My noble friend referred earlier to preserving the advantages of the universal bank, but there is no doubt that such advantages as there might be, regardless of the risks, are significantly reduced if we have an effective system of ring-fencing. Many of us here feel that the ring-fencing proposal is wrong and unlikely to be very successful. We came up with the Vickers report and the Government have gone along very largely with the proposal that was made, but the reality is that we are going to have a situation whereby we should really be going in the direction of full separation. This is bound to take time. Therefore, an amendment of the kind that my noble friend has proposed would effectively give us a means to get out of the present impasse to a situation where we move towards full separation.
I return for a moment to a point that I made earlier. Where does all this leave us in relation both to the United States and with regard to the European Union? This is clearly a global industry. It is no good our legislating for the situation with regard to British banks if quite different rules are being applied in Europe, or applied to us from Europe, or the rules are different in the United States. There is a strong case for trying to get an international consensus on this, but the ring-fencing proposal seems significantly different from what I understand is being proposed in Europe and certainly what is being put forward in the United States. Therefore, I hope that my noble friend will respond to two points. First, where do we stand with this proposal in relation to the international situation? Secondly, is there not a case for the amendment which, as my noble friend has said, will enable us to act if what has rightly been called an experiment as regards ring-fencing turns out not to work?
Lord Blackwell
My Lords, given some of the recent speeches, I again sound a small note of caution. While I understand the need to electrify the ring-fence, the Government and this House should be cautious about legislating on a presumption that universal banking is the wrong commercial or organisational model. I share many of the concerns that have been expressed about the difficulty of having a common culture in an organisation that embraces too many different activities. However, it seems to me that it is primarily a commercial judgment for the management and shareholders to decide whether or not they can make that range of activities succeed. The primary duty of the Government and the regulator is to ensure that whatever is done is not a threat to the financial stability of the system. As I said in my introduction to the first amendment, I support ring-fencing which seems to me to be targeted at that purpose, which is to define the capital and risk exposure of the ring-fenced bank and ensure that it is regulated in such a way that the other activities of the group do not impinge on the capital and solvency of the ring-fenced activity. So long as the Government and the regulator can do that—I understand that people are raising questions about that—it seems to me that the question of other activities in the group is not something on which the Government should rush to legislate.
There are arguments which have not been put in this House about, for example, the ability to serve customers in a common way across different entities in the group, which would not be prevented by ring-fencing. There are arguments about the use of common resources such as IT resources, infrastructure and a whole range of central resources that can be used in a group structure. There may be good arguments or bad arguments but those are arguments that the management and the shareholders should primarily be in a position to consider. Some will succeed and some will fail but it is not up to this House to decide the commercial logic or otherwise of universal banking. The House should decide primarily whether or not the ring-fencing, the safeguards in the Bill and the electrification that is already built into the government amendments will do the job that is intended.
Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
Lord Higgins Excerpts(11 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Eatwell (Lab)
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord for introducing this set of amendments about pension schemes. The argument for the amendments raises two significant questions. We are talking here about transitional arrangements: about moving from a group pension scheme to what might in future be deemed to be necessarily separate schemes for the ring-fenced and non-ring-fenced components of a group. There must therefore be other transitional arrangements as well—for example, property leases which are relevant to a group. Are they, too, to be separated and decomposed? What are we going to do about all those group liabilities similar to pension liabilities during the period between the implementation of legislation for ring-fencing and the conclusion when ring-fencing has been in place for some time? Over that period, there have to be transitional arrangements. Clearly, pensions are a very special case because the people will presumably stay where they are, but there must be other elements of liabilities which are also rather difficult to untangle. My first question is therefore: what is the Government’s thinking about such transitional problems?
The second question, which is much more specific to pensions and immediately arises, is whether the separation will be to the detriment of members of the pension scheme. This is precisely an area in which scale can become enormously important in a pension scheme, especially with respect to diversifying risk. The sheer scale of a pension scheme can be a component of the commercial success of that scheme. If the scheme is to be broken up, will it be to the significant detriment of the pensioners? There must surely be some consideration of whether it is to be their detriment and, if so, of what measures are to be taken to remove that detriment.
Lord Higgins (Con)
The role of the trustees will be very important in this context. Is it envisaged that the two parts of the bank will have separate trustees?
Lord Deighton
On the noble Lord’s question about transitional arrangements, the structure with respect to group liabilities will generally be to ensure that liabilities that are particularly relevant to the newly structured organisations that fall out of the ring-fencing arrangements are consistent with the businesses that they are in, so that an operating unit is created which has liabilities which match the business that it is running. If there was a lease at the group level and the ring-fenced bank was the organisation leasing the building, you would expect there to be an inter-company arrangement which would pass the cost down to that level. That is the principle and I think that most banks operate on that basis anyway because one is trying to put the costs and revenues where the business is. There is a provision under Part 7 of FiSMA which allows for transfer of business schemes if one is moving other businesses, but that is a separate point.
On the question of banks and trustees, it is for the banks to work out the practicalities. The legislation defines the objectives to make sure that the ring-fenced bank is protected and that the trustees and pension arrangements are protected in each case, which is why the provisions here ensure that the regulator is contacted in each case. Essentially, the cost of making this work, so that the pensioners are, at a minimum, indifferent to the outcome, will sit with the bank. That is the principle behind this. There may be some costs involved for the banks to leave the pensioners no worse than indifferent, and those costs are an intrinsic part of this separation and the advantages that it brings us.
Lord Higgins
Will my noble friend perhaps consider between now and Report whether there is not a strong case for the two schemes to be quite separate? There may well be a conflict of interest between the pensioners of one part of the bank and those of the other part; for example, on whether it should be a final salary scheme or a defined contribution scheme and so on. Will he consider whether one should not leave it to the banks but determine that they shall be separate pension schemes?
Lord Deighton
We will certainly review the question in that light. The principle behind this is that they would be separate pension schemes. They may be very similar schemes which are separated, but the notion here is that the ring-fenced bank would have one scheme and the rest of the group would be under different arrangements, the key objective being that the ring-fenced bank would not have an exposure to the pension liabilities that arise elsewhere in the group. That is the key principle here.
Economy: GDP Forecast
Lord Higgins Excerpts(11 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord Newby
My Lords, the figure I gave was for the peak level of net debt. After that, the level will fall. Of course, if growth proves to be higher than forecast, as seems likely, for this calendar year, net debt will be less over the period ahead than has been forecast.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, is there not great confusion in the public mind between debt and deficit? Is it not the case that the debt is going up because the deficit has been cut by only one-third and that, consequently, the debt is going up by two-thirds of the rate that we inherited? Does that not show that we must make more determined efforts to cut the deficit and that the idea of Mr Balls that we are cutting too fast and too much is certainly not the case?
Lord Newby
My Lords, it is worth reminding the House that in the financial year 2011-12 the net debt was £1,106 billion. On current plans, by 2017-18, when the percentage of GDP starts to fall, it will be £1,637 billion, so the noble Lord makes a valid point.
Financial Services (Banking Reform) Bill
Lord Higgins Excerpts(11 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Higgins
My Lords, it is a great pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord McFall, one of my successors as chairman of the Treasury and Civil Service Select Committee in another place. I certainly join my noble friend Lord Lawson in paying tribute to the present chairman of the Treasury Select Committee in another place, Andrew Tyrie, who has also taken on these other extensive responsibilities. He is one of a number of people who have put in an immense amount of hard work behind the scenes to try to achieve a banking system which is safe for everyone and which carries out its duties as far as the economy is concerned.
The reality is that the result of all those labours is an extraordinarily complex, three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle. It is three-dimensional in the sense that some of the pieces are at UK level, some at European level and some at a wider international level. It is going to be very difficult to see how these pieces fit together. That is not particularly helped by the absolute obsession with having initials to describe all the individual organisations. It would be very helpful if, before Committee, the Treasury or the Bill team could produce a list of all these various organisations with their initials and an explanation of the way in which they interlock, otherwise it will be very difficult for us to keep pace with these affairs.
I am rather concerned that a decision has been taken to draft this Bill on to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. As far as I know, I have the up-to-date version of that Act from the Vote Office, but I have considerable problems in integrating the first page of this Bill, which refers to the objectives of the Prudential Regulation Authority, whereas of course the Financial Services and Markets Act is concerned with a quite different authority—the Financial Services Authority. I am not at all clear—we can pursue it when we get to Committee—how this drafting actually integrates. It seems to be a very complicated matter.
I have long had a theory that one can always tell in a Bill of this complexity at what point the draftsman actually suffers a complete mental breakdown. It happens very early in this Bill—it happens by the second page, indeed, which states:
“(b) after that subsection insert—
“(3A) For the purposes of this Chapter, the cases in which a person (“P”) other than an authorised person is to be regarded as failing include any case where P enters insolvency”.”
This chap P appears throughout the Bill from time to time and I have serious doubts as to whether this is the best way of drafting these matters. Some of them are very difficult to draft. No doubt we shall have an enjoyable time in Committee trying to sort the thing out, but it is not going to be easy to draft amendments.
I thank my noble friend the Minister for arranging a meeting with officials ahead of this debate; we may need to consult him further. Officials have been very helpful, but drafting the whole thing by reference to a quite different piece of legislation, albeit related, is not, I think, the easiest way of doing it. Similarly, in the Explanatory Notes we have constant references to “new clauses”, when in fact, as I understand it, they have already been approved by the other place. Certainly, the Bill is very unusual in that the other place seems to have given proper attention to it, instead of its being programmed, when it is impossible for them to do their jobs in an orderly way. So we are coming to the Bill when it has already been scrutinised in another place, unlike many other pieces of legislation we get.
The essence of the Bill is, I think, very much concerned with the issue of banks being “too big to fail”. I come increasingly to the view that they are not only too big to fail, many of them are too big to manage. Noble Lords have only to look at the experience of the LIBOR scandal, and so on, to realise the extent to which the people at the top have not the remotest idea of what is happening in some parts of the organisations they are supposed to head. Indeed, it may also be that they are too big to regulate, so we have to ask, at some stage, what the economies of scale in banking really are. I have increasing doubts as to whether they are as big as they seem—I see, rather, an increasing, somewhat megalomaniac approach by those in charge of such organisations to make them bigger and bigger and take over more and more other organisations. At all events, we now have a Bill which is very interesting in that it is ring-fenced, with an electrified ring-fence at that. This, we will need to examine very carefully.
I ask my noble friend who is to wind up one simple question. Are there any circumstances in which the investment bank can get its hands on the assets in the retail bank? It is a simple question. I understand the answer is supposed to be, no, but we need to examine the extent to which the ring-fence is really effective. We also have to consider very carefully the question of timing. My understanding is that some of the proposals will not come into operation until 2019. Are we really sure that we are not going to have another financial crisis—for example, if the eurozone collapses before that time? Are we sure that we are taking account of the possibility of the structure not being properly in place when we need it urgently?
I very much welcome the proposals for depositor preference, although it is very much a Treasury-driven idea. It will limit the extent to which the Treasury is liable if a particular bank runs into problems. In effect, if the ring-fence really is electrified and if it really does work, we are moving closer and closer to complete separation. I share with my noble friend Lord Lawson and others the view that ultimately, we should go for complete separation—a Glass-Steagall solution, if you will. This may take some while and meanwhile, to operate a ring-fence in a way that is satisfactory and protects depositors is a move in the right direction.
I have a final point which is very topical. I received a lot of representations from the Community Investment Coalition which was very anxious that we should make progress in providing more local data on the extent to which banks provide finance to small and medium-sized enterprises, and so on. I read, either on the web or in the news today, that the Government are proposing to publish such regional data. If so, that is something that I am sure the organisation I have just mentioned will welcome—it is generally to be welcomed. That is the present situation concerning these developments. I believe that we are making progress, but it is progress in an incredibly complicated situation. We are going to have to give the Bill the closest possible scrutiny in Committee and at subsequent stages in order to get it right. It may not be easy, but it is a job which is very necessary and urgent.
Government Spending Review 2013
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Lord Higgins
My Lords, it is always a great pleasure to follow my noble friend Lady Noakes, and I very much agree with her general theme and her closing remarks.
As I am going to say quite hard things in the context of what my noble friend said, let me stress that I would not for one moment underestimate the difficulty of reducing a deficit. I began that a very long time ago as a new Treasury Minister. We were an incoming Government determined to cut the deficit and, indeed, public expenditure and the size of the public sector. I was sent to see the new Secretary of State for Education, one Margaret Thatcher, who was basically in favour of cutting back the size of the public sector but not her department. I arrived with a long list of cuts, including eliminating the Open University. In the end, after a lot of haggling, I said, “Margaret, we’ll give you a deal. You can keep the Open University and make all the other cuts, or you can make all the other cuts and keep the Open University”. To my astonishment, she said, “I’ll keep the Open University”, so I got my cuts and we and the country got the Open University, which was probably the right decision. The reason I stress this point is because we have to be a great deal tougher than we are being.
I am worried by the constant repetition—it is once again in the Chancellor’s speech—that we have cut the deficit by one third. That means that we are continuing to borrow at two-thirds of the appalling rate at which the previous Government were borrowing. I hope that we can get rid of that expression. It is interesting that it has not changed since this public expenditure round announcement. We are still saying the same mantra. I hope that we can get rid of it.
My concern is that in the light of that statement we can be complacent. We simply must not be complacent. There is nothing more important for the future of this country than getting the deficit down. I am a little worried about some of the presentational side of things. The public sector finance statistics have the heading, “Public sector net borrowing”. It ought to be, “Net extra borrowing”. We constantly hear figures from the Government that overlook the word “extra” when it ought to be there. There is also a very curious quirk in the figures. In the column for public sector debt, the figure is £1,103.6 billion in 2011, but in 2012 there appears to be a miraculous reduction. The statisticians evidently felt that they could not forecast the figure to the last decimal place so they moved the whole figure one place to the right. If you look down the column there suddenly appears to be an enormous reduction. Clearly they could not forecast it, but it is 10:1 that they would have got the last decimal point right if they tried. I hope that we can improve the statistics and that the Minister will bear that in mind.
In his speech, the Chancellor of the Exchequer made two important points. First, he said:
“We act on behalf of everyone who knows that Britain has got to live within its means”,
but he did not go on to say, “but we are still not doing so”. We are nowhere near doing so. This is a matter of grave concern. He went on to say:
“we have always understood that the greatest unfairness was loading debts onto our children”,
from one generation to another. We are making a massive intergenerational change, and we are not dealing with it as much as we should.
As for the overall figures, there is a problem with cutting. The reality is that the previous Labour Government under Gordon Brown raised a series of benefits and other concessions which people now expect. However, he did not have the money to pay for them and neither do we. It is immensely difficult to try to claw back the benefits and increases in public expenditure that he introduced.
We are faced with cuts of £11.5 billion but are told that there is an increase in spending of, I think, £10.5 billion on the high-speed rail scheme, so we are only about £1 billion better off. I may have misunderstood the figures but that is my understanding of the position. Therefore, we are making very little progress. There is clearly a distinction between expenditure on investment and cuts, but we are not doing as much as we should in this regard.
In addition, extra one-off items are included in the cuts to the Post Office pension fund. We have the assets but do not make explicit allowance for the liabilities, so there again we have a problem. The same is true of the arrangements for transferring balances from the Bank of England with regard to quantitative easing. Neither of those provisions is likely to be repeated, at least not on the same scale. We have also gained £5 billion in efficiency savings, much of which relates to public sector pay. I certainly welcome the provisions in the Statement on not awarding progressive pay increases simply on the basis of the length of someone’s employment.
I am also concerned about debt interest. The Chancellor laid great stress on the fact that we are paying £6 billion a year less to finance the debt. That is obviously a great advantage, but it rests on the proposition that interest rates will stay where they are. They might stay where they are for longer than we would like. We have only to look at the American experience to see that trying to unwind quantitative easing produces very emotional reactions in the markets. Therefore, low interest rates might be maintained, perhaps wrongly, for longer than we expect, but sooner or later they will have to go up. As for the public sector finance statistics, what assumption is made about interest rates when calculating the debt interest payments, which fluctuate widely? It would be helpful to know that. As I say, I do not underestimate for one minute how difficult this exercise is, but we need to renew our determination to reduce the deficit by substantially more than we are doing in the review.
Lord Deighton
My Lords, first, I thank all noble Lords for their insights, ideas and challenge. It has been a most fascinating exchange and I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Davies, on holding up the Opposition’s end there. I will address his question about morality straightaway. To me, this is a very simple issue: unless we are able to create a state that can actually afford to sustain itself, those who are most vulnerable will be the most exposed victims of the fall-out from that kind of financial crash. We have to get our ability to afford a welfare state in the right state so that we can sustain it. That is the way that we protect the vulnerable in the long run.
The Chancellor was back with another spending round because we had not defined the spending plans for 2015-16. We took the opportunity to lay out the investment programme through to 2021 because, as I explained in my earlier remarks, we think that it is the right way to provide an environment in which people can plan investment correctly. On the general question of whether anything is really being done about growth for the future, the point is precisely to begin to deliver a programme from which future Governments will benefit. They can quibble over who was responsible for the earlier decisions. These kinds of investments have very long lead times and our planning is trying to break the link between the political and economic cycles. There was some misunderstanding there, in that I do not think anybody was trying to claim more; we were just trying to claim that there is a long-term plan. Public sector gross investment in this decade, 2010 through to 2020, is slightly higher on average than in the previous decade, if you smooth out the peaks and the troughs and take the average.
In terms of delivery today, the noble Lord, Lord Davies, is correct that projects from 2021 and onwards, or in five years’ time, have an impact later. However, the projects we are undertaking now are having an impact. Crossrail is being delivered now—the money in the spending round is for the feasibility study for Crossrail 2. Crossrail will be open in 2018-19 and we are spending something like £15 billion on it. It is the biggest urban infrastructure project in Europe and is going on now, right under our feet. That a very good example of delivery. Similarly, we have upgraded 150 stations, completed more than 30 road projects, opened more than 80 new free schools, delivered more than 84,000 affordable homes and done an enormous amount in rolling out 4G mobile services. There is a significant amount of delivery going on now and we are trying to plan for future delivery. We are trying to accelerate it and make it better value all the way through. I accept the point of my noble friend Lady Noakes that it is not necessarily a good thing just because it is an infrastructure project. We have to evaluate them all, which is what we did in the plan through to 2020. We re-evaluated them all on a zero-budget basis and approved the ones that we thought were most powerful.
My noble friends Lady Kramer and Lord Northbrook both asked about the welfare cap. It will apply to welfare, of course, but does not apply to state pensions. As my noble friend Lady Kramer implied, it will work off the OBR forecast. If the spending is forecast to breach the cap, the Government will have to explain what action has been taken. We will put a buffer in place to ensure that any policy actions are not triggered by small changes. That is how that one works. For the information of the noble Lord, Lord Northbrook, the areas being capped are all in social security: housing benefit, disability benefits, pensioner benefits and tax credits.
The noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, also asked whether we would be focusing on the quick wins in infrastructure and leaving the longer-term strategic projects because they have a longer lead time. It is the portfolio that works; I addressed this earlier. Lots of delivery is going on at the moment and we are trying to put a consistent long-term plan in place. We will, of course, look at local funding of infrastructure projects, of which TIF is one example. Another example is the single local growth fund. The European funds we are allocated will be put into the single pot and be part of that as we devolve responsibility.
I was delighted that the discussion got around to our international competitiveness—I thank the noble Lord, Lord Risby, for giving us the detailed example of what is going on with Algeria. I have spent a lot of my own time dealing with inward investment. This country has a tremendous advantage. Overseas investors really want to invest here. They trust us. They believe in our rule of law. There are many things they like about the opportunities we create here. We are working very hard to exploit this to the country’s fullest advantage. On export promotion we are continuing to fund UKTI. It is in the process of transforming our approach to trade and its support to a very focused business approach.
We had a very powerful discussion about our fiscal position and whether we are moving quickly enough to address what I accept are still very high levels of borrowing. It is absolutely critical that people understand that the deficit each year is extra borrowing—it is adding to the stock of borrowing. I do not think that that is generally perceived or understood more widely. The implications of understanding that properly should focus attention on addressing the deficit as fast as possible.
In defence of the pace at which the Government are addressing the deficit, we are still focused on reaching a balance by 2017-18. We are on that path. There is a plan in place. I am very open to challenges about the paradigm shift, as my noble friend Lady Noakes suggested, that we could be more radical in some of the ways we deliver public services and in some of the ways we have structured the Civil Service. That is a challenge we should set for the next tranche of cost improvement. Without that it becomes very difficult to continue—again, in my noble friend’s words—to “salami-slice”.
My noble friend Lord Shipley asked about whole-place budgets. Community budget pilots have demonstrated that it is possible to do much more by joining up local authorities; I do not think there is any question about that. That is why we talked about the £3.8 billion social care budget that we have set aside. We have also set up a £200 million pot to accelerate joint working among local authorities. Whether we can release the borrowing cap on HRAs is another matter. If we were to do that it would add another £7 billion to public sector borrowing every year. Most of the schemes which creatively try to allow more borrowing at the local level are captured and increase public sector borrowing. That is always the constraint that we are trying to manage.
My noble friend Lord Northbrook asked for a response on public pension cuts. My noble friend Lord Newby and I will certainly get back to him on that.
The noble Lord, Lord Empey, asked why UK pension funds are not investing in UK infrastructure. He is correct to say that that industry is highly fragmented compared to its counterparts overseas. That is why we have worked with the industry to consolidate funds into a pension infrastructure platform of £1 billion. Ten funds have come together so that they can gain economies of scale, develop the expertise to assess those credits and provide us with the scale to begin to get them into that business in the same way that, for example, the Canadians have so effectively prosecuted over the past few years.
I could not agree more with the noble Lord, Lord Haskins, that we need to rationalise the number of funding streams going into skills training. That is why we have set up the single local growth fund so that we can begin to provide that kind of rationalisation.
The noble Lord, Lord Empey, asked about VAT and how it is applied to building. I will get back to him in writing on that.
I thank noble Lords for a very stimulating debate.
Lord Higgins
What is the assumption on interest rates in calculating debt interest payments?
Lord Deighton
I thank my noble friend Lord Higgins for reminding me of that question; I was intending to deal with it directly. There is a ready reckoner in the OBR. Our debt is fixed-rate, so the effect of interest rates going up increases over time as debt matures and as we borrow more. For example, if we had a 1% increase in gilts rates, by 2015-16 that would be costing us just over £4 billion more per annum in debt service costs. That gives a sense of the sensitivity. By 2017-18, it would more or less double to just over £8 billion.
Lord Deighton
That is the impact, but those are not the assumptions. We must consider the impacts, so the assumption is on a stable basis, but that is the sensitivity to change. That is how we measure it.
Future Investment
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Lord Newby
My Lords, the noble Lord is usually very good at reminding us about the financial constraints under which the Government are operating. It is not a case of jam tomorrow and no jam today. As I said earlier, in the housebuilding sector, we are putting more money into building affordable housing and all the big housebuilders have said in the past three months that they are increasing their plans for building private sector housing. The great thing about housing is that it starts quickly. As the noble Lord knows, we just do not agree with him on High Speed 2. We find it surprising, when the rest of Europe and much of the rest of the world are investing very significantly in high-speed rail, that some people in this country feel that it is not a sensible technology and a potential source of economic development.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, for many years, I campaigned for an A27 bypass around my constituency of Worthing. Just before I left the House of Commons in 1997, preparations were well advanced for this to happen. However, the project was dropped completely by the Labour Government. Can my noble friend give me an assurance that he will do everything possible to ensure that the appalling congestion on the A27 is relieved by the building of a bypass as soon as possible?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I apologise that I have not been able to flip through my papers to be absolutely certain what our plans are, if any, for the A27. I will certainly make sure that his representations are passed on to my colleagues in the Department for Transport.
Spending Review
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Lord Deighton
My Lords, I am working on the assumption that we have fulfilled those, but I am sure somebody will tell me very quickly if we have not. It is not a stipulation I am familiar with.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, when the coalition was formed, I stressed that it would be far more difficult to reduce the deficit than was generally supposed. Having been involved in spending cuts in previous Governments, I would certainly not underestimate the task facing the Chancellor. None the less, there is a danger that we are underestimating what still needs to be done. The Government keep repeating the mantra, “Oh well, we have reduced the deficit by a third”. Actually, this means that we are borrowing more at two-thirds of the rate that we inherited from the previous Government.
We are still living way beyond our means, in part because we are paying for Gordon Brown’s proposals, for which there was no money then and for which no money is available now, except by borrowing. Does my noble friend agree that we really have to press on with much more determination in tackling this whole issue and that it would be wrong to say that we are all right just because we reduced the deficit by a certain amount?
Lord Deighton
I agree with my noble friend that managing the public finances responsibly will be a continuing exercise of considerable discipline. On managing current spending, we have introduced the welfare cap on the overall budget as well as the cap on specific benefits that we saw in the previous Budget. Departmental budgets are being managed with discipline. There has also been a real focus on switching from current expenditure to capital expenditure, which should support the enhancement of the productive capacity of the economy and thus help us with tax revenues. Those components should continue to be an urgent and aggressive focus of the Government’s fiscal management.
Bank of England: National Debt
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Lord Newby
My Lords, the noble Lord is right to say that the point at which the national debt will fall as a proportion of GDP has been pushed out by a couple of years. The statements made at the Budget showed that we still believe that it will happen in 2017-18, and the spending round being announced later this week is designed to ensure that we meet that target.
Lord Higgins
My Lords, can my noble friend explain how this process of unwinding is to take place? Does he mean that the Bank of England will sell back the same gilt-edged securities to the market and, in that case, are they likely to have the right degree of duration and so on?
Lord Newby
My Lords, at Question Time with less than three minutes to go, I cannot give a very detailed description. The key point is that the Monetary Policy Committee is committed to working with the Debt Management Office to make sure that, as and when the present situation is unwound, that takes place in an orderly manner so that we do not have undue volatility in the market.