Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord O’Neill of Gatley on 6 May (HL7841), what was the actual level of UK GDP estimated in each of the three alternatives studied, and in the case of remaining in the EU.

HM Treasury did not produce a forecast of how big the economy would be in 15 years’ time. The analysis of the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, provided an assessment of the difference in the size of the economy under the alternatives to EU membership for a given economic forecast. This showed that GDP would be 3.8% lower in an EEA arrangement, 6.2% lower in a negotiated bilateral agreement and 7.5% lower in a WTO arrangement. These are all central estimates.