Public Sector Productivity

Lord Hannan of Kingsclere Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hannan of Kingsclere (Con)]

My Lords, I am very grateful to my noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe for introducing the debate and I am acutely conscious of the expertise and experience that others have brought to bear.

I will begin with a point raised by the noble Lord, Lord Patel, and the noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, about the difficulty of measuring productivity. Of course, that is absolutely true, but as a rough guide for a ballpark figure I looked at what the OBR had to say. It produced a report in 2022, which found that in the private sector productivity was back to 1.6% above where it had been on the eve of the pandemic, but in the public sector it was still down by 7.4%. If we carry on losing productivity in the public sector at this rate, we will suffer a further 20% decline within a decade, which the Centre for Economics and Business Research says would be the equivalent of £73 billion per year of extra spending. Think for a second about that: £73 billion per year. Think of the rows we have in this Chamber about the relatively trivial sums involved in the winter fuel payments or VAT on school fees.

Why is that happening? There are structural reasons why there is greater productivity when there is a profit motive; I think we all accept that. But why is the gap widening? What has changed recently? I think my noble friend Lord Patten was exactly on the button. About a year after the pandemic, when everything was supposed to have got back to normal and when my right honourable friend Jacob Rees-Mogg was a Minister, he was presented with a fait accompli by his officials. They said that he absolutely had to sign the lease on a building for a government agency or an arm’s-length agency in central London. He said, “Why do they need to be in this expensive place?” and they said, “Oh it is absolutely vital, Minister. It is actually walking distance from here: let’s go and have a look”. Of course, he found that there was nobody there. Hence, he began the campaign of dropping his—I thought rather polite—calling cards saying, “Sorry you weren’t at work”, which of course created a furious backlash from the Civil Service trade unions. But there are jobs that require you to be there.

Like the noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, I used to work in newspapers. In fact, for a while I worked for the noble Baroness. I am sure she will agree that there were jobs, even then, long before the pandemic, that obviously could have been done from home. If you are doing the sudoku or writing the pets column or something, there is absolutely no reason to come into the office. It struck me even 20 years ago as slightly wasteful that people were doing that. But, equally, there were an awful lot of jobs, particularly the editorial jobs, where you really had to be there talking to people. How many of the civil servants absent from their desks are in the second category? I think there are rather a lot.

I think we can all see the impact on productivity. I was certainly struck by it when I walked around the cavernous, echoing and rather beautiful corridors of the Old Admiralty Building when I was involved with the Department for Business and Trade. It is extraordinary how immediately the impact is felt of people not being there for meetings, not talking about things and not sparking ideas off each other in the fallow times.

The point I really want to make—I will make it very briefly in deference to the Minister’s throat—is that this is a choice. There are problems the Government cannot avoid, such as the ageing population and the changing ratio of workers to pensioners, but this is a choice. You can give large pay rises to public sector workers, but you are then left with less money to grow the rest of the economy. What you cannot do is keep giving these pay rises at the same time as increasing their numbers.

There were two very large increases in the Civil Service that both had a temporary and contingent cause. One was the repatriations of powers after Brexit, which required people to do them at home because they were no longer being done in Brussels. The other was the pandemic, which required more people to be brought in for testing and for vaccination and so on. Both of those bumps are now in the rear-view mirror. Under the plans of the previous Government, numbers were supposed to fall back towards where they had been and there was a scheduled loss of 66,000 personnel. That was quietly reversed as almost the first thing the new Government did.

There was a time when the arguments were about economics and taking from the haves to give to the have-nots. What we cannot have is simply an argument about taking from the private sector to give to the public. Private sector workers already have worse pension deals. They are already required to be in the office more and they already work longer hours. We cannot keep squeezing the revenue-generating bits of the economy to fund increases in the revenue-consuming bit.