Scotland’s Fiscal Framework

Lord Dunlop Excerpts

Wednesday 24th February 2016 Lords Chamber

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Scotland Office (Lord Dunlop) (Con)]

My Lords, with the leave of the House I will now repeat a Statement made in the other place by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Scotland. The Statement is as follows.

“Mr Speaker, with permission I would like to make a Statement about the new fiscal framework for Scotland, which was agreed yesterday by the United Kingdom and Scottish Governments.

I begin by paying tribute to everyone who has worked so hard to arrive at this point: my right honourable friend the Chief Secretary and the Deputy First Minister, John Swinney, who have led these negotiations with skill, and the dedicated teams of officials from Her Majesty’s Treasury and the Scottish Government who have worked tirelessly on behalf of their respective Governments. They can all be proud of what has been achieved and the service they have given.

This is a truly historic deal that will pave the way for the Scottish Parliament to become one of the most powerful and accountable devolved parliaments in the world. We have respected all the principles set out in the cross-party Smith agreement and delivered a deal that is fair for Scotland and fair for the whole United Kingdom. As the noble Lord, Lord Smith, himself said yesterday evening:

‘When the Smith Agreement was passed to the Prime Minister and First Minister, both gave their word that they would deliver it into law - they have met that promise in full’.

Scotland’s two Governments will give more details in the coming days, but I would like to set out a few key elements of the deal.

The Scottish Government will retain all the revenue from the taxes that are being devolved or assigned, including around £12 billion of income tax and around £5 billion of VAT. The block grant to the Scottish Government will be adjusted to reflect the devolution and assignment of further taxes and the devolution of further spending responsibilities. We have kept our commitment to retain the Barnett formula, extending this to cover areas of devolved welfare. For tax, we will use the UK Government’s preferred funding model. Under this model, the Scottish Government hold all Scotland-specific risks in relation to devolved and assigned taxes, just like they do for devolved spending under the Barnett formula. That is fair to Scotland and fair to the rest of the UK.

However, for a transitional period covering the next Scottish Parliament, the Governments have agreed to share these Scotland-specific risks as the powers are implemented. Specifically, the Scottish Government will hold the economic risks while the UK Government will hold the population risks. So the Scottish Government will not receive a penny less than Barnett funding over the course of the spending review simply due to different population growth. By the end of 2021, a review of the framework will be informed by an independent report so that we can ensure we are continuing to deliver Smith in full, with the Scottish Government responsible for the full range of opportunities and risks associated with their new responsibilities.

We have also agreed that the Scottish Government will have additional new borrowing powers. This will ensure that the Scottish Government can manage their budget effectively and invest up to £3 billion in vital infrastructure. In line with the recommendation of the Smith agreement, we will provide the Scottish Government with a £200 million share to set up the new powers that they will control.

The Government have delivered more powers to the Scottish people, ensuring that they will have one of the most powerful devolved parliaments in the world and the economic and national security that comes with being part of our United Kingdom. That is what we have agreed and what we have delivered in full. Now that we have agreed this historic devolution deal, the conversation must move on to how these new powers are to be used.

The Scottish Government will have extensive powers over tax, welfare and spending. They will have control over income tax and be able to change the rates and thresholds. They will be able to create new benefits. The permanence of the Scottish Parliament is also put beyond any doubt.

The people of Scotland voted for these new powers and deserve to hear how parties in Scotland will use them—new powers that, if used well, can grow Scotland’s economy and population, and bring greater opportunity and prosperity. Now that we have agreed this fiscal framework, I hope and trust that this House and the other place will welcome it while of course subjecting it to full scrutiny. I commend this Statement to the House”.

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[Lord Dunlop]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lords, Lord McAvoy and Lord Stephen, for their support and their response to the Statement. This deal provides an opportunity to move the debate in Scotland on from process to policy, as the Secretary of State for Scotland said in the House of Commons earlier. The noble Lord, Lord McAvoy, talked about the rules for Report, and that is a matter to be discussed through the usual channels.

Turning directly to the point about time to scrutinise the deal, again, as the Secretary of State made clear to the House of Commons, my strong expectation is that the agreement will be published tomorrow and available to noble Lords. I will write to all Peers making it available to them. I also take this opportunity to offer an all-Peers briefing tomorrow with the Treasury.

The issue of intergovernmental relations was raised. I know that this is a matter of great interest; the Constitution Committee has issued a report on it. The noble Lord, Lord Smith, said:

“There should be no doubt that this was a highly complex package of measures to agree. It is difficult to imagine a bigger test of inter-governmental relationships … This provides an excellent basis for constructive engagement between the governments long into the future”.

That is what gives me hope that it will be possible to reach agreement when we come to the review in five years’ time. We must use the time in between to build those intergovernmental working relationships. The fact that this review will be informed by an independent report will help in that process. To address directly what the noble Lord, Lord McAvoy, asked, this will be a review without prejudice and a review by agreement, and it will not be imposed.

The noble Lord, Lord Stephen, talked about full fiscal autonomy, and I have to say that I look forward to the day when the SNP tries to reconcile the no-detriment principle with separation.

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[Lord Dunlop]

On that last point, absolutely I believe that this is a deal that is fair to all parts of the United Kingdom. That is what the Smith agreement was all about—being fair to Scotland and fair to the UK as a whole. That is what this deal delivers.

To address directly the first of the two points that the noble Lord raises—and this was a point that came up in the House of Commons—on the cost of the deal to England, Wales and Northern Ireland, there is no additional cost to the taxpayers of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This deal produces the same outcome as Barnett set out in the comprehensive spending review. There is no adverse impact on UK taxpayers.

On the noble Lord’s other issue—I forget what it was; oh yes, it was the point about transition—the Scotland Bill, that delivers the Smith agreement, is a significant act of devolution. It represents a new world and an opportunity for a new politics in Scotland, one in which blame can no longer be heaped at Westminster’s door. It is absolutely right to have a review on how the far-reaching arrangements are working in practice to ensure that, as my right honourable friend says, they are fair, transparent and effective in line with the Smith agreement.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab)]

While I join in the welcome given to the Statement and the agreement, is the Minister aware that at this very moment HMRC offices in Scotland are being closed and thousands of people put on the dole? Is not this a stupid thing to do at a time when there are going to be more responsibilities on revenue and customs in Scotland?

[Lord Dunlop]

I assure the noble Lord that we are very confident that the delivery of these powers will go ahead as intended.

[Lord Selkirk of Douglas (Con)]

In view of the fact that I asked the second Question yesterday, I feel entitled to give the Minister warm congratulations on his part in securing this agreement on the fiscal framework. Does not this pave the way for the debate in Scotland to move forwards and focus fully on how the new and extensive powers should be used?

[Lord Dunlop]

I thank my noble friend for his words. We are months away from elections to the Holyrood Parliament and, as I said earlier, the deal opens the way to make sure that that debate is on the right terms—about how each of the political parties competing in that election will use those powers, and not the perpetual debate about what those powers are.

[Lord McCluskey (CB)]

At the risk of mixing my metaphors, although they will be well understood by all Members of this House, have we not, for the duration of this Bill, been burying our heads, ostrich-like, in the sand, while turning a blind eye to the elephant in the room? Did we awaken yesterday from our slumber to kick a hornets’ nest into the long grass where we hope that the English will not notice it and the Welsh will be ignored? I shall translate that for those who have not followed this debate. The elephant in the room is, of course, the Barnett formula. The hornets’ nest is also the Barnett formula because if anyone disturbs the Barnett formula, the hornets will fly out. The blind eye is the decision by tame Scottish politicians, supported by the UK Government, to continue Barnett without discussion of its inequities or its notorious unfairness, particularly to Wales. The long grass is the five or six-year period. The question simply is this: will the documents to be published now or in the next five years show clearly the extent to which the rest of the UK is contributing towards this expenditure by the Scottish Government?

[Lord Dunlop]

As I said earlier in answer to another question, there is no additional cost to taxpayers in other parts of the United Kingdom. We have had many debates in this House about the Barnett formula. There are many former Secretaries of State who, when they had the opportunity to get rid of the Barnett formula, did not do so. Indeed, some of those Secretaries of State take great pride in arguing for more resources for Scotland. They were very effective at doing it, and I pay tribute to them for that. However, when proposing a move away from the Barnett formula, with the idea that there is some easy solution that would do away with the hard negotiation that is required with the Scottish Government, I am at a loss to know why we would expect the SNP to fight Scotland’s corner any less strongly than former Secretaries of State did.

[Lord McConnell of Glenscorrodale (Lab)]

My Lords, given that the Prime Minister was able to publish the details of a far more complicated deal with the European Union when he made his Statement to the House of Commons on Monday, why is the full fiscal framework not in front of this House this afternoon? I do not understand why in the light of that the Government cannot be more specific about what will happen in five years’ time if agreement is not reached on this independent review. What will be the status quo at that time should an agreement not be reached?

[Lord Dunlop]

As I said, today is the final day of the Scottish Budget. That is why we do not have the fully published document today. There are a few minor technical and implementation issues from the agreement that need to be finalised. However, I have given a commitment to the House, and my strong expectation is that that agreement will be published tomorrow.

[Lord Tebbit (Con)]

My Lords, will there be anywhere a cash limit upon the amount of money which English taxpayers will be required by this agreement to pass across the border for the benefit of Scottish consumers?

[Lord Dunlop]

I can only repeat what I said earlier: there is no additional cost to the taxpayers of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[Lord Beith (LD)]

My Lords, while there is general support in the north-east of England for Scottish devolution and its progress to date, does the Minister recognise that there will be real resentment if it becomes apparent over time that there is substantially more money available for public services on the Scottish side of the border than on the English side and that that resentment will undermine English support for the maintenance of the United Kingdom, which would be very unwelcome if it happened?

[Lord Dunlop]

I absolutely understand what the noble Lord is saying. That is why we have sought a deal that is fair to Scotland and to the rest of the UK.

[Lord Lang of Monkton (Con)]

My Lords, I compliment my noble friend on his modesty on leaving out of the Statement the one line in which the Secretary of State for Scotland in another place complimented him on his invaluable contribution to these matters. I welcome the fact that the conclusion of the negotiations has been reached, at least to the extent that it now enables the legislation to pass into law once it has finished its progress through this House and, at long last, bring the Scottish Government to a degree of accountability for their actions before the Scottish people. My noble friend referred to the review to take place in five years’ time. Can he confirm that when that review is produced by this independent body, it will be implemented without any further interruption or interference by either the Scottish Government or the UK Government?

[Lord Dunlop]

Once the review is complete, it will be for the two Governments to reach an agreement. However, I need to say to my noble friend that this is a very significant act of devolution. In future, more than 50% of the Scottish budget will be financed from taxes that are raised in Scotland, and that is a major development.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea (Lab)]

My Lords, with the current concentration on Scotland, there is a danger that Wales will be sidelined. Perhaps we too should have had a referendum. Is the Minister aware that Cardiff University has just produced research for the Welsh Government suggesting that Wales will lose out massively as a result of the Chancellor’s personal tax allowance changes? Will we be compensated for that?

[Lord Dunlop]

Obviously discussions are going on between the UK Government and the Welsh Government about the fiscal arrangements for Wales. I am sure, as this deal has been successfully concluded, that they will be successfully concluded as well.

[Lord Higgins (Con)]

My Lords, the Statement concludes by saying that the fiscal framework should be subject to full scrutiny. How is that to be achieved in your Lordships’ House when the Scotland Bill has already reached Report stage and we will be operating under the restrictions that we always do on Report and at Third Reading? Should those restrictions not be removed, given the situation that we are now in? Secondly, the perpetuation of the Barnett formula means that the injustice between England and Scotland is going to be perpetuated as well. That cannot possibly be regarded as fair.

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[Lord Dunlop]

I think I have covered the rules of Report in an earlier answer. As I say, with the funding arrangements we have sought to strike a balance that enables these powers to be transferred to the Scottish Parliament while respecting the “taxpayer fairness” principle that applies across the rest of the UK.

[Baroness Janke (LD)]

My Lords, in the light of what others have said, along with the fact that the Barnett formula is seen to be extremely unjust and unfair to other parts of the UK, will an analysis be produced of the impact of the new fiscal arrangements in Scotland on the other parts of the UK? Many local authorities are now suffering such dire cuts that public services are in severe danger of being lost in many parts of England, to my knowledge. With this announcement, there ought be a proper analysis of what impact it will have on local services in England and the rest of the UK.

[Lord Dunlop]

The review will look at how the funding arrangement is operating against the Smith agreement. I remind the House, because this is often forgotten, that the Smith agreement says that it should,

“aim to bring about a durable but responsive democratic constitutional settlement, which maintains Scotland’s place in the UK and enhances mutual cooperation and partnership working”,

and should,

“not cause detriment to the UK as a whole nor to any of its constituent parts”.

That is something that the review in five years’ time is going to have to take into account.

[Baroness O'Neill of Bengarve (CB)]

My Lords—

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[Baroness O'Neill of Bengarve (CB)]

My Lords, is the implication of this agreement that the Barnett formula is, as it were, the acquis communautaire which provides the baseline against which fairness is judged?

[Lord Dunlop]

During this transitional period, the protection that is put in place ensures that what was the case with regard to the numbers in the comprehensive spending review will be delivered over this period.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My Lords, I, too, commend my noble friend Lord Dunlop for his perseverance, stoicism and patience in bringing these important negotiations to a conclusion. Does he consider that the real clout to be delivered to Scottish politics by the Bill and this fiscal framework agreement is to relish the prospect of a very reluctant SNP Government being compelled to accept fiscal and economic responsibility for their political decision-making, and that one of the most important components of any review will not be what happens in this place, the other place or in the Scottish Parliament but will be the views and expressions of the Scottish electorate, who may be suffering from the impost of some of the Scottish Government’s policies?

[Lord Dunlop]

I very much agree with my noble friend. The whole purpose behind this is that the Scottish Government should be held fiscally accountable for the decisions they take so that they should be able to reap the rewards of the good decisions they take and bear the risks and costs of their bad decisions.

[Lord Elder (Lab)]

My Lords, on that last point, the Calman commission, of which I was a member, tried to find a way to ensure that the success of the economy in Scotland led to an increase of government funds and tried to tie in revenue for the Scottish Government to the success of the Scottish economy. The Statement appears to be saying that whatever goes on in the background, it is all down to Barnett and that however the numbers are made up, it ends up being Barnett. In what substantive terms is that a change?

[Lord Dunlop]

As the Statement made clear, if the Scottish economy grows more slowly than the UK economy as a whole, that risk will be borne by the Scottish Government.

[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope (LD)]

My Lords, can the Minister help us by expanding a little on set-up costs; he mentioned a figure of £200 million. Would that apply to the departmental expenditure limit from the DWP on the costs of the administration of the new social security powers that will be available to the Scottish Government in the future?

[Lord Dunlop]

The figure I mentioned is a one-off implementation cost to transfer the powers over and the systems that go with them. It is not an ongoing cost.

[Lord Elton (Con)]

My Lords, I leave policy to others better qualified than myself, but process is important. So that my noble friend shall not forget the intense interest on this and other sides of the House in that process and the ability of this House to scrutinise what will be put before it, I remind him that a simple procedure and a way of satisfying that would be to take parts of the Bill in the same order as they were in Committee, and that when we get to Parts 2 and 3, the Bill should be recommitted to Committee for those two parts.

[Lord Dunlop]

I thank my noble friend but I cannot commit to what he asks. We have already moved a Motion to consider on Report the Bill in the same order in which we considered it in Committee, which was precisely to allow time for this agreement to be reached and published, and to allow your Lordships’ House to scrutinise it.

[Lord Berkeley (Lab)]

My Lords, in answer to a previous question the Minister rather proudly announced that 50% of the revenue under the new arrangement would come from the Scottish taxpayer. Does that mean that the rest of the revenue will come as a subsidy from the UK Government?

[Lord Dunlop]

No. It has always been the case—right from the start of these discussions—that a block grant would continue. However, we are providing for more of the budget to be financed from the tax revenues raised in Scotland.

[Lord Sutherland of Houndwood (CB)]

My Lords, I live on the other side of the border from my noble colleague Lord Beith but not far from the border. I share his perception from that side of the border of the impact of not talking about Barnett. Will the review’s terms of reference include looking at the consequences of retaining the Barnett formula?

[Lord Dunlop]

As I said earlier, this is an open review and it does not establish a default position. It will be for the Governments to set the terms of reference and the remit, and those will be decided in due course.