Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord O’Neill of Gatley on 6 May (HL7841), what was the actual level of UK GDP estimated in each of the three alternatives studied, and in the case of remaining in the EU.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
HM Treasury did not produce a forecast of how big the economy would be in 15 years’ time. The analysis of the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, provided an assessment of the difference in the size of the economy under the alternatives to EU membership for a given economic forecast. This showed that GDP would be 3.8% lower in an EEA arrangement, 6.2% lower in a negotiated bilateral agreement and 7.5% lower in a WTO arrangement. These are all central estimates.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what estimate they have made of the (1) EU GDP, and (2) UK GDP, per household in 2030 in each of the three scenarios in the HM Treasury analysis <i>The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives</i> (Cm 9250) published on 18 April.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
In ‘HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives’ the central estimates for the annual loss of UK GDP under the 3 alternatives (relative to remaining in the EU) in 2030 are: 3.8% in the case of the EEA, 6.2% in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement, and 7.5% in the WTO case. Expressed in 2015 terms that means a loss of GDP per household of £2,600 for the EEA case; £4,300 for the negotiated bilateral agreement case; and £5,200 for the WTO case.
No estimate has been made of the impact on the EU GDP per household. This reflects a cautious approach, as, for example, the main estimates for the effect of leaving the EU do not take into account the negative economic impacts on the rest of the EU as a result of UK exit or the possible foregone benefits to the UK of future EU reform.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the remarks by Lord Faulks on 2 March (HL Deb, col 928), how many of those families of EU migrants in the UK that are supported by the benefits system receive child benefit alone.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
The information requested is not available.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what specific benefits are covered by the proposed safeguard mechanism set out in paragraph 2(b) of Section D of the draft Decision of the European Council published on 2 February; in particular, whether (1) Child Tax Credit, (2) Working Tax Credit, and (3) Housing Credit will be included in the proposed restrictions on access to in-work benefits.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
Details of the proposals for restricting in-work benefits for EU nationals will be subject to further negotiation and we cannot speculate on these.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government how many persons were paying National Insurance contributions in the most recent period for which data are available, and how many of those were citizens of the EU10 countries at the time they first registered for a National Insurance number.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
In 2012-13 it is estimated that 26.8m individuals are liable to National Insurance Contributions from earned income or self-employed profits across the different classes of National Insurance.
This is estimated using the latest available outturn from the Survey of Personal Income (SPI) for 2012-13. The SPI does not contain information on the nationality of individuals in the sample.
Calculating the number of individuals in 2012-13 who were paying National Insurance Contributions who were citizens of the EU when they first registered for a National Insurance number is complex and cannot be done quickly.However, HM Revenue and Customs are planning to produce more data early in 2016 on this issue.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what was the total budget in each of the last five available financial years for (1) the Ministry of Defence, and (2) the Department for International Development.
Answered by Lord O'Neill of Gatley
The Ministry of Defence expenditure (Total DEL excluding depreciation) for the last 5 years was:
2010-11: £37.355bn
2011-12: £37.157bn
2012-13: £34.259bn
2013-14: £34.450bn
2014-15: £34.368bn
The Department for International Development expenditure (Total DEL excluding depreciation) for the last 5 years was:
2010-11: £7.467bn
2011-12: £7.813bn
2012-13: £7.758bn
2013-14: £10.020bn
2014-15: £9.650bn
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the practical impact on United Kingdom productivity of net migration of 165,000 per year over the next five years.
Answered by Lord Deighton
The government does not forecast either UK GDP or GDP per capita. The independent OBR in the March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) used the central ONS migration population projection. The ONS central migration projection is for net migration of 165,000 a year in 2018/19 and 2019/20. In the March 2015 EFO the OBR forecast that UK GDP per capita for those aged 16 and over will increase by 9.2% total between 2014 and 2019.
In order to inform policy making, the government reviews and notes the wider evidence on the economic and productivity impacts of immigration on an ongoing basis. This evidence base includes the wider academic literature, and a range of reports commissioned or produced by the government looking at specific impacts, for example those produced by the independent Migration Advisory Committee. In addition, policies that influence migration are assessed using the government's impact assessment process which models the economic impact of the policy change using assumptions based on a range of evidence and the academic literature. Home Office Impact Assessments are published on gov.uk.
Asked by: Lord Green of Deddington (Crossbench - Life peer)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their estimate of the change in United Kingdom per capita gross domestic product that they would expect over the next five-year forecast period if net migration was at 165,000 a year.
Answered by Lord Deighton
The government does not forecast either UK GDP or GDP per capita. The independent OBR in the March 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) used the central ONS migration population projection. The ONS central migration projection is for net migration of 165,000 a year in 2018/19 and 2019/20. In the March 2015 EFO the OBR forecast that UK GDP per capita for those aged 16 and over will increase by 9.2% total between 2014 and 2019.
In order to inform policy making, the government reviews and notes the wider evidence on the economic and productivity impacts of immigration on an ongoing basis. This evidence base includes the wider academic literature, and a range of reports commissioned or produced by the government looking at specific impacts, for example those produced by the independent Migration Advisory Committee. In addition, policies that influence migration are assessed using the government's impact assessment process which models the economic impact of the policy change using assumptions based on a range of evidence and the academic literature. Home Office Impact Assessments are published on gov.uk.