AUKUS
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(1 year, 11 months ago)
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Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, while the events in Ukraine and the Middle East have understandably engrossed the world’s attention, we have seen developments in the Indo-Pacific that signal its increasing geopolitical centrality: in 2022, China struck a security pact with the Solomon Islands; in January, Nauru switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China; and, a month ago, Papua New Guinea confirmed early-stage talks with Beijing on a security and policing agreement. Post AUKUS, Chinese-driven media activity across several Pacific island nations demonstrates that China regards the agreement as a major impediment to its geopolitical ambitions, as does its concerted diplomatic pressure on smaller nations across the region.
I do not question the aims of AUKUS, but I have three questions about our approach to realising those aims and our capacity so to do. The first is about the future of submarine warfare. The last two years have seen advances in uncrewed submarine capabilities by our allies and our strategic adversaries. In Russia, the K-329 Belgorod submarines emerged—unmanned nuclear-powered submarines that purportedly offer nuclear-strike capabilities, as well as deterrence support. Last year, North Korea unveiled its first nuclear-armed unmanned submarine.
While encouraged by our own Project Cetus, I ask whether any assessment has been made of the extent, if any, that crewed, nuclear-strike submarines will have been superseded by the time Australia is building SSN-AUKUS boats. Given the rapidity of relevant technology advances, it would be useful to know if any such work has been or is likely to be commissioned.
Secondly, on our industrial capacity, can we meet our obligations under the AUKUS agreement’s optimal pathway? Each of the last Astute-class submarines under commission took around 130 months to complete. We are told that HMS “Agincourt” will commission after a 99-month build. Why does the MoD believe that we will be able to complete work on HMS “Agincourt” 31 months more rapidly than we did for the previous four submarines in the class and 13 months faster than BAE Systems has ever built an Astute?
Lastly, on the reliability of the MoD’s financial estimates, on 7 December I asked why the three services have different approaches to cost forecasting, with the Navy and RAF including predicted costs for the capabilities planned while the Army includes only what it can afford. The noble Earl the Minister said that he was in “entire agreement” on the question of consistency and conceded that in 40 years of looking at budgets he had
“never seen a budget that resembles anything like this one”.—[Official Report, 7/12/23; col. 1570.]
On top of this supervening inconsistency, we have seen the NAO describe the MoD’s equipment plan to 2033 as “unaffordable”; the MoD’s own worst-case forecast concedes a funding gap of almost £30 billion. What financial contingencies has the Minister’s department instituted or considered to ensure that we meet all our pillar 1 and 2 AUKUS obligations? Any assurance in the Minister’s answers to these questions would be extremely welcome.
Iran: Military Power
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years ago)
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Lord Browne of Ladyton
To ask His Majesty’s Government what recent assessment they have made of Iran’s capacity to project military power beyond its borders.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)
My Lords, the Ministry of Defence regularly makes assessments of our adversaries’ ability to project military power beyond their borders and how this may affect UK interests. We continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, including Iran’s destabilising actions in the region. The UK has long condemned Iran’s reckless and dangerous activity in the Middle East. Iran’s support to militant groups directly counters UK interests. The Government are committed to working with international partners to deter Iran’s destabilising activity, including by holding Iran to account at the UN and maintaining our permanent defence presence in the region.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, Iran arms—including by supplying Shahed drones—trains and funds militias and political movements in at least six countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Syria and Yemen. This is because it is a revisionist state seeking to change the regional order. Possession of a nuclear weapon would magnify its ability so to do. This would embolden not only Iran but its proxies, which is why preventing that must continue to be a foreign policy priority. What measures are we taking with allies and regional partners to ensure that Iran is not able to achieve nuclear weapon status? If we are to adopt a more stringent policy to frustrate Iran’s objectives, deepening engagement with regional partners will be critical. What is His Majesty’s Government’s assessment of the state of our alliances in the region? How are we seeking to enhance these relationships and to bolster our partners’ resistance to Iran’s proxies?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
The noble Lord makes a very thorough and important point. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution and are prepared to use all diplomatic options to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon, including, if necessary, triggering the JCPOA snapback mechanism, which allows for the rapid reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran. Along with partners, including the US, France, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UK is leading international efforts to deter Iran. This includes keeping international focus on Iran to dissuade it from proliferating, stopping the supply of weapons components into Iran, and deterring potential purchasers of all Iranian weapons.
Conventional Weapon Stocks: Expenditure
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, a lot of orders are outstanding, as I have just said, with an enormous amount coming through in the next 12 months. We are replacing everything that we have gifted to Ukraine as expeditiously as we can. As I think I have described once before, this is a holistic view. We are not just replacing like for like; we are taking advantage of improvements in technology to ensure that we have the correct weapons to meet the threat that defence faces.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, Russian shell production—not shell orders—next year is assessed to run at 4 million per year. The Secretary-General last week asked member states to increase arms production. In response, arms manufacturers, including Norway’s Nammo, suggested that this would be possible only if Governments shared risks with manufacturers, given the scale of the capital investment needed. Therefore, what discussions are we having with our NATO partners about formal mechanisms through which this can be achieved?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
The noble Lord raises an extremely important and valid point. Noble Lords will know that NATO placed an order for 155 mm artillery shells on 23 January worth $1.2 billion. We have also placed two orders with BAE Systems and invested in its production capacity to ensure that we can also take delivery of the right amount of 155 mm shells. I understand that it has increased the production rate by eight times.
Afghan Relocations: Special Forces
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, I will certainly take up that question about the British Council. The Government are absolutely clear about their responsibilities under ARAP and ACRS, and are doing their absolute best to ensure that we end up with a fair and equitable solution.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, I welcome the fact that the Government have undertaken to review all those applications that were deemed to be ineligible. Some of those very brave men are in hiding in Afghanistan, and some of them are in Pakistan, but some are here. In the chaos of leaving Afghanistan, they were all denied access to the evacuation flights. They all knew the Taliban knew where they lived. They were forced, in those circumstances, to get here by irregular and dangerous routes. Will the Ministry of Defence undertake not to make them ineligible for ARAP because of the way they got here?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, my understanding is that that is absolutely correct. Everything is being considered on a case-by-case basis, and the information now needs to be as pure as it possibly can be to enable us to decide whether those employees of the Afghan Government are eligible to relocate into this country.
Royal Navy: Drone Attacks in the Red Sea
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My noble friend makes a very good point. The French are extremely supportive, but of course it is each sovereign nation’s decision whether or not to become lethally involved.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, given the importance of Sea Viper—the missile that was used to shoot down these drones—to our operational capacity, what plans do we have to follow the example of the United States and prioritise work on a transportable rearming mechanism? This is a technological advance that would allow HMS “Diamond” and other vessels to reload vertical launch missiles at sea, rather than putting into port as they presently have to do.
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, that is a very good point. Sea Viper is extremely effective, and there is a new version, which I think is called Sea Viper Evolution. A very substantial amount of money—about £400 million— is being spent to upgrade that. Rearming at sea is something I am not particularly knowledgeable about, so I will find out and write to the noble Lord.
Former Afghan Special Forces: Deportation
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years, 2 months ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, the noble Baroness makes a very good point. The accuracy of the data held on large numbers of people requires double- checking and checking again. At the heart of approval under ARAP is the accuracy of exactly what these individuals did.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, in responding to a question about specific individuals in the other place, the Armed Forces Minister told the House that His Majesty’s Government
“do not have the employment records of the Afghan special forces”.—[Official Report, Commons, 11/12/23; col. 631.]
Today, I was informed by a very reliable source that, until at least August 2021, our embassy in Kabul held nominal records for members of CF333 and ATF444, for the purposes of their “top-up pay”. They were in our employment and, until at least August 2021, His Majesty’s Government held their employment records. Surely, they still exist?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, I am not certain that the word “pay” is accurate. I think expense recompense is more appropriate, which is different: you gift something and get something back. If the records are there, we will follow them down. I was not aware that they were held.
Ministry of Defence: Equipment Plan
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years, 2 months ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
The noble Baroness makes a good point. In fact, there is considerable investment in skills—particularly in the areas of nuclear and shipbuilding—within these figures, all of which are costed. She is absolutely right that the skills gap that the industry is facing is entirely being funded and down to government.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, following on from the most important question arising from this report, raised by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, I wish to make a couple of points to the Minister and ask him a question. First, this report, like all NAO reports, was agreed by the department.
Secondly, the report specifically says that the equipment plan
“does not reflect all the cost pressures to develop new and support existing capabilities set out in the 2021 Integrated Review”,
which was updated in March this year. I recollect that the then Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, said that the extra £5 billion was welcome but that £11 billion was needed.
Thirdly, the report highlights the fact that the individual services have differing approaches to preparing the forecast in the plan. The Navy and the Royal Air Force include predicted costs for the capabilities that the Government expect from them while the Army includes only what it can afford. These issues need immediate attention, do they not? They should be attended to immediately.
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, I agree with much of what the noble Lord has said. One of the key points about the NAO report is that it does not reflect the aspiration to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP when economic and fiscal conditions allow. If one puts that back in, it obviously completely changes the finances.
On the question of consistency, I am in entire agreement. I am very new in this role. I have looked at budgets for the last 40 years and I have never seen a budget that resembles anything like this one, and that is not just the absolute figures. The way in which it is constructed means that it is very difficult to get to exactly the way in which the money moves around. That is something that I commit to the House that I will learn and then lose not much more sleep over.
King’s Speech
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, in welcoming the Minister to his new post, I congratulate him and wish him well. I associate myself with the words of gratitude, admiration and commendation for the work of the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, and I thank her for her service. I also congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Roberts of Belgravia, on an excellent maiden speech. Conscious of the short time available, I shall limit myself to a few general, diagnostic observations.
Among all too many other conflicts, this debate is taking place against the backdrop of the unspooling tragedies of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and hostilities between Hamas and Israel. On the latter, we have all been appalled by the scenes of destruction and death that we have seen over the last six weeks, including the savagery of Hamas and the wholesale abandonment of civilised norms.
I hope that the Prime Minister’s pledge in Monday’s Lord Mayor’s speech to help to create a “new political horizon” in the Middle East presages a degree of unity, at least in the UK’s response to this crisis. My honourable friend Rachel Reeves, speaking yesterday, rightly stated:
“The way to stop this killing and the way to save lives is for the international community to come together”
and for pressure to be applied to Hamas to secure the release of Israeli hostages. She also exhorted Israel to show restraint in imperilling the lives of innocent civilians.
Unity on these questions, and others in the geopolitical sphere, would conform with the stated aim of the King’s Speech: to look to the long term, making measured, strategic decisions in the interests of the nation’s security. Israel must be allowed to defeat Hamas and recover its hostages but, as politicians of all stripes in the UK, as well as the US Secretary of State, have made clear, that should not be interpreted as a licence for disproportionate, retaliatory violence against Palestinian civilians.
Of course, no international order can guarantee freedom from conflict, but the fractured global response to the crises in Eurasia and the Middle East is indicative of a deeper failure to preserve the rules-based international order. Until recently, that phrase was widely accepted as a fact rather than, as at present, a receding aspiration. When we examine Chinese intentions, Russian bellicosity and the reluctance of emergent powers in the global South formally to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, it is clear that the ebbing power of the rules-based international order is not merely a product of western decay; it is equally a product of that consensus being deliberately rejected by powers that have glimpsed the prospect of, and actively seek, an increasingly rivalrous and multipolar world.
So I am forced to ask myself whether the phrase “international community” encompasses a statement of fact at all. While the NATO powers, including Britain, showed coherence in their response to the aggression in Ukraine, the reaction from other quarters has veered between ambivalence and disinterest. India has been walking the tightrope of studied neutrality. The current Prime Minister of Pakistan describes his world view as being “every nation for itself” and responded to questions about his country’s historic defence relationship with the United States by describing China as his nation’s “all-weather friend”. In that context, and in the light of the UK’s declared Indo-Pacific tilt in foreign policy, it is also worth mentioning the first ever joint Chinese-Pakistani maritime patrols that are currently under way in the Arabian Sea.
The response from Latin America has been coloured by lingering resentment towards the West, with the US and Europe being criticised for stimulating the fighting by supplying armaments to Ukrainian forces. How can the phrase “international community” be anything other than an oxymoron at present, when we see a false moral equivalence drawn between unprovoked aggression and the provision of support for a beleaguered friendly power?
Conscious of time, I merely mention the quickening drive for de-dollarisation among the BRICS countries, the re-emergence of nuclear blackmail as a diplomatic strategy, the inability of NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine early last year and increasing tensions in the western Balkans as further symptoms of the splintering of the international community.
We are faced with a darkening international picture. There are two overlapping schisms, one between the global North and South and the other between those who subscribe to a rules-based international order and those who regard that phrase as an evasive euphemism for western hegemony. It is in the intersection between those two increasingly divergent groups that British foreign policy must direct its efforts.
These are weighty questions with which to grapple, and it is in all our interests that the newly appointed Foreign Secretary, the future Lord Cameron, is successful in engaging them. They are not insoluble. Given that the new Foreign Secretary’s recent political resurrection makes the rising of Lazarus look rather prosaic, I hope that his diplomacy on behalf of the United Kingdom meets with equal success. As Martin Griffiths, the Under-Secretary of State for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief at the UN, said this morning, the world is in a parlous, sorry state. It is incumbent upon us all to do what we can to change that.
Armed Forces
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, in opening, I associate myself with the words of gratitude to the noble Lord, Lord Soames of Fletching, for securing this important debate and add my words of admiration for his excellent introductory speech.
In essence, today’s debate is about the measurement of aspiration against reality. The simple questions are: does the UK have the military resource it needs to meet our obligations and can we, in fact, defend our country and its interests in a fracturing, increasingly multipolar world?
The Command Paper published in July outlined the geographical and strategic breadth of the challenges we face. Our ability to shape events in our favour depends on our military, our participation in NATO and other bilateral defence relationships and our new Indo-Pacific tilt. NATO is critical in this context. In theory, the UK is supposed to have the capacity to provide a warfighting division to NATO if needed. When asked about the readiness of our warfighting 3rd Division before the Defence Select Committee in July, the CDS responded by saying, that the “vehicles are really old”, the division is “lighter than we want” and that, in order to offer much more than a brigade in this scenario, we would need the gap to be filled by our allies.
Our position of influence within NATO is not static. If our capacity weakens, our influence will weaken with it. It is no accident that General Sir Tim Radford, who was, until July, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, warns that at present, cuts to the size of the UK’s Armed Forces mean that we are only “just holding on” to our leadership role within the alliance.
This reflects the consequences of a wider set of political choices. The number of total deployable active-duty personnel is smaller than the US Marine Corps and is smaller, in fact, than at any time since the Napoleonic Wars. A senior US general earlier this year said that the shrinking of numbers in our military meant that we were barely a tier 2 military power, let alone a realistic aspirant to tier 1 status.
The conflict in Ukraine has upended any hypothesis suggesting that sophisticated military technology has rendered the role of soldiers, sailors and airmen obsolete. I understand that, as in all areas of life, technology diminishes the need for human agency, but the size of our Armed Forces is still a factor in assessing their strength The British Armed Forces are simply too small. This is not a fringe or minority view, but one shared by several former Chiefs of the Defence Staff. It is especially concerning that we continue to face recruitment challenges even when overall numbers are so small. This is true across all three services, with figures to March this year showing an intake decline of 14.6% for the Army, 16.6% for the RAF and around 22% for the Navy. Like others, I hope that the Government’s response to the Haythornthwaite report will see significant progress made in this area.
In today’s economic context, spending decisions are not between good or bad, but between necessary and urgent. In preparation for these proceedings, I had occasion to look back at other recent debates, both in your Lordships’ House and in the other place, on these issues. In addressing concerns around our military capacity, the ministerial answers I read frequently sought to encompass two irreconcilable positions. We have been told, often in the same statement, that economic stringency imposes regrettable restrictions on our ability to build the defence capacity we need, while being just as solemnly assured that our existing capacity is adequate, indeed ample, to meet all foreseeable needs. That is like having at the same time a Dickensian miser whispering in one ear and Dr Pangloss in the other. If our current capabilities are indeed ample, restrictions are not regrettable but responsible. If they are not, we must revise the scale of our ambition accordingly.
During my time as Secretary of State for Defence, I had the privilege to meet countless service personnel, and was always awed by their dedication, courage, patriotism and resilience. We often ask our troops to do the impossible, and with startling frequency they do just that. In speaking, I seek not to question their bravery but to ensure that the three services have what they need to engage with maximum effectiveness the challenges posed by our strategic adversaries.
Military Vehicles: Repair
Lord Browne of Ladyton Excerpts(2 years, 5 months ago)
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Baroness Goldie (Con)
My noble friend makes an important point. To reassure him, these factors are taken into consideration before a gift is made. For example, we consider in what state we would reasonably give equipment to allies, because we have to take into account the availability of spares, the time to bring vehicles up to standard and the implicit costs of that. We are always realistic. Indeed, my noble friend will be aware that we have made a number of donations of vehicles to Ukraine. These have proved to be very helpful.
Lord Browne of Ladyton (Lab)
My Lords, given the continuing challenge of getting the Ajax programme on track and the verdict of the Defence Select Committee that defence procurement is “broken”, these decisions are particularly concerning. Is it not the case that many of the scrapped Challenger tanks will have been some of our least used vehicles? My recollection is that they were returned from Germany in working order and were in storage for 15 years—since I was the Secretary of State. Can the Minister comment on this and explain how we can ensure that such short-sighted decisions cannot be repeated?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
On Ajax, as the noble Lord is aware, a corner has been turned, thankfully, and good progress is being made. On the Challenger tanks, the noble Lord will be aware of the upgrading taking place now to create CR3—Challenger 3—tanks from innovated and improved CR2 tanks. But the noble Lord might be interested to know that money has also been given to the Army to ensure that, in addition, a cohort of CR2 tanks is upgraded so that they are available to operate with Warrior until the full transition to CR3 has taken place. As the previous Secretary of State for Defence made clear, we will consider whether the lessons of Ukraine suggest that we need a larger tank fleet. That is under consideration.