Ukraine

Lord Campbell of Pittenweem Excerpts

Thursday 9th February 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)]

My Lords, I very much regret that I cannot accept either the analysis or the conclusions of the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours. However, I know from personal experience that he is a man of principle and commitment; I must say, I very much admire the fact that he has consistently argued against the overwhelming opinion of support for Ukraine and what it is doing in both this House and the other place.

It is a particular pleasure to follow my friend the noble Lord, Lord Soames. His lineage is beyond reproach; likewise his contribution to this debate. I look forward to hearing him again, not least when we are both members of the International Relations and Defence Committee where he will, I am sure, make a much-valued and well-informed contribution.

On analysis, it seems to me, perversely, that Ukraine presents both certainty and uncertainty. We see daily certainty on the part of Russia’s illegal brutality. Reference has already been made to Russia’s aim in the debate, but I would put things slightly differently: it is clearly to dismantle the state of Ukraine, destroy its infrastructure and eradicate its identity. Ukraine’s aim is to survive. That is an uncertain aim, not least because it has lost 40% of its economy and 25% of the value of its currency. It has also given up 15 million refugees and we see its infrastructure being destroyed daily. Russia, on the other hand, is certain in its conduct. Ukraine is uncertain in its future. The only thing that they have in common is the fact of the casualties—the dead and injured—the precise numbers of which are not being revealed but are certainly estimated to be very substantial indeed.

Out of that, the conclusion is inevitable: to survive, Ukraine must win. On the other hand, leaving aside the possible political and other consequences for Mr Putin, Russia can afford to lose. Its economy has survived sanctions with a little help from its friends—albeit with damage, as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, pointed out. Its infrastructure is untouched. Its alliances have survived. Its statehood has suffered nothing. It is still proving an obstacle to the activities of the Security Council of the United Nations.

Let me put my conclusion a little more dramatically. Ukraine must win or be destroyed. As well as that, and of equal importance in the long run, is that if the credibility of NATO is to be preserved, Ukraine must not be destroyed. This involves the continued supply of top-quality equipment to Ukraine. However, top-quality equipment comes with some obligations. It requires top-quality maintenance and top-quality training. If these things are necessary for the proper use and taking into action of tanks, they are so much truer when we consider the possibility of fast jet aircraft. Let us remember that the older the aircraft, the more demanding the maintenance.

I question whether the United Kingdom has sufficient aircraft to release fast jets while maintaining the defence of the home country and fulfilling our obligations to NATO. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, referred to the combat air patrols. I add that we maintain a flight in the Falklands for obvious reasons. I add that the Quick Reaction Alert, based at RAF Lossiemouth and RAF Coningsby, necessarily requires the presence of Typhoon aircraft. I am still tempted to call it Eurofighter, but in the interests of unanimity I will call it the Typhoon.

Notably, the Prime Minister has promised pilot training but not aircraft. That is a well-informed decision. I have sought to raise in writing with the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, who will close this debate, that there are some legal implications to be drawn from Russia having used an aerial bombardment of drones armed with missiles to mount indiscriminate attacks on infrastructure and citizens of Ukraine, contrary to the principles of humanitarian law. If it could be established that the manufacturers of these drones and the suppliers in Iran knew what they were likely to be used for and the extent to which they would breach the principles of humanitarian law, liability could be attached to them also. The issue is worth investigation. Without sounding too dramatic, I rather think that the principle was established at Nuremberg.

This issue will not be resolved by economic sanctions or diplomacy. It will be won or lost on the battlefield. That is the imperative for the supply to Ukraine of the means to win. This is a bloody war, and we are in for the long haul. I leave your Lordships with not a prediction but a possibility. In the event that Mr Putin were successful, might not triumphalism encourage him to turn his attention to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia? If Mr Putin were defeated, for his own survival he might then be tempted to turn on Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. If that were his conduct in either circumstance, we most certainly would be in for the long haul, because that would trigger Article 5.