Non-Domestic Rating (Multipliers and Private Schools) Bill (Second sitting)

(Limited Text - Ministerial Extracts only)

Committee stage
Wednesday 11th December 2024 Public Bill Committees

[David Simmonds]

Q Thank you very much. There has been an extensive debate about VAT, although that is outside of the scope of this Bill. We have spent a good deal of time debating the impact on special educational needs schools, a significant proportion of which are in the private sector. Some are paid for directly through fees charged to parents; some are paid for through education, health and care plans supplied by local authorities. Do you have a view about how the measures in the Bill will impact special educational needs provision?

Dr James: I have every sympathy with the families of children who have a variety of special needs, and I do not want to see them suffer in any way, but I want to address one of the points that private schools make, which is that the parents are virtuous and self-sacrificing because they pay again for education and thereby relieve the state of a burden.

In this country, unlike countries in the eurozone, we have a sovereign Bank of England, which creates the pound sterling. It is not revenue constrained, even though the Government usually tend to behave as if it were by convention. There are real economic factors that restrict the amount that it is wise for the Bank of England to produce, or to allow the Government to spend into circulation, but the availability of money is not a limiting factor. There is therefore no inherent reason why the state cannot provide education for children with special educational needs; it is just that various Governments of various complexions have chosen not to do so.

The question is always about the transition, because whatever we do, things are not going to change overnight. You do not want to disadvantage pupils who are currently in the system or will shortly go into the system, but there are workarounds. I do not know whether you remember this, but the parent of a child with special needs was going to be one of the people put forward to front a judicial review to challenge this proposal, and she pulled out when significant funding was found, so there are workarounds if the will is there. In the longer term, there is no inherent reason why it has to be done by the private sector.

[The Minister for Local Government and English Devolution (Jim McMahon)]

Q Thank you, Dr James, for taking the time to give evidence today. We are particularly interested in the evidence you have amassed on the impact of this proposal. Where should the Government focus in mitigating the impact during the course of the process? To take what I think I have heard, the evidence you have provided is that, as a starting principle, the Government do not need to go here because there are plenty of other options, but the fact is that we have chosen to go here. What we are trying to get from the evidence sessions is that, within the decision that has been taken—

Dr James: I am sorry; I am having a bit of difficulty hearing what you are saying distinctly.

[Jim McMahon]

I think that rather than hearing a case from the evidence sessions that asserts that this does not need to happen, which we have just spent five minutes doing, it would be helpful to get a sense from you, given that the decision has been made to do this, of your assessment of the impact and the mitigations you would propose, within the scope of what is being proposed, to counter that.

Dr James: For schools providing for special educational needs, you can always amend the Bill to exempt certain types of school, or certain situations with certain pupils. There is a bigger question of social justice: it is well known that the alumni of private schools are disproportionately represented in all sorts of professions, including Parliament. I have a quote here from a paper that that says that parents know that what they are paying for is lifelong membership of an exclusive and superior club. Talk about saying the quiet bit out loud! We can provide scholarships and exemptions for special educational needs, but—

[Jim McMahon]

Q But those are provided for in the scope of the proposed legislation. Schools that have more than half of their intake of children in that situation would be exempt—for those in receipt of a local authority EHCP.

Dr James: That indicates how far there is a problem with this and how far this is being used as a stalking horse to try to frustrate the bigger objective of reducing social inequalities.

[Jim McMahon]

Q If it is a stalking horse, it is a fairly mild one. The impact, even if every pound was passed on per pupil, is just over £300 a year—less than £1 a day.

Dr James: I am sorry; I am having difficulty hearing what you are saying.

[Jim McMahon]

These are evidence sessions where we try to glean insights that we have not previously had to inform the Bill and any potential changes. But I am struggling to get from the evidence so far a real sense of the impact. If there is a pound for pound impact with this measure—the business rate treatment for private schools—it amounts to, on average, just over £300 per pupil if it is passed on in its entirety, which is less than £1 a day. On that basis, what assessment has been made on the impact of that from your perspective?

Dr James: I have not actually looked at the impact of this particular measure in detail. I have looked at the impact of the taxation in general, but—

[Jim McMahon]

Q But not on this measure. I am happy to conclude my remarks.

[The Chair]

If we speak closer to the mike, it will pick us up—the witness is not hearing.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Simmonds]

Q May I follow up with a further question, specifically on pubs and hotels? We are aware that the nature of those premises often does not lend them to easy conversion into another business use, unlike a lot of retail shops, for example, which could change between offices and use by different kinds of businesses. Mr Alton, you highlighted sustainability as a concern, given that the Bill, although it embeds it permanently, represents an increase in the business rates cost. What further steps would you like to see taken to help to ensure that sustainability, particularly of hotel and pub premises, is supported through the system?

Steve Alton: Building on that point from a pub perspective, it is about rebalancing taxation overall for pubs, and making it fair. We have always consulted with Ministers and officials across Government on solutions. Our members will always argue for VAT to be reduced on pub sales, because they saw that support in the pandemic and it was an instant injection of cash into their business. It was not about profiteering. Kate alluded to the fact that a pub is a low-margin business. It needs to be profitable because pubs need to continue to evolve the model and invest in what they are doing. We all want to go to great pubs, which do exist. Some of them, despite all these challenges, are doing very well, but they are the outliers. It is the mid-pack operators, who have been doing this for decades and have had long-term viable businesses, who now, frankly, face some very tough decisions.

We are incredibly concerned. At the moment, pubs are all busy looking after customers, which is great; you will see pubs at their best. In January, when it gets quiet and they reconcile the numbers, and there is a head-over-heart moment, I fear that we will lose a lot. If it is one in four, that could mean that we lose up to 15,000 pubs. They will not recover, because they will get boarded up. You see them in all the communities that you represent. They do not come back. When that happens, you have a whole rack of associated issues involving social deprivation and disorder. We work closely as an industry with schemes such as Best Bar None, which is all about creating safe spaces for socialising and, through that, seize the positive impact of hospitality—increased footfall, lower crime, lower social disorder and people feeling safe, because people are out and about in those communities and high streets. That is absolutely key.

Kate Nicholls: Some elements are there. This is a really welcome first step, but the pledge is for root-and-branch reform of business rates, and that is what high street businesses have been calling out for, for 20 years, really. I think that there is need for further reform of the system—you asked particularly about the business rate system—where support could be provided.

Three key elements are included within the wider package of reforms in the consultation paper that was published with the Budget. First, we in the hospitality sector often get penalised for investing in our premises. That delivers higher turnover, but then you get taxed—it is a tax on success and it happens frequently. The suggestion is for a longer period after a significant investment is made before the Valuation Office Agency can come to do a revaluation and look at taking an additional chunk in business rates. That would be incredibly welcome. We suggest that that should be at least as long as the first revaluation period post an investment being made, so that you do not get that significant change.

The second element is the interrelation between business rates and other tax factors for investment in the premises. Again, that is about the penalisation. At the moment, that is around capital allowances, but capital allowances do not extend to leased property. Only about a third of the products that are invested in when upgrading a pub or hotel are capable of being covered by capital allowances. As Steve said eloquently, you only pay corporation tax when you make a profit, and if you are not making a profit, capital allowances do not really help you. We need to look at other ways—perhaps research and development tax credits or discounts off the business rates for investment in green technology, but things that help to incentivise rather than penalise people for making an investment in their premises.

The third element is not in the scope of the consultation, but it does need to be taken forward. There is a very delicate balance between rent and rates, and they are supposed to be self-correcting. In our sector they are not, because rental and lease periods are long, and there are upward-only rent review clauses in most high street and city centre premises. That means that your rent and rates bills cannot reset themselves when there are changes in the market, in the same way as with retail in the high street. There was an outstanding consultation on commercial leases, which was looking at a ban on upward-only rent review clauses. It would be significantly helpful if the Department took that forward separately, as part of a high street strategy.

[Jim McMahon]

Q Thank you for giving evidence, and for the insight that you provided, which I thought was very comprehensive and gave a good insight into the industry. We all accept just how important pubs are, not just to the economy, but to our communities. In many places, they are where communities come together, where families meet and where memories are made. In many working-class communities, they are also buildings of note—of interest—that add character. All that is taken, and the work that your members do is appreciated. The Government are trying to give certainty in the system and to say that it is not good enough that, year on year, you do not know what is coming down the line. We want you to be able to plan ahead. We want you to know the Government will stand with you.

There will always be limitations on just how far any Government action can go, but we believe that this is a comprehensive package that gets the right balance between the online retailers and large distribution warehouses, and those on the street and in communities. On the quite stark warning that was issued about the potential for one in four pubs—15,000, potentially—to close, how would that compare with the past 10 years, say, so that we can put it into the context of the number of pubs that have closed in that period?

Steve Alton: It would be a huge acceleration. The smoking ban was a huge intervention that drove habits and change. In essence, our operators would accept now that it had a silver lining, in a sense, because they had to modernise and make pubs far more open and accessible to all, but this would be an acceleration in the magnitude of failure. We are currently losing about 50 a month. You have seen that in the figures and in the insolvency numbers. You will also see that in your local communities. It is clearly a significant acceleration if you annualise that rate. It will be a cliff edge. Certainty is important.

I will give you an example of—Kate is spot-on about this—penalising success. There is a great operator who runs a brilliant bar in the centre of Manchester. He has tripled his turnover in the past few years from £350,000 to £1 million. He employs 30 people, including a lot of part-time staff and students. He has seen business rates rise in line with that, and that has not given him a breathing space. He currently makes about £60,000 to the bottom line on a £1 million-turnover business. The Budget change will wipe all that out. People will come to a decision about whether running a pub is the right thing to be doing. As you articulated, many of our operators have a social purpose. They want to be in their communities, adding value. For them, it is not an overt commercial play. If it were, the head-over-heart decision would already have driven some of them out. They just need certainty and a little bit of hope.

We are encouraged by the direction of travel. Having the two multipliers specifically for hospitality is fantastic. I encourage applying the maximum in the Bill because it is needed now. We have got a revaluation coming up. As Kate intimated, it probably will not reflect the reality of rents because it will not take into account what happened in the Budget, how that drives the market and the pretty rapid impact that will have. By the time the revaluation comes round, it will not reflect that. There is a consideration about the underlying multiplier, from which the 20p is applied, being dropped, and that being kept under continuous review.

We do not want to penalise operators who invest money and put their heart and soul into these businesses. They want to do many things and they can do them very quickly. One of our platforms is the Sustainability Champion award. We write to all you guys about it—hopefully you will have had some letters from our organisation—applauding the efforts of operators in your localities. They do amazing things rapidly, but some of that is capital restricted. They want to move to fully electric kitchens, and they want self-generation systems and recharging points in their car parks. Some have made that leap, but they are the outliers who can afford to do it. Access to capital is a huge issue in our marketplace. A mid-tier operator cannot get it right now. Banks are just saying no. If we look at the profit and loss, we can perhaps understand why they are saying that, but it creates a negative corkscrew.

We see the direction of travel positively, but I implore the Committee to apply the maximum on the two lower thresholds and keep the overriding multiplier firmly in your sights and make sure it goes down. We want to reduce the tax our pubs pay, not because the money will go into their bank accounts but because it will unlock investment and surety. On tenure, you will know publicans who have been there for 10 or 20 years—they want to commit to those ventures long term. It is not a short-term money-making exercise. It is far more purposeful than that.

Kate Nicholls: May I answer your question about the number of closures most recently? Last year, there were 3,000 closures in total across hospitality as a whole. Since covid, there has been a reduction of about 20% in neighbourhood independent restaurants and 30% in neighbourhood independent nightclubs and late-night music venues. Closures are not just a pub issue. It is hitting across the board. It has also hit a large number of guest houses, bed and breakfasts and independent hotels.

One driver is investment in openings. Unfortunately, a small number of closures will happen every year. It is a devastating human tragedy for those involved, but business failures happen. What drives the numbers is the lack of new openings and investment coming through to reopen premises and get businesses moving again. Business rates are a significant factor in that. I have so many discussions with people about investment in the sector, whether that is foreign direct investment, major private equity or small-scale bank investment. Corporation tax never comes up. Business rates are always an inhibiting factor for investment, so this is really significant.

I echo Steve’s point about the importance of using the maximum for the two rates—the standard rate and the lower rate. There is often a misapprehension that the lower rate is small business and the standard rate is large business. That is not the case. We have many independent, single-site businesses that will be in the upper rate. Applying the 20p discount to both is therefore important. About 30% of hospitality businesses that pay business rates are in the standard multiplier tier, and they account for 60% of employment and 60% turnover.

Let us not kid ourselves, either, that the super-rate charged at £500,000-plus will not have an impact. A small but significant number of hospitality venues are caught within that multiplier. I am not sure that that was always intended, given that—as you rightly say, Minister—it was designed to capture online businesses, so we could look again at some of those higher rates. The Bill gives scope for different businesses to be treated differently in that £500,000-plus tier, and we urge you to make use of that, as well as of the maximum 20p discounts below.

[Jim McMahon]

Q This part of the sector is unique in that turnover is so closely aligned to rateable value in a way that is different from other parts of the system. We accept that. You will know about this from your members, and I hear it all the time as a constituency MP—I have large family brewery, JW Lees, that operates heavily in my constituency, and it is very good—but when margins are tight, how much of that is down to a number of factors that are outside the Government’s control, not least rent? We heard earlier from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, whose evidence indicated that there is a market adjustment: on one side there may well be a rate increase or decrease, but on the other side the rent will move accordingly. I accept that that is outside the scope of the Bill, but it would be helpful to get your assessment of the marketplace, the rent levels that are applied to these businesses and how much those impact viability—well beyond business rates.

Kate Nicholls: We have done an annual benchmarking survey across the hospitality sector as a whole over the past 15 years. We look at the common site operating costs. In the past 15 years, business rates across hospitality as a whole have gone from around 4% to 5% of turnover towards 7% to 8%, so they are creeping up. That is important. They are a relatively small cost—by far and away the biggest is labour costs, which are the engine of our business—but they are creeping up. The issue is that business rates are a fixed cost: you have to be able to cover them before you can open your doors; if you cannot, you are not a going concern.

Rent depends on the part of the sector. Across the sector as a whole, it is on average around 11% of turnover, but it is lower than that in the leased and tenanted pub estate. That will largely be part of the regulated estate and covered by the pubs code. There, you have a ban on upward-only rent reviews, and therefore you can get the adjustment that we were talking about. In the rest of the sector, where you need to have long leases to get the refit costs, you do not; rents may change in the market, but they only go one way once you are in. That area needs to be looked at as part of the Department’s ongoing review of commercial leasing and the high street strategy.

[Jim McMahon]

Q As a quick supplementary, what is your assessment of the number of your members that will benefit from the measures being taken?

Kate Nicholls: The overwhelming majority of my members will benefit from the measures being taken, if they are taken to the maximum, but I reiterate exactly what Steve said: in the current circumstances, it needs to be 20p. It cannot be “up to”; it needs to be 20p for both tiers. A number of hospitality businesses across the UK—about 700—fall into the super-rate. That might sound like a very small number, but it is a large proportion when it comes to employment: those businesses account for about 7% of employment. That will be particularly impactful. Those will tend to be larger hotels, pubs, bars and restaurants, either in city centres—around 400 of them are in London—or in coastal communities, where we have our large hotels. Those will be very large premises.

You asked about margins. Over the period since covid, margins in the sector have eroded by 40%, and many of our businesses are now operating at a net profit margin of between 4% and 6%. In Cornwall, Devon and deprived coastal areas, the big hotels will be the biggest employers by far: 20% of employment in those coastal areas is in the hospitality and tourism sector. If we hit those businesses and apply a super-rate at £500,000-plus, that will have a material impact on them, particularly when combined with the NICs increase.

My final point on those 700 businesses is that we are going through the revaluation process at the moment, and we estimate that there are a further 300 in the band of £400,000 to £500,000 rateable value. Given that the revaluation is looking at 100% to 200% increases in their rateable value as covid support falls away, you could bring a further 300 business premises into that super-rate.

As we read the Bill, there will be different rates above £500,000 for different types of premises. We urge you to keep that at zero for hospitality businesses, if you choose not to exempt them totally. There are two options: you can exempt them on the face of the Bill or you can apply a zero rate so they just pay the standard rate. Otherwise, you will further exacerbate closures across the big hospitality businesses in city centres and coastal tourism communities.

Steve Alton: From a pubs perspective, a small number of those it will affect are subject to the small business rate relief, and we are obviously keen for that to stay in place, because they are small, essential community pubs. It will have a material impact.

I also ask the Committee to look at the real impact numbers that the proposal will generate. It comes down to our objective of getting fairer taxation and a reduction in what those businesses pay. The maximum application—the 20p—is key, but you should also look at the multiplier alongside the revaluation. If that rises, which is highly likely, we need to think about the overall impact, and ultimately what the bill will be. We have a profitability issue right now. To come back to the Minister’s comment, rates are part of an unfair tax burden that we need to equalise.

[Jim McMahon]

That was not my point. I did not use those words.

Steve Alton: But having that assurance is a key part of it. Uncertainty has been impactful on business rates. It has stopped small operators from taking another site. If they take another site, you are talking about £300,000 to £400,000 of capital investment to build a new team of 40 employees, and there is a compound impact on the supply chain locally. A lot of people have held a station and have the ability to do it, but it is just not viable with the business rates bill as it is now. You could unlock some significant investment and growth, and, as we have shown previously, you could do so rapidly.

[David Simmonds]

Q I want to ask about the impact of the multiplier and the discretion around it. One of the things that we are all well aware of is that local authorities, in particular, are very big customers of hotels. They are particularly in search of temporary accommodation, which is especially significant at this time of year. There is often a strong incentive to make sure there is a sustainable hotel sector in a given location to provide for that emergency housing need, as well as for other, wider purposes, such as supporting tourism.

Is it your view that there should be discretion on the part of the billing authority so that if they need a sustainable hotel sector in order to meet temporary emergency housing need, or to accommodate significant numbers of refugees arriving, pending onward placement elsewhere, they are able to negotiate? If those businesses go to the wall because of a lack of profit margin, the taxpayer will have to be billed significantly more because those people will have to be placed in accommodation at a higher cost elsewhere.

Kate Nicholls: May I just say that the overwhelming majority of hotels are used by visitors for leisure and business purposes? Our hotel sector is a vital component of our tourism industry and is our second-largest service export earner, in the form of tourism. That is just to put your question in context.

As I understand it, local authorities will have discretionary powers to apply additional relief to those premises, but not to change the multiplier, which is set nationally. It is important that that is retained so that there is a national multiplier. You get distortions if you have different rates. There is discretion if a local authority wants to support a particular business—if it is impacted by flooding, for example, or the authority wants to maintain the provision of a service. The local authority can apply additional discretionary relief over and above the nationally mandated relief. That obviously comes out of its own funding. That is a better way of doing it than changing the multiplier. There is a question about whether local authorities should retain an element of the business rates so they have the discretion to fund, but that is a bigger discussion and is not within the scope of the Bill.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Chair]

Order. The Minister may have been just about to say this, but we have only five minutes left, at least two more Members wish to ask a question, and this is steering a little out of the scope of the specific contents of the Bill.

[Jim McMahon]

It is almost the opposite, really. Given the context that has been outlined, this is the respite that the industry has been calling for. If we can keep to the scope of the Bill, and what it provides for, that would be helpful.

[Jayne Kirkham]

Q I have a quick question. I am glad you are here, Mr Lord, because we were talking about the super tax and the £500,000 limit. I am from Cornwall, so I completely understand what you said about large hotels. Will other parts of the leisure sector, such as theme parks, the night time economy, music venues and theatres, be impacted by the super-rate?

Sacha Lord: Nightclubs will certainly be impacted. Obviously, a nightclub is a much larger space than a pub, so sadly they will suffer under this legislation.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Simmonds]

Q To pursue that technical point, under the SEND system in the state sector, as well as the statement—now, the educational, health and care plan—you traditionally had structures such as school action and school action plus. A child whose identified needs were not sufficient to trigger the issuing of an EHCP, but did require additional resource, would get it provided through their state school. Is there a case for saying that any child who might not have a statement, but who would have qualified for school action or school action plus, should also fall within the scope of the exemption?

Simon Nathan: We recognise that there has to be some sort of boundary, and obviously it would not be possible to draw up an exemption based on a tax on property that exempted every pupil with SEN. Our suggestion is that schools where more than 50% of pupils get SEN support would benefit from that exemption. We looked at the numbers, and that would bring in perhaps an extra 100 schools and an extra 4,500 pupils. Clearly, if you are a pupil in a school that has more than 50% SEN, you are going to have a certain level of need, and perhaps the needs cannot always be catered for in a mainstream school.

[Jim McMahon]

Q Thank you for the evidence you have given, and for making the time to come to this evidence session, which is our opportunity to get an insight into the nuances and how things feel on the ground. We talk about private schools and the independent sector, but the truth is that those terms represent a broad spread of different types of schools in terms of their make-ups, pupil numbers, financial models and so on. It would be helpful to get a snapshot of the variety of schools in the system, including by perhaps comparing and contrasting a couple of different schools, and then I will follow up.

Barnaby Lenon: We have a huge range of types of school. At one end, there are quite expensive boarding schools. Their fees are often quoted, but it is very expensive to run a boarding school. They are not typical, because the average independent school in our sector has 280 pupils—so it is pretty small—and half are smaller than that. I have been a governor of schools with 120 pupils, but the special needs schools we are talking about often have 50 pupils. There are plenty of faith schools, about which Simon will talk in a moment, that also have very small numbers, yet are quite important in their particular faith community.

The average fee for a day school is about £18,000, but half are less than that, and there are some with incredibly small fees—just a couple of thousand a year, which is less than would normally be spent on a pupil in a state school. There is a massive range in terms of fee and size of school. We are particularly concerned about the low-cost and small schools, because those are the most vulnerable. They are already closing. Through our surveys, they have told us that they are going to close if the situation continues as, so far as one can see, it is going to continue.

Simon Nathan: As Barnaby said, there is a range: 1,000 schools, or 40% of the schools in our sector, have fewer than 100 pupils, so they are not always very big schools.

To touch briefly on faith schools, 20,000 children attend Muslim faith schools in our sector, and those schools charge an average of £3,000 per year in fees. There are Orthodox Jewish Haredi schools in our sector—65 schools that educate 20,000 children. On average, those schools ask for about £100 a week or less, and those schools are modelled in such a way that if a family comes in that cannot afford the fees, the school will accept them anyway. It is the community that steps in and fundraises to make up that financial difference.

To give an example, those types of Orthodox Jewish Haredi schools run on a low-fee model, and quite a lot of them are in London where there are high property prices. As Haredi Jewish families tend to have more children on average, a lot of those schools will have pupil numbers of around 800, so they will be in quite large buildings and will have quite large rates bills when this change comes into effect. I have spoken to representatives of those communities who are extremely concerned by the impact that this will have. They use a low-fee model, so they do not get huge amounts of money in fees, but the rates bill could be tens of thousands of pounds, if not more. The only way that those schools can bridge that gap is through fundraising from the synagogues in the community. If that money cannot come forward, those schools just do not have the money to pay the bill, so they are very concerned.

[Jim McMahon]

Q There is a variety of different schools with different specialisms, particularly those special needs schools. Clearly, we have made provisions to ensure that those with more than 50% of pupils in receipt of an EHCP are exempt from this, so they are out of scope. In the end, do you think that many parents feel the need to go to the independent sector because they do not feel that the mainstream provision is adequate? On that basis, is that a reflection that the Government’s priority of rebuilding that mainstream provision, including the significant investment of £1 billion this year, is essentially about fixing the system so that parents have genuine choice, and do not feel that they have to go to the independent sector?

The second point I would make is about the quantum if it was followed through. There will be an assumption that, as a business, schools will look to absorb as much of the additional pressures as possible—I will be honest—in the way that state schools have had to over the last decade. These are the choices that every business has to make to try to make the numbers work at the end of the day. Even if every pound was passed on with these measures, by our assessment, it is about £300 per pupil per year, which clearly is less than a pound a day. I understand that you have given a wider context, but within the scope of the Bill, what assessment has been made of the impact of that average of £300 per pupil per year—if it was passed on in its entirety—on people potentially leaving the sector? Also, what headroom might schools have to absorb it within existing budgets?

Simon Nathan: I think your first point was about SEN. I want to say at the outset that we support increased investment in SEN in state schools, and we support a well-funded state sector. At the moment, the situation in which many parents find themselves is that, to cater for the specific needs of their child, they find that they have to go to an independent school to have that need met, and that is the choice currently open to them. I said that, at the moment, we see our sector as providing that additional capacity to support state SEN services, and it is over 100,000 children. Our sector will be there to pick up that need, and often those who come to independent schools have more complex needs, but we wholeheartedly support more investment in state SEN.

David Woodgate: I think the £308 per pupil translates into about £147,000 per school for the business rate relief alone. Our schools have been working very hard to manage their cost bases. Since covid, a lot of our schools dropped their fees by up to 50%, they provided hardship funding, and they educated and looked after children of key workers with no state support. Since then, we have been rebuilding. But I think the sector acknowledges that it cannot just keep putting this on to fees. Many of the parents who choose our education are aspirational parents—two-income families, with the second income going very much on providing independent education—so you cannot load the fees.

It is about looking at the cost base. Costs are being cut back to the bone, and subjects are being dropped. Inevitably, this will result now in redundancies. I was speaking to a school just yesterday that said that the impact of NI and the business rate relief is over £500,000 a year. They will be making eight teachers redundant over the next two terms. That is indicative of what a lot of schools will have to do, which in turn impacts on all the other things a school offers.

[Jim McMahon]

Q What I was trying to get to more was—to say “evidence” would be pushing it too far—the assessment that has been made of the impact. We hear language like, “Our parents are aspirational,” but all parents, by and large, are aspirational, regardless of the school their children go to. I am aspirational, and my son goes to a state school; that does not mean I am a lesser parent.

But I do not want the conversation to be about that; I want it to be about making sure that we fully appreciate the Bill’s impact. A lot has been made of the potential displacement of pupils from the private and independent sector into the state sector. It would be helpful to get your assessment of that. Our assessment, based on May 2023 data, says that, in terms of the capacity to receive children, there are around 1 million unfilled vacancies in primary and secondary schools in the state sector. Of that 1 million, how many could come in from the private sector as a result of this measure?

Simon Nathan: We did a pupil numbers survey this September that asked schools what their pupil numbers were in September 2024, compared to September 2023. That showed that pupil numbers were already down by 10,000. If you translated that into the additional costs to the state sector, it would cost the state sector around £80 million to educate those 10,000 pupils.

[Jim McMahon]

Q It is important to say, though, that the 1 million vacancies I referred to are in existing schools. So the teachers are in the classrooms, and the buildings are there. These are vacancies in the existing school system.

Simon Nathan: I appreciate that. The point I was making was that some of the money that would be raised to support greater investment in state education will get eaten up by pupils moving over.

In terms of hotspots, it would depend very much on the part of the country—obviously, our schools are predominantly in the south and in certain parts of London, in particular. We fully appreciate that, on a macro level, there is a certain level of vacancy, but our concern is that there will be particular parts of the country where there might be more hotspots.

[Vikki Slade (Mid Dorset and North Poole) (LD)]

Q I am conscious of trying to keep to the Bill, because I am worried that a lot of your comments are really about the state of the independent sector more widely. As has been suggested, the Bill will make a relatively minor change, although I understand that it comes on the back of other things. What thought has been given to how the independent sector might mitigate what is effectively a change to a property tax by rationalising the amount of property it uses? An awful lot of independent schools have an awful lot of land and property, and they could perhaps mitigate the impact by doing that. Has any thought been given to rethinking how you use property?

Barnaby Lenon: Before I ask David to answer that, can I just say that there are not a lot of independent schools that have a lot of property. There are a small number that definitely have a lot of property, but if you had visited as many independent schools as I have, you would see that a lot of them are in converted houses, with no other property. Many, many of our schools have far less property than a normal state primary school would have. Nevertheless, your point is taken.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Simmonds]

Q As you mentioned, many things going on in the system at the moment have an impact. Clearly, that level of investor confidence is crucial if high streets and the business environment generally are to remain vibrant. What is your view of the impact of the measures in the Bill on investor confidence? Are there any particular points that will either boost that level of confidence or tend to dampen it down?

Rachel Kelly: One positive, which we have heard from other people today, is that having stability, certainty and predictability around tax is important to occupiers and investors alike. Recognising the benefits of those temporary retail and hospitality reliefs to such businesses, and making them permanent, is a good thing, but Government could go a lot further. At the moment, we have a tax system where the tax rate fluctuates at every valuation, so, depending on the relative change in property values, the tax rate will change at each evaluation, and it goes up by inflation every year. That is unlike any other business tax rate. Therefore, if the Government really want to provide certainty, stability and predictability, which is good for business and good for investors, probably the best thing they could do would be to fix the tax rate so that businesses know, year on year, that really the only thing that will change their tax bill is whether their property has gone up or down in value.

Then I would reiterate my other point: we have a property tax burden in the UK that is more than double the OECD average. We are pretty much at the top in terms of the tax we levy on property in the UK. That, in and of itself, is not very competitive.

Similarly, I would come back to the point around more frequent revaluations. If you have a responsive tax system that reflects those property values more quickly, you are more able to support those businesses or sectors that are struggling more quickly, because their valuations will reflect that more quickly. That is actually better for the Exchequer as well because, as different sectors grow and improve, the Exchequer can generate revenues from those sectors more quickly.

[Jim McMahon]

Q Thank you for coming to give evidence. One thing that we are particularly interested in is ensuring that, within the scope of the Bill—the measures that are being taken, particularly on the multipliers and the reliefs—we understand the impact on the ground in our town and cities, and in the wider economy.

We have heard from other witnesses today about the relationship between business rates and rent levels, and in the end that is a self-correcting system when it works well. It would be useful to get your insight, from your perspective and from the industry’s, about what headroom exists, certainly for institutional landlords. There are a number of us, I think, who reflect on our own local economies and see very high rent levels being quoted for properties that have been empty for many years and have no prospects of getting tenants anytime soon. It would be helpful for us to get a feel of how the system is working as an industry.

Rachel Kelly: Sure. I did listen in to the sessions this morning, so I heard some of the discussion around the relationship between rent and rates. I will try to pick up and respond to a few of those points. There clearly is a relationship between rent and rates but, as one witness said this morning, the evidence is very thin. We conducted some research about a decade ago that showed that there was a relationship between rent and rates, but that relationship was not as strong in certain asset classes and in certain geographies, and it certainly is not as strong in retail.

We know that, for many of our high streets, where you might have 20% vacancy rates, ultimately the occupiers have much more negotiating power in those environments. So, actually, until the significant supply-demand imbalance rectifies on those high streets, we would expect the benefits of a business rate discount to predominantly fall to the occupiers. That is until such time as that supply-demand imbalance—or the vacancy rate—improves, at which point, arguably, the policy might have worked.

To the point around empty properties with artificially high rents, we represent long-term investors in property—institutional investors in property—and a lot of our investors in property are our pension funds, our insurance companies and so on. They want long-term income returns for their pension holders, unit-holders and ultimate investors, and the only rational decision for an investor is to try to seek those rental-income returns.

Perhaps, at the margins, people do keep their properties empty, but it seems wholly irrational. If I was an investor or a pension fund holder, I would not want somebody managing those assets to be keeping properties empty and not generating rental income from them. I do not think it is a pervasive issue; all I can say is that it is not something we see in our members.

[Jim McMahon]

Q These measures are very deliberately targeted at those smaller properties in retail, hospitality and leisure that are generally the backbone of our high streets and town centres. Your institutional members, who are investors in those places, must also reflect on the fact that many of those places are really struggling. Where they may be a landlord and the demand just is not there, it will be, by and large, because the business does not believe it can keep its head above water, notwithstanding the rent levels. Do you and your association think that a stable system that has a permanent relief—one that takes away the cliff edge and temporary support, which has been there since covid, to give long-term support—will be good not only for communities but for investors, who will be able to fill those vacant units?

Rachel Kelly: I think having more predictability and certainty around the tax bill is important for both occupiers and investors, which goes to my point that the best thing you could do is go further and fix the tax rate. But yes, the greater predictability and stability is good for investors and occupiers alike. Does that answer your question?

[Jim McMahon]

Q It was more about a recognition from industry that, for the institutional investors in property, the Government are going a long way to bake a permanent relief into the system, rather than year-on-year reliefs. That relief can help to fill those units that investors maybe really struggle to let because, whatever the rent levels, they are just not commercially viable for the end user, and these measures will help in that end.

Rachel Kelly: I think they will go some way to helping. If the ultimate goal of the Bill is to support high streets, there are probably areas where we would suggest that it is not as targeted as it could be. If you think of a really thriving high street in your area, retail and leisure will form a large part of it. However, a thriving high street also has offices and other businesses that provide footfall to those retail units. It has big anchor stores that might not benefit from this smaller relief but provide really important footfall for the other retail and leisure occupiers. It has car parks that are really vital to bring in customer bases for those high streets. It often has lots of asset classes, such as GP surgeries, libraries and some forms of education—you get my point. A thriving high street has a huge mix of different businesses all supporting each other. It is a really important—and maybe fragile—ecosystem. Yes, this measure will support some of those units, such as the smaller retail and leisure ones, but I am not sure whether that is enough to support the whole high street ecosystem.

[Vikki Slade]

Q I completely accept the point that a lot of the talk around the Bill is about high streets, because of the particular references to retail, hospitality and leisure. But it is a Bill that affects non-domestic rates and multipliers for businesses. Do you have any thoughts or comments on the fact that there is no reference to manufacturing and how we support manufacturing businesses? Do you think that should be included within the Bill?

Rachel Kelly: Whether that can be included in the Bill, I do not know. But yes, the issue of an uncompetitive property tax system is relevant for lots of industries, and manufacturing is the one that you raised. Ultimately, that comes back to the higher rate of tax across the board. If you are alluding to the higher tax rate for the rateable values above £500,000—yes, it strikes me as an arbitrary threshold, and it will capture lots of different businesses and sectors. Maybe there will be some adverse consequences of that, which might be counter to the policy aims, but I am not sure.

It is a tricky one to balance. Ultimately, if this relief for retail, hospitality and leisure will be funded within the business rate system, our instinct is that it would be better to fund that across as broad a spectrum of the economy as possible, rather than narrow down that tax base even further. For context, the proportion of properties with a rateable value above £500,000 is 1% of commercial property in the UK. If we condense that down even further, it is a very narrow tax base to fund these other changes, so I am not sure that is sustainable. I am not sure we can address the issue of competitiveness for other sectors without addressing the elephant in the room, which is the huge tax rate that we have for everyone else—55%, or 50% for smaller businesses. They are very high tax rates compared with any other business tax.

--- Later in debate ---

[David Simmonds]

Q “Marginal” is a helpful description, because we know that this is a very specific, narrow Bill. Clearly it is part of a bigger context. We know that marginal impacts can be felt more strongly in certain contexts than in others, especially if a business or institution is closer to the edge financially than an equivalent counterpart in another location. King’s in Canterbury may be extremely well padded in terms of its margins, but that will not necessarily be the case everywhere. On the educational impact that may follow from the overall changes, would the measure reduce the impact on provision or the ability of some affected schools to make their facilities available to other schools in a local area? Do you have any view about that?

Professor Green: I do not think it will have a great deal of effect. I offer you a small piece of evidence for that, which is the case of Scotland, which took an equivalent measure to this two and a half years ago. There was much protest beforehand from the sector that this would reduce not only the numbers attending the schools but schools’ ability to finance bursaries, which make a small difference, as you know, to making the schools a little bit less exclusive. The evidence to date, however, shows no noticeable difference whatever. It is perhaps too soon to tell, but we have seen no collapse or catastrophes as was predicted beforehand. That is one small piece of evidence that I offer you. I really do not think that it will make a great deal of difference.

[Jim McMahon]

Q Thank you for taking the time to give evidence and for your direct and matter-of-fact responses, which in a debate that can be emotive is very welcome to an evidence Committee. The Government want to ensure that, in seeing the legislation through, we fully take into account the likely impact on the school system and on the individual pupils and parents, but the fact is that most schools will seek to absorb this, as they would any other operating cost. It would be helpful to understand, if you have made an assessment, the likely displacement of pupils from the independent sector to the state sector as a result of this measure.

Professor Green: I have made no direct assessment of this particular measure, but I have made estimates using econometric studies of the impact of the imposition of VAT—which is not under discussion today, but, in terms of the magnitude of the sums involved, this measure involves much less. The best estimates of the econometric studies suggest that somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000 children might, over the course of time, be switched away from the private sector. If we take that, let us say about one tenth, in terms of the sums, you can see that the figure is relatively small.

I will admit to a certain degree of uncertainty in those estimates. We do not know enough to be precise, but I would be prepared to put my money on it that it will not be a vast number. Probably it could not be tested, because with the small changes that occur, it will be difficult to say, “That is because of this,” rather than because of the many other changes that happen—the circumstances of the particular market.

[Jim McMahon]

Q My next point is about the accommodation that we have sought to make for SEND pupils, in particular for those schools with a majority of pupils in that category. We recognise that that is an important part of the school system overall. Many councils contract to such schools to ensure that children who need the support get that provision. What is your assessment of the impact of the measures in the Bill on that particular cohort of children? Do you need to separate—in my view, you do—the overall impact across the sector from that on the children who are most in need of specialist support? Under the proposed measures, we seek to give them protection.

Professor Green: I understand that private schools that mainly or wholly provide for children who have had an assessment are excluded from this. They will continue to receive relief, as before. There may be some children who are not quite over the threshold for an EHC assessment—I do not think that a large number will be affected, but it is hard to tell exactly how many. I do not expect a large impact.