Baroness Neville-Rolfe
To ask His Majesty’s Government what steps they are taking to improve productivity across the public sector.
Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)
My Lords, you might say that securing growth in productivity is the most important issue we face—it is certainly the most important economic issue. This is because in the long run the overall rate of growth in productivity is reflected in the rate of growth in the economy, and from economic growth virtually everything else flows. We are debating public sector productivity today, but many of the same problems are found in the private sector.
I acknowledge that there are a few utopians who might think that this is a mercenary view of life, but a very large majority of us want to be better off personally and to benefit from improvements in the provision of public services—education, transport, healthcare and defence, for example. Better services need money, and a bigger economy provides more money via taxes. The best measure of our economic prosperity is probably GDP per head, and on this the recent history is disquieting. GDP per head in the UK has scarcely risen since the start of the financial crisis in 2007 and it is among the worst in the OECD.
It reflects the fact that productivity suffered a huge hit during the financial crisis, partly because of the importance of financial services to the UK economy. After a modest recovery, matters deteriorated again during Covid. As the IMF said in May:
“Although the UK has done better than peers in terms of total hours worked, the drop in labor productivity growth, the key driver of living standards—from around 2 percent pre-GFC to around ½ percent thereafter—has been noticeably bigger than in other advanced economies”.
Although the IMF refers to labour productivity rather than productivity, the two measures are closely related.
Part of our problem is cultural. Many—probably most—of us do not think of efficiency much of the time. In particular, there is a wilful disregard in the body politic for the costs of bureaucracy and monitoring. Like other noble Lords, I take part in the debates in this House on legislation. I have taken careful note in recent years and I regret to say that virtually every amendment to a Bill that we discuss would, if accepted, have the effect of increasing the cost of doing things, reduce efficiency and/or hit growth and dynamism. SIs and guidance can be even worse. Do noble Lords pause to consider whether the cost of the amendments they advocate is proportionate to the benefit hoped for? I fear the answer is often no.
The truth is that much of what government does affects the private sector, so the public sector contributes in two ways to the productivity problem: in what it does to others, such as in the huge build-up of financial, energy and environmental legislation in recent years, and in what it does in the way it organises itself.
We need to limit our interventions to matters where it is really needed, such as safety. We have too big a rulebook and that means a bigger, less efficient state. We need to change the culture. If I were put in charge, I would require a new productivity and growth assessment, like the equality assessment, on every proposal for a new policy, an SI or a Bill. Indeed, it should replace the equality assessment, which has had its day. Productivity assessments could be short, but a requirement for them would make our civil servants and lawmakers view changes through productivity spectacles. I would be interested in the Minister’s thoughts on this. It could make her and her Treasury colleagues new allies in the pursuit of value for money.
I am afraid that the figures for public sector productivity are even less positive than those for overall productivity. As the graph in the excellent Library Note makes clear, public sector productivity is significantly lower than in 1997, with the modest increase in the 2010s entirely eliminated by Covid and with the NHS a particular concern. I look forward to hearing from the noble Lord, Lord Patel, on what can be done. I believe working from home has also been a productivity sapper, with almost comic inefficiencies. As we heard from Guy Adams of the Mail recently, only 17% of the Business and Trade civil servants were coming in to work in their glorious Old Admiralty Building.
What else can be done? I am leaving to one side the obvious points, such as improved skills and education and the timely application of capital, so that I can make less obvious points from my own experience in business, the Civil Service and as a Minister in four departments, including the Treasury.
The first change needed is better management. The public sector needs fewer layers with simpler, flatter structures and wider spans of control. In the Cabinet Office when I was a Minister, one-third of staff were one on one. Government is also top-heavy. When I was at Tesco, I noticed that our considerable success was achieved without the CEO having a large private office staffed by people with their own agendas. This helped with clear focus and direction and a deep understanding of the business. It also limited the office politics. The contrast with Downing Street could hardly be greater.
I come back to the management of the public sector. There is a need for focus, which I think the Government are seeking with their new missions, but also for more delegation. For example, the Institute for Government has found that allowing nurses to self-roster reduces turnover. Other key areas where the public sector could learn from commerce are to mandate more comprehensive induction training for outsiders, who often fail in the Civil Service but bring vital skills, and training on easing out poor performers fairly. This seems likely to be even harder under Labour’s new employment rights Bill.
We also need a culture and working methods that help us to avoid mistakes. This includes both big things, such as HS2, the failings of the Post Office, and infected blood, and smaller things, such as letting some of the wrong people out of prison last month or setting the heating systems incorrectly in public buildings. We need to learn how to get things right first time because it avoids waste and mistakes. AI is making that easier—for example, on diagnostics from hospital scans. Equally, in my book it is okay to take risks and fail, but only if you learn from the experience. At the top of Tesco, we spent a lot of time in stores modestly carrying out routine tasks, observing what went wrong and seeing how policies and retail productivity could be improved.
We have a very big canvas for improvement. A recent paper by the University of Exeter Business School discusses the fact that virtually the same services were and are provided in similar NHS organisations and how this duplication allowed substantial efficiency improvements to be identified and made, amounting to £1 billion. The authors argue persuasively that the same approach could be used elsewhere in the thousands of organisations in the public sector. It is a great pity that, in awarding £9.4 billion to the public sector in above-inflation pay rises, the Government failed to impose productivity requirements on public sector workers. I know from experience that restrictive practices are hard to tackle and easier to remove with the warmth of a pay rise.
Public policy also effects productivity in the private sector. I said earlier that legislation often includes measures which reduce productivity unnecessarily. I turn to another current example: net zero. A lot can be done with small steps that have wide application, such as the transition to LED bulbs and putting porches on to retail stores, which quickly pay for themselves in lower energy bills. However, some of the measures to counter global warming now being taken by this Government—in particular, shutting the North Sea early—will hasten net zero neither in the UK nor globally. It will, however, ensure that the UK’s net exports are reduced, and it will reduce overall UK productivity, thereby making us all poorer, most notably the workers on oil rigs, as their trade union has pointed out. This is all for no rational reason. Public regulation will have reduced the productivity of the private sector and made it more difficult to deliver the growth and wealth we need for the future.
Improving productivity is a subject I feel passionate about because it can unlock great benefits. To be honest, it is rather a big subject for a short debate, but I am very keen to hear other ideas, build up alliances and ensure that the need to increase productivity is properly considered in all public sector decisions. I thank all those who are kind enough to speak and especially look forward to hearing from our new Minister.