Autumn Statement

Lord Eatwell Excerpts

Wednesday 5th December 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Eatwell]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, for formally introducing the Statement. In a way, it is a pity that our new convention does not involve repetition of the Statement for there is no doubt that the Chancellor is to be congratulated on the positive morsels that he managed to identify in a very frugal, even miserly, meal.

Three central facts are revealed in this Autumn Statement and the accompanying OBR report. First, the OBR assesses growth this year to be at minus 0.1%. It had expected plus 0.8%, so it is a reduction of about one percentage point. For next year, 2013, it has downgraded its growth forecast from 2% to 1.2%. I fear that next March the ever overly optimistic OBR will be downgrading its forecast once again. Therefore, the growth outlook is rather bleak.

I wish to refer for a moment to paragraph 1.14 of the Autumn Statement, dealing with the sectoral composition of growth in the UK economy. It argues that, if we leave out the financial sector and the North Sea oil and gas sector, the rest of the economy has done comparatively rather well. That is rather like saying that, if we leave out the bowlers, the batting average of the team tends to go up. This is a disreputable piece of analysis and I hope that we will never see its like again.

The second fact revealed in the Autumn Statement is that, compared with the forecast made just last March, the deficit is up in every year of the forecast. Noble Lords may be rather surprised by that assertion because, if they listened to the Chancellor’s Statement, they will know that he seemed to claim the opposite. How can I claim that the deficit is up? I can quote the OBR, which says that,

“policy decisions by the Government and reclassifications have reduced [public sector net borrowing] this year by £16 billion, more than offsetting forecast changes which overall have pushed borrowing up £4 billion”.

I repeat: policy decisions and reclassifications—in other words, fiddling the figures.

What does this fiddle consist of? The main component in padding the numbers is the asset purchase facility transfer of £11.5 billion from the Bank of England to the Treasury. In principle, this seems okay—after all, we are told that the Japanese and the Americans do it too—but what is striking is that no allowance has been made for the requirement expressed in the letter from the governor agreeing to this transfer that, if and when interest differentials change, the Treasury must pay the money back. Will the noble Lord tell us what contingency has been made by the Treasury for transfers back to the Bank in the next five years and what impact this contingency might have on the deficit?

The third fact that is clear in this Autumn Statement is that the end of austerity has been postponed for another year. The noble Lord, Lord Sassoon, has referred us before to his belief that the deficit programme is a five-year rolling programme. So every year the end of austerity is always five years ahead. Like middle age, it retreats before you. Now it has been extended from 2017 to 2018. Under this rolling programme which always extends, austerity will always be with us and it is clear why. We are travelling in the wrong direction, away from growth and away from debt reduction. Surely now is the time to ask why. Why are the British people being subjected to this unending economic misery that is not only cutting living standards now, but as the OBR points out, will cut living standards in the future as productive potential is undermined by low investment and the corrosive impact of unemployment?

In the realms of economic policy there are two entirely different approaches to cutting public indebtedness. The Government’s approach is based on the belief that eliminating the deficit is necessary to produce growth: austerity is the necessary precursor to recovery. Noble Lords will remember that there was even a new expression coined for this approach, “expansionary fiscal consolidation”—a term that seems to have been dropped from government usage in the past year or so. The idea was that cutting the deficit, aligned with a supportive monetary policy—that is, low interest rates—would restore business and consumer confidence, stimulate spending and set the economy on the road to recovery. For the past two and a half years, the UK economy has been the guinea pig on which this theory has been tested. The result: interest rates in a no-growth economy are predictably roughly zero in real terms, but ever looser monetary policy is producing ever less discernible results. Indeed, there is now no discernible result.

Has business confidence returned? The OBR says:

“Lack of confidence regarding the outlook for global and domestic demand is leading firms to postpone investment decisions”.

Has household confidence returned? The OBR states:

“Our forecast for real household disposable income growth is weaker than in March”

It adds that this,

“is expected to constrain household spending”.

So if households are not spending and businesses have no confidence and are not spending, where is the recovery to come from? Net trade has a negative impact on the economy as markets overseas stagnate and the Government are cutting net spending, so making things yet worse. The experiment has failed and the British people are paying the price of the failure. The plans to spend something on infrastructure are welcome after the savage cuts of the past two years, but notice that government investment was down 20% last year and another 9% cut is forecast for this year. The infrastructure plans are a drop in the ocean. Even their impact on demand is offset by the fact that they are to be funded by cuts elsewhere.

On top of all this, the Funding for Lending scheme is not working and the Work Programme is not working. No wonder that in summing up the whole impact on growth of the policy measures in this Autumn Statement, the OBR says they have,

“a limited impact on our economic forecast”.

All the Chancellor’s rhetoric about growth signifies nothing. The Chancellor indicated in the Statement that he intends to make significant cuts in benefits for those out of work, on top of cuts to welfare expenditure announced earlier this year in the Budget. Unfortunately the data supplied in the Autumn Statement do not include the analysis of the distributional impact of policy measures as do Budget documents. Could the noble Lord tell us what is the net impact of the measures announced today on the lowest decile of income recipients?

The most extraordinary aspect of this Autumn Statement is that the Chancellor has implicitly recognised that his policy has failed but is continuing with it none the less. If the policy was working, if expansionary fiscal consolidation had a shred of credibility left, instead of extending austerity to 2018 he would be doing more of it now—let us get on with it, get it done and put us on the road to recovery—but he has lost the courage of his convictions and not found the courage to admit the failure of his policy. There is another way, another approach to cutting the deficit, and that is by stimulating growth that cuts the deficit, not cutting the deficit and hoping that growth appears.

However, growth depends on confidence in growing demand. It requires a substantial infrastructure programme; investment in education and research; substantial reform of the banking industry to deal with the difficulties identified the other day by the governor; and a British investment bank to lead the way in funding the investment that demand would stimulate.

The dreadful growth figures and the slowness of the recovery comprise the worst economic performance of our economy in attempting to come out of recession for more than 100 years. We cannot go on like this. The Government must recognise that their core policy has failed and have the courage to face that fact.