European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Monday 19th March 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, has made a great leap from what I said to what the Daily Mail said.

As to the point about judicial involvement, I will give one example. When I was a Minister of State in the Department of Employment, the European Commission decided to implement the working time directive. We thought that employment law was a matter that required unanimity, but it did so as a health and safety measure in order to have it implemented by qualified majority. The advice that I had as a Minister was that that was illegal and wrong, but I was also told that there was no point in my going to the European court because it has a duty to promote the acquis and I would lose. I do not know whether that advice was correct.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

Does the noble Lord recognise that the transfer from unanimity to a qualified majority was conducted by a Government and a Prime Minister, Mrs Thatcher, from the party to which he belongs? It was in the Single European Act.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, is wrong.

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[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

From past experience, I am sure that various people would like to change places with the noble Lord.

The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, is quite wrong. Employment measures at that time required unanimity. The working time directive was introduced as a health and safety measure and it was argued that it was so that it would require only qualified majority voting, and we would no longer have a veto. The issue was whether it was worth going to the court to argue that that was an improper act.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord has misunderstood what I said, which was that the provision in the treaty that provides for qualified majority voting for health and safety was introduced with the agreement of the Government of the day, whose Prime Minister was Margaret Thatcher.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 14th March 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I am sorry but I think the noble Lord has slightly misunderstood the amendment. It is Amendment 150, and if he looks at it, he will see that it gives Parliament more powers than it currently has, or was envisaged. A further look will show that it is not taking anything away from Parliament. It is ensuring that Parliament gets the powers in not only a formal but a meaningful sense, such that it can make use of those powers to direct the outcome.

This is, after all, the most significant decision that Parliament will take in this period—nobody, I should imagine, could dispute that—and it is the need to do so that makes the case for the amendment. No doubt the Minister will conclude his remarks, as he habitually does—I do not criticise him for it—by asking for the amendment to be withdrawn. Might he not consider, as others have suggested, that the best thing to happen now would be for the Government to accept it?

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

The noble Lord said that the referendum was not binding on Parliament. Can he deal with the point that the then Government spent almost £10 million of taxpayers’ money putting leaflets through every letterbox in the country that said, “Whatever you decide, the Government will implement”?

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I will do my best. I was not and am not a supporter of any Government—I am a Cross-Bencher—but the Government the noble Lord is talking about had a majority in the House of Commons at the time; the Government who are negotiating our withdrawal from the European Union do not have a majority of their own in the House of Commons.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Report stage (Hansard - continued): House of Lords
Tuesday 7th March 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, on the noble Lord’s latter point, it is perhaps worth recalling to the House what the Minister, Mr David Jones, said in the other place:

“The Government have repeatedly committed from the Dispatch Box to a vote in both Houses on the final deal before it comes into force. That, I repeat and confirm, will cover not only the withdrawal agreement but the future arrangement that we propose with the European Union. I confirm again that the Government will bring forward a motion on the final agreement … to be approved by both Houses of Parliament before it is concluded, and we expect and intend that that will happen before the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement”.—[Official Report, Commons, 7/2/17; col. 269.]


In the course of the debate, the Minister repeated those sentences three times, and the shadow Secretary of State, Keir Starmer, to whom I paid tribute in the Second Reading debate, said:

“Minister, I am very grateful for that intervention. That is a huge and very important concession about the process that we are to embark on. The argument I have made about a vote over the last three months is that the vote must cover both the article 50 deal and any future relationship—I know that, for my colleagues, that is very important”.—[Official Report, Commons, 7/2/17; cols 264-65.]


Both Houses will get a vote on the final draft deal, and we do not need any of these amendments. It is a complete distortion to suggest that the amendments before us today—

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords—

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[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord for giving way, but having read out three times what the Minister said in the House of Commons he has revealed that the Minister failed to answer the question that he and the noble Lord, Lord Howard, and others put to my noble friend on what happens if there is a disagreement between the two Houses. Perhaps he could address that, and perhaps he could also put that question to the right person to put it to, which is not my noble friend but the Minister who is going to reply to the debate and who will have ample opportunity to reply to it.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I know that the noble Lord is very experienced. If he does not know the difference between a resolution in the House of Commons and putting in statute a power of veto for the House of Lords, I am very surprised to hear him making that point.

The point about the amendment that we are discussing, Amendment 3, is that it is a wrecking amendment.

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[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I appreciate that I am in a minority in this House, and not just because I am a Scottish Tory. I am in a minority because I support the views of the majority of people in this country. This House is absolutely full of people who still have not come to terms with the results of the referendum. This is a clever lawyer’s confection in order to reverse that result. That is what we are debating. That is what it is about.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

Order.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I have already given way to the noble Lord. He can make his own speech.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords—

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am not giving way to the noble Lord.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord for having arrogated to himself the decision as to what the hundreds of people around this place believe.

The point I was going to raise, and ask the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, to address, is this. Of course the Prime Minister of this country has the ability to ensure that we leave the European Union without an agreement, because of the two-year time limit in Article 50, which the noble Lord has not addressed. That time limit is absolute. It will be triggered within the next few days and, sometime in 2019, it will reach its conclusion. It takes two to negotiate. Since the Prime Minister will be one of them—and the 27 and the institutions of the European Union will be the other—she has the ability to ensure that we leave without an agreement. That is the eventuality that is being dealt with in this amendment.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord makes my point for me. If, after two years, we have no agreement, then we will have left the European Union. I need to conclude my remarks.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Committee: 1st sitting (Hansard): House of Lords
Monday 27th February 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

To be absolutely fair, I spoke to Amendment 22 earlier in the name of the others. I am sure that my noble friend Lord Kerslake will now manage to deal with the aspersions cast upon him.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

Except that I have not finished. Finally, on Amendment 22, there is an interesting idea in subsection (2). Ministers have been extremely active in engaging with Select Committees and both Houses of Parliament. My noble friend Lord Bridges has done an outstanding job in talking and engaging with everyone. There is an interesting idea that perhaps it is possible as we go forward with the Bill to find some way of operating with committees of Parliament with some degree of confidentiality, although experience tells me that dealing with Parliament with some degree of confidentiality is not always easy to achieve. I am just about to sit down but I give way to the noble Lord, now that he is awake.

European Union Referendum (Date of Referendum etc.) Regulations 2016

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 2nd March 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Hunt. I was struck by his comments thanking the European Union for its support for science and research. I will make a deal with him. I will give him £20 and then he can give me £10 back and I will try to understand the logic of his position. We are net contributors to the EU and the money we get back is our money. The difference is that we are told how to spend it by people who are not accountable to anyone.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Perhaps the noble Lord is not familiar with the research that has been done by Universities UK. It states that moneys which come through the programmes of the European Union are worth 1.4 times moneys that come from simple research in the UK without collaboration with others. Before he starts with “It’s our money” he should think of that.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

If the noble Lord had been listening to me, the point that I was making—I am sure he understood it—is that we are net contributors to the EU and therefore what comes back is money that we have already contributed. If we did not have to join the EU we would have that money and be able to spend it on our priorities in science and research.

The noble Lord, Lord Judd—I am not sure whether he is in his place—talked about how Ministers were wrong in the way they operated within the EU. They would come back and announce that something had been a great triumph when it had been a disaster. I confess that I have been in that position. The person who turned disaster into triumph was the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. He is brilliant at taking a disaster and making it look like a triumph—as we saw from his speech when he explained how the Prime Minister’s negotiation was a great triumph. I am delighted to see that he has lost none of skills.

However, the problem still remains. The fact that the Prime Minister, with all his energy and enthusiasm, spent six months going round the European capitals, flying here, there and everywhere, staying up half the night and coming back with a mouse of a negotiation, indicates just how impotent we have become in the European Union, and what is the central issue of this referendum campaign: how can we get back to a position where our Prime Minister can make minor changes to welfare without the permission of the European Union?

I have to say to my noble friend on the Front Bench, Lady Anelay, that during the debates on the referendum Bill, she assured us that the Government would not abuse their position and use taxpayers’ money for a particular position. The documents that have been produced to date are a travesty of these promises. My noble friend Lord Ridley did an excellent job in highlighting some of these points.

I look at the stuff that is coming out from the Government in arguing for remaining in the EU. We are told that 3 million jobs will be lost and that cheap flights and holidays will be at risk. The Chancellor of the Exchequer is abroad saying that our economy will be subject to a great shock, and he is getting some of his chums in the G20 to join in the clamour. How that helps to strengthen the pound, I do not know. Special advisers are getting on to business leaders, cajoling them into signing letters, and generals and others are signing letters. We even have the Governor of the Bank of England—a position that has always been outside politics—saying that our country depends on “the kindness of strangers”—a quote from “A Streetcar Named Desire”, or Emma Thompson running down the country. How any of those things are advancing Britain’s interests, I do not understand.

Of course, there is the big business agenda. Why does big business like Europe? Because it can go to Europe and spend £1.5 billion on lobbying and shut out competition. We had a classic example of that today. Look at the front page of the Times where Europe has suddenly, unexpectedly, decided that vaping should be treated as a tobacco product, so the cost should go up. I wonder who has been lobbying Brussels to achieve that? The tobacco companies and others. Who will suffer disbenefit? The people of this country who, in their hundreds of thousands, have been able to give up smoking tobacco to have vaping.

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Tuesday 1st December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, as the Minister was kind enough to refer to the paternity—or maternity—of this amendment, and as the one I tabled at an earlier stage was the start of this story, I thank her for the great care she has taken in looking at this extremely complex matter. Unlike the noble Lord who preceded me, I shall address only the amendments on today’s Marshalled List and not spend a lot of time on amendments that are not being moved and are not, therefore, appropriate for discussion today. Nor will I claim the credit for this not very likely eventuality being made a lot less so. That should go entirely to your Lordships’ Constitution Committee, which first spotted the risk of gaming and asked for it to be addressed by the House; I responded to that request.

As regards the amendments that we are discussing, I know that the noble Baroness has worked extremely hard on this very tangled subject. She knows that, in my view, the distinction she has made concerning the broadcasting rights is absolutely right: they should not be one-sided under any circumstances, and I made that clear when she discussed the matter with me informally at an early stage. As to the government-funded portion that follows designation, I am entirely prepared to follow her wisdom in this matter. I think the balance has been very carefully crafted and achieves the maximum deterrence to gaming, whether deliberate or inadvertent. That is an important issue because gaming could happen inadvertently or deliberately, and the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, referred to that. We probably now have a text which, if and when the House approves it, will make it extremely unlikely that this will happen, and far more unlikely than the text of the original Bill, unamended, would have done. Therefore, I commend that. I am glad that the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton, will withdraw his amendment. This amendment would merely muddy the waters yet again, and therefore make the risk of gaming, or inadvertent events, more likely. I am delighted that he will withdraw his amendment and offer my support to the Minister.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I am very disappointed that my noble friend will withdraw his amendment but relieved to find at least something during our discussion on this Bill on which I disagree with him. I very much appreciate the way my noble friend the Minister has listened to the debate and brought forward amendments, although, at this last stage, I am very disappointed that she has brought forward this particular amendment, and even more disappointed by the briefing from the Electoral Commission—a body that costs more than half the cost of the entire Royal Family and therefore is very well resourced indeed. The Electoral Commission suggests that this amendment is helpful. The reason I am disappointed by its response is that it is suggesting that, in the event of there being only one campaign, the amount that that campaign can spend should be increased even further. Even at this late stage, we are faced with a Bill that allows one side—the stay side—to spend more than twice as much as the leave side. To my mind, that entirely defeats the purpose of having expense limits, which are meant to ensure that people are not able to buy a result. My noble friend said in her opening remarks that it was very important that the Bill was seen to be fair. Indeed, in moderating the original amendment that the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, put forward, she has made some progress in that direction. However, the Bill remains extremely unfair in that one side is able to spend considerably more, although this amendment takes away the state funding and the broadcasting funding in the event of there being one campaign. I entirely accept that that is a sensible change.

However, I am concerned that the Electoral Commission is judge and jury in its own court. It decides what is a designated campaign. In the event that it decided that none of the campaigns that was in favour of, say, leaving the European Union was suitable, we would be faced, as a result of this amendment, with one side being a designated campaign and having very considerable resources. Everyone who has spoken so far has said it is very unlikely that that would happen. I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, on having spent the entire time that we have spent discussing the Bill trying to amend it to make it one-sided to help his particular cause.

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 18th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, I will speak to Amendment 11 and will respond to the Minister’s very full explanation of how the Government now intend to proceed. I express my gratitude to the Minister for listening carefully to our debate in Committee, when this amendment received support from all sides of the House, and for the courtesy with which she has consulted on the matter in advance of this debate. I am entirely happy to leave it in her hands, to be dealt with by a government amendment introduced at Third Reading. I hope that that amendment will cover not just gaming but pretty well any other happenstance that might occur. Heaven knows, it is probably an “unknown unknown” but the best way to ensure that it does not damage the referendum process is to make an amendment of this sort to the Bill.

I leave this issue in the hands of the Minister and the Government, confident that they will find a way to deal with it, in which case, of course, I doubt that the provision will ever need to be used. That would be very satisfactory, as it would be much better if there were two designated institutions slugging it out in what will be a vigorous national debate. However, we do need to make sure that this issue is addressed. With that, I state my intention not to press the amendment, and again thank the Minister for the efforts she has made so far and encourage her to go further down that road.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I add my thanks to my noble friend for the way in which she listened to the arguments put in Committee. I hate to rain on this parade at this stage but after reflecting on the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, I have one or two worries which I hope that my noble friend will consider before she brings forward an amendment at a later stage in the Bill. As I understand it, this amendment would mean that if there was only one designated campaign, it would still get access to broadcasting time and taxpayers’ money to carry out the campaign in circumstances where the Electoral Commission had designated only one campaign. I entirely understand the concern the noble Lord had, which was reflected in the legislation for the Scottish referendum. Suppose two competing organisations wished to be the lead campaign, and there was disillusion with the decision that had been taken by the Electoral Commission and that was subject to judicial review, and that we got into a position where there was no clarity about the position of an opposition and therefore no alternative campaign. It would then clearly be absurd to put a quango—an unelected, unaccountable body such as the Electoral Commission—in a position where it could effectively ensure that only one side was supported with taxpayers’ resources and the ability to go to the broadcasters. It is highly unlikely that this situation would arise but, as the noble Lord has pointed out, his own worries, which the amendment is designed to deal with, are also highly unlikely. Has my noble friend thought about that, and what is the answer to my concern?

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 4th November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)]

My Lords, I rise to move this highly technical amendment. Other Members of the House may have as much difficulty as I do in understanding the precise wording. As very often is the case when we are working with reference to other bits of legislation, it is a bit abstruse. However, rather than subject the House to yet another lengthy dissertation from myself, I shall read from the Constitution Committee’s report on this point. The committee said that the 2000 Act,

“provides for a designated organisation to be appointed by the Electoral Commission as a lead campaign group for each side of the referendum debate. It does not allow the Electoral Commission to designate one organisation only; for there to be any designated organisations in a referendum campaign at least one from each side must apply … This arguably allows one side in a campaign to ‘game’ the system. If they are well funded but do not want the other campaign to receive the financial and other advantages of designation, then they simply fail to apply for designation. Notably, there was no designation in the Welsh referendum in 2011 because the Electoral Commission took the view that there were no lead campaigners that met the statutory test of adequately representing the ‘No’ side. The danger of gaming was also raised in the context of the Scottish independence referendum. The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 attempted to overcome this potential problem by allowing for the designation of one side only, although in the end two campaigns did indeed apply for recognition … Whilst we consider it likely that there will indeed be applications for designation by each side, the House may wish to consider whether the Bill should be amended to avoid a situation where one side could, in effect, prevent the lead campaign group on the other side from being designated”—

and, of course, from getting funds.

My amendment simply uses the wording of the amendment in the Scottish Act, which the Government agreed to put into the Scottish Act; it is replicated here, I hope in the correct place and the correct way, to have exactly the same effect as took place in Scotland.

It will not have escaped your Lordships’ notice that it never had to be used in Scotland. That is the purpose of moving this amendment. If it is accepted by the Government and put on the face of the Bill, there will not be a problem, because the certainty that one side can get itself designated even if the other side does not, and can therefore be a recipient of funds, will mean that the other side has no interest whatever in gaming the system. So I hope that this can be discussed on a totally technical, non-political basis, because I think that the Bill will be improved by the inclusion of this provision—and once we have included it, we can just forget all about it.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean (Con)]

My Lords, I will speak to Amendment 37 in my name and that of the noble Lord, Lord Blencathra, and also to say how much I support the amendment just proposed by the noble Lord. I think that this might be a first in consideration of this Bill, but I think that it is a very sensible proposal.

Amendment 37 is following the same theme, which is ensuring that there is fairness in the conduct of the campaign. I was rather shocked this morning to read Hansard from the other place, where Mr Chope asked the Deputy Leader of the House of Commons to,

“confirm that the real reason why three independently minded former Ministers are being purged”,

from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,

“is because we voted in favour of a free and fair EU referendum with a strict 28-day purdah period, as recommended by the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission and our Electoral Commission?”.—[Official Report, Commons, 3/11/15; col. 887.]

I do not want to get involved in that particular row, except to say that Christopher Chope, Sir Edward Leigh and Cheryl Gillan are three very distinguished former Ministers, and I am very shocked that they should be removed from the Council of Europe, and even more shocked that it should be suggested that that is the reason for their removal.

I emphasise this point because, whatever the outcome of the referendum, it is important that at the end of it people feel that the Government did not abuse their position—whatever their position turns out to be—and that the campaign was conducted in a fair and balanced way. This, presumably, is why we have the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.

My amendment seeks to remove from political parties their ability, which arises from the 2000 Act, to spend money on the campaign itself. I thought that the whole point of having an Electoral Commission—which, incidentally, costs half the cost of the entire Royal Family—was to ensure that we had fair and balanced conduct of elections and referenda. That is what I thought it was about. I thought the whole purpose in having a designated campaign on each side with limitations on their expenses was to ensure fairness. But what do I find? I find that the Government have brought into the Bill the ability of the political parties to spend money in addition to the designated campaigns. In the case of the designated “in” campaign, it can spend £7 million; in the case of the “out” campaign, it can spend £7 million. That is fair enough; but then on the inside, the Labour Party can spend £7 million; the Liberal Democrats can spend £3 million; the Greens can spend £700,000 and the CBI and other organisations can spend £700,000.

The Conservatives have said that they will remain neutral—and it is very considerably to the credit of the Conservative board that it took that decision.

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Monday 2nd November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I will come on to address these points, because I took the opportunity of checking a few facts. For example, just before the dinner break, I did not know why when we were supposed to be discussing what is in Britain’s interest we continued to discuss what is in Norway’s or Iceland’s interest—but, as people have raised it and have said they want facts, I have found the following quote from the Icelandic Prime Minister from June this year. The noble Lord has already read this quote, but he did not put it in his speech. The Icelandic Prime Minister said:

“'For us staying outside of the European Union has been very important, even instrumental in getting us out of the economic crisis so it has affected us in positive ways, giving us control over our own natural resources, but also having control over our own legislation and our own currency, which if we had not had that, we would not be in the situation where we are now with a very fast improving economy”.

When I said earlier that nobody in Norway wanted to join the European Union and I was shot down and told by the noble Lord that the establishment wanted to join the EU, I thought that I had better check what the position was. I found that seven out of 10 Norwegians would reject EU membership and just 19% would like to join. Seventy-four per cent would say no to Norway joining the EU, with 17% wanting to join—these figures are from an opinion poll in 2014.

The noble Lord mentioned Switzerland. According to a 2012 poll for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation, just 6% of Swiss voters favoured joining the EU against 63% who want the present bilateral arrangements preserved, and 11% who want to join the EEA. There does not seem to be any great feeling in either of those countries that they have made some dreadful mistake; on the contrary, they seem very happy. The Norwegians are very happy with their fish, their oil and their prosperity.

Then we have the bogus argument that says that if you are outside, you have to accept a huge amount of legislation which you would have no say over. I do not know whether the figures in the Daily Telegraph—the noble Lord tells me that that is where they were from—that say that the last 74 times we have objected to things we have been defeated are correct, but those people who argue that we need to stay in to have a say should tell us how effective that say is because the evidence is that it is not very effective. The noble Lord, I know, has conspired with me and other Ministers to turn defeat into an apparent victory in drafting the press release after one such defeat.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord is very kind. He seems to be a glutton for information. May I recommend that he reads two slim volumes produced by an all-party panel, first in 2014 and then 2015, called The British Influence Scorecard? They looked at every part of European policy and concluded that Britain’s influence in the European Union was considerable. I am sure that he would find that a very enlightening read, and it is not as long as some of the documents around.

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[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I agree entirely with all the points that the noble Lord has made. In the context of the late Edward Heath—with whom I got on very well personally while not agreeing with many of his views—that is the same Edward Heath who was elected on a Selsdon manifesto but did a U-turn and came to the conclusion that it was not possible to govern our country without the consent of the trade unions. However, a certain Lady Thatcher was elected in 1975 as leader of the Conservative Party on a manifesto which said that Britain is able to govern itself and that it is possible to restore the authority of Parliament. This resulted in her election as Prime Minister in 1979 and all the things that were said to be impossible were turned around. It was her belief in Britain and its ability to stand proud in the world which transformed our economic achievements during the 1980s.

This fatalism, this extraordinary idea that we are trapped in the European Union and that there is nothing we can do to escape it—that we might as well knuckle under and accept that we have got to be a part of it in order to advance what influence we have—is the politics of surrender.

The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, accuses me of making a campaigning speech. I do not know what he was doing when he wrote his letter to the Sunday Times, signed by other fellow mandarins. I have listened to his amendments and the constant prattling on about Iceland and Norway when they are totally irrelevant to this discussion. Most people in Britain would find it offensive being treated alongside Iceland as an equivalent party. I hope my noble friend will reject this amendment. I do not support it.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

My Lords, we have been on an extraordinary, lengthy digression which bore not the slightest relationship—the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, might like to listen to this as I am referring to his speech—to the amendment we are discussing.

I would like to go back and simply make two points. First, it is not sufficiently recognised that if the electorate were to vote to leave the European Union a decision would have to be taken by the Government—not by the leave campaign—as to what the future relationship they would wish to have should be. The purpose of the amendment is to ask the Government what relationship they would envisage in those circumstances. Is that an unreasonable thing to ask? I do not think so. Every time that the basic issue about Britain being in or not in the European Union has come up, every government White Paper and document has reviewed the alternatives. That was true in the times of Harold Macmillan and Edward Heath, and it was true in both attempts when Harold Wilson sought to join and when he had a referendum. It is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

Judging from the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, I have the impression that he would hate what the Government said they would envisage doing if there was a no vote. He would have every right to riddle it through with bullets as he has riddled everything through with bullets this evening. However, surely it is right that the British people, the electorate, should be told what relationship the Government would envisage if they chose to vote to leave. That is a reasonable thing to ask, is it not?

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Monday 2nd November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am saying that the Office for Budget Responsibility should not do it and I am saying that the point made half an hour ago by my noble friend Lord Flight is absolutely right. These are matters of judgment, and the people who should make the arguments are the people who are on either side of the campaigns. It seems to me, listening to arguments from the noble Lord and from others on his side, that they have got quite a lot of work to do if they are going to persuade the British people to vote to stay in the European Union. Whether or not staying in the European Union is in the best interests of our economy is a matter of judgment. Even in Greece it would appear that a majority of the voters still think that it is in their interests to be in the European Union and within the eurozone. I am very happy to leave that to the judgment of the British people in the referendum.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

Unless I have got it completely wrong, the noble Lord is basically advancing the argument that Governments should not produce economic forecasts at all—they are a complete waste of time, they are always wrong so let us ditch them. However, he supports a Government who regularly produce economic forecasts at the time of the Budget. Those economic and fiscal forecasts are regularly reviewed by the Office for Budget Responsibility and I think we are all a bit the wiser for it. Of course it does not give you the answer to everything and like the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, I would be happy to support the addition by the noble Lord, Lord Blencathra, but this dismissal of all forms of forecasting on the impact on the economy of staying or leaving is frankly to go back about 150 years in the practice of economic policy.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord exaggerates to make his point. I am not arguing against economic forecasting. I am simply saying that the record on economic forecasting is not very good and the Bank of England is a classic example.

This is not about economic forecasting. This is about the effect on the United Kingdom’s economy of withdrawal from the European Union which is a huge issue. It is not just about the implications for the economy directly as a result of taxation or fiscal policy or matters of that kind. It is about the impact of immigration, it is about what happens in terms of the advantages that we would gain by being outside the European Union, our ability to negotiate our own trade agreements, our ability to be free of suffocating regulation, our ability to decide matters for ourselves, our ability to control our borders—all these things will have an impact on growth rates and the future of our economy. I am simply arguing that the Office for Budget Responsibility does not have the expertise or the ability to do that. I am delighted that the noble Lord supports my noble friend Lord Blencathra’s amendment looking at the other side of the equation, which is staying in.

I will repeat a point I made earlier. It is astonishing to me that we are members of the European Union and the arguments that we have heard from the Europhiles—the people who wish to remain in the European Union—have all been characterised in terms of the threats of leaving rather than the benefits which we have. That seems to indicate a degree of uncertainty.

European Union Referendum Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Wednesday 28th October 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord has not dealt with the fundamental point, which is that we do not have a vote in Irish referendums. I have an Irish son-in-law, and I will ask him, but I would be very surprised if people on either side of the border in Ireland lie awake at night worrying about whether or not they might have a vote on the decision that Britain has to take as to whether or not it wishes to remain part of the European Union. That is a pretty poor argument, given that we are concerned here with enabling the British people—British citizens—to decide the future of their country in a referendum in a way that is seen to be fair and equitable.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

I honestly think that the noble Lord is treating in a very light-hearted fashion an extremely serious matter. I have had quite a lot of dealings with the Irish dimension in the context of the Government’s repatriation of some justice and home affairs legislation. If the noble Lord does not think that people are losing sleep on both sides of the border about the possibility that Britain might not be in the European Union, I am sorry, but he has not been reading very much. They are losing a great deal of sleep about that. If that were to result in the reinstallation of border controls, for both people and goods, the results could be pretty disastrous. A lot of sleep is being lost. If we were to move in the direction that this amendment proposes, it would merely increase the agitation.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

It is interesting that the noble Lord is anticipating that we are going to leave the European Union. I did not say that they were not losing sleep over whether or not we would leave the European Union; I said that I doubt they are losing sleep over not having a vote in the British referendum, which is an entirely different point. I am by no means making light of our relationship with Ireland; I think it is very important. However, what people in Ireland are losing sleep over is the amount of money and the destruction that their membership of the euro has cost them. But that is a debate for another day.

The hour is late. I support the noble Lord, Lord Green, and think that the oblique nature of the attacks on his arguments, rather than dealing with the substance of the amendments, indicates that this is a matter that we should return to at a later stage in the Bill.

European Union (Referendum) Bill

Debate between Lord Hannay of Chiswick and Lord Forsyth of Drumlean

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I do not want to detain the House, but the position is quite clear in Scotland. If the Scots vote to leave the United Kingdom, that is that and the Government will get on with it, whoever the Government are, because that has been the clear understanding. We very much hope that that will not happen. It would be extraordinary to amend my noble friend’s Bill to say that it is only consultative, because those people who want to have their say will say, “Why is it one rule for the Scots and another for the rest of the United Kingdom?”. The noble Lord is on very dangerous ground.

[Lord Hannay of Chiswick]

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, has got the balance a little wrong. The noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said that this is a consultative referendum. The question is whether the Bill should say that, to avoid any misunderstanding. If the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, wishes to make it mandatory, my understanding, from what the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, said, is that he must move an amendment. There is no amendment on the amendment paper to say that it is mandatory.

We should stick to where we are, which is the debate about whether the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, should be made to the Bill to remove beyond peradventure any misunderstanding.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

I am most grateful to the noble Lord, but I am sure that what my noble friend meant when he said that it was consultative was that we were consulting the people to get their opinion. When I read the Bill, it seemed quite clear to me that if there was a referendum and people decided to leave or to remain in the European Union, that would be that. If the Bill is amended to say that the referendum is consultative, that is another matter. I am sure that my noble friend Lord Dobbs would also point to the fact that at the end of the day, this will require legislation in Parliament and Parliament will have the last say—of course it will—but I find it difficult to imagine that any Parliament faced with a referendum—