Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)
My Lords, as so often from these Benches, I echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. There is nothing in his comments or questions with which these Benches would disagree, so I will augment them.
First, I want to express disappointment that the Secretary of State is stepping down. His time as Secretary of State for Defence has been important, and his leadership on the Ukrainian situation has been particularly significant. We can only hope that when the next reshuffle comes, the Prime Minister is able to find someone to serve as Secretary of State who can lead our defence capabilities and take this defence refresh forward effectively, because we are at a difficult time. The fact that we have a refresh after only two years is significant. It is clear that what was said in 2021 was not sufficiently forward-looking; we were looking at the threats of today and not those of tomorrow.
While much is to be welcomed in this defence refresh, so much of it seems to rely on the lessons we have learned from Ukraine. Great: we need to learn the lessons of the last 15 months, but are we thinking forward sufficiently strategically? What is being put forward, and what was outlined in the Secretary of State’s Statement yesterday, seems to be modest in its ambitions in many ways. Saying that we will not be looking at new platforms is probably just as well, because, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, has touched upon, defence procurement is an area where we have been remarkably weak. The defence platforms that have been procured—Ajax, the “Queen Elizabeth” class and various destroyers—have all come with problems.
What is being proposed in the defence refresh seems to be more limited in terms of procurement, talking about working closely with industry. Like the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, I press the Minister on whether His Majesty’s Government have given any thought to their procurement procedures. It is fine to talk about working more closely with industry, but have they got their procedures right? What lessons have been learned in that regard?
It is noticeable that the new mantra being put forward is about partnership. When I have raised issues with the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office over the years, I have stressed the need, post Brexit, for having closer bilateral relationships and stronger multilateral relationships. So it is good to hear that in a defence Statement, but it comes alongside this mantra of “allied by design, national by exception”. A cynic might suggest that is simply because alone the United Kingdom is too small to act in the way His Majesty’s Government have so often suggested they want it to act. The defence refresh talks about being more agile and having a role globally. Is that really feasible if we are sticking with the size of troops, whether regulars or reservists, outlined in 2021? Is it not time to think about troop numbers again? Do we have the size of forces that we need in this world of contestation rather than competition? Have His Majesty’s Government really thought this through adequately?
Finally, there is a suggestion that we need to think again about risk and how we view risk. Could the Minister explain what is really meant? Again, the Statement and the refresh document seem to be quite limited in explaining what His Majesty’s Government really mean about this.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for their helpful remarks at the beginning of their questions. I thank them particularly for their tributes to my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence, Mr Ben Wallace. I am very appreciative of the sentiments that have been articulated, and I think they are echoed across Parliament and the wider public domain. The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, referred to him as a “Defence Secretary of integrity” and I could not possibly disagree with that.
Ben Wallace and I first met in 1999, when, as absolute rookies, we stepped through the doors of the newly revived Scottish Parliament. I remember thinking at that time that this was a decent, principled, very solid young man. My opinion over these many years has not changed one jot. It has been an honour to be one of his Ministers. It has been a pleasure to work with someone with such a passion for the department and such a commitment to changing things for the better. I can tell from the comments I have heard within the department that he has been regarded as a very good steward of defence. There is widespread admiration, and genuine regret that he has decided to step down. I will make sure that I convey the thanks of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, to him.
A number of important points were raised. The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised—I will include the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, in my comments because she associated herself with the points he raised—the interesting issue of public support for the war in Ukraine. That is a very important matter. Generally speaking, people have been so shocked by the prospect, and now reality, of a third war in Europe when they thought that those days were behind us. I think the public understand that, in the very difficult age of hybrid and competitive threat in which we live, the defence capability within the United Kingdom is one of their best protectors. It is one of their gilt-edged insurance policies, which is trying to keep the nation safe and to exercise our influence in global affairs. I know that my ministerial colleagues have been active in disseminating that message. I have picked up some comment from those in the media that they too understand that. It is an important point and something we certainly need to keep looking at, because the one thing we should never take for granted is the safety and security of the country.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the status of this Defence Command Paper refresh and asked whether a new Defence Secretary would have another one. I hope noble Lords will agree, having looked at the coherence and character of this refresh—I invite noble Lords to remember that this was not drawn up on the back of an envelope; it was distilled out of extensive initial consultation way beyond the MoD to stakeholders and academia. We genuinely wanted to find out from these informed sources how we should be shaping our Defence Command Paper refresh and making sure that it remained pinned to the integrated review refresh because the two have a synergy that must not be broken.
I think everyone recognised—again, I say this to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, who specifically raised it—that the 2021 paper was not sufficiently forward looking. What happened post 2021 is that the issues defined as the primary preoccupations of defence—the threat from Russia, the challenge posed by China, and the growing nature of threat and the hybrid form it can take and hence the unpredictability of how threat might manifest itself—did not, of course, take into account the conflict in Ukraine. Quite simply, that has galvanised thought.
The conflict in Ukraine has done two things. First, I think it has changed mindsets, not just on the part of the MoD, hence this refreshed Command Paper, but it has absolutely galvanised the defence industry, which had put a lot of its manufacturing production capability into deep freeze—thinking it was never going to be required. Secondly, it has galvanised attitudes across the world, not just within Europe and NATO. There has been a recognition that the unthinkable actually can happen. It is very foolish to imagine that you can allow yourself to remain unprepared for that.
I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that, if she looks at the current refreshed paper and back at the 2021 paper, she will find that the broad shapes and issues identified remain the same. But we have acknowledged in the MoD—and it is made clear in the refreshed paper—that we have to move at pace, with agility, flexibility and resilience that perhaps we did not anticipate three years ago.
The paper makes this very clear, both in its text and its graphics, because a picture tells a thousand stories. I was having a look through it and was very pleased to see some ladies in some of the images looking very fierce and doing all sorts of incredible things. If you look at this as a whole it is an extremely solid, well-structured and very coherent document. I would say to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and certainly the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that I do not see anyone wanting to change this any time soon. It has been built to last. It is specifically not about soundbite announcements. It is very deliberately structured to explain where we have got to, where we need to get to and how we think we do that.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, mentioned that there was no outline detail about the other plans. What is clear in here is that the whole sense of direction and the pace of change is accelerating. It is visible within this Defence Command Paper refresh how we are approaching that, whether we are embracing science and technology, whether we are embracing a new model for our people, whether we are embracing a new campaigning attitude and whether we are embracing putting MoD Main Building on to a campaigning footing, which we are doing. That is incredibly changing to the mindset that has prevailed in Main Building. This is not so much about the detail of what other plans may involve. The equipment plan stands; it is public. The orders placed for equipment and ships stand. We will need these things. They are all part of our holistic approach as we move forward.
The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, very specifically raised troop numbers and mentioned Napoleon. I think more instinctively of Wellington—but never mind, we are even-handed in this House. I do not remember Wellington walking around benefiting from unmanned aerial drones or clutching a mobile phone and being able to control operations from five miles behind the source of conflict. The point is that we have learned from Ukraine that the capacity of technology, which also has moved at an astonishing pace, has completely changed how we look at conflict and how we cohere what we have. You will see repeatedly throughout this document a reference to the “whole force”. This is a very important recognition that we now look at how we contribute across our whole capability. We have contributions coming from five domains. This is no longer about looking at one single service and saying, “We’ll need to do more with that” or “do more with this”. What we have to look at is what the capability requires to address the threat that we think is out there and how we most intelligently cohere that capability to produce the response to that threat.
On troop numbers, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, is aware, we currently have 73,000 regulars and 1,000 reserves. However, something else is also clear in here, which I think is exciting. I often wondered, and have asked questions about, the silos in which our workforce existed. Those noble Lords who are familiar with the Armed Forces will know that we have three distinct single services, a civilian cohort and incredible skills across all of them. That is why it is important to remember, as we approach this new age, as outlined in the paper, that it is about looking at the whole force and then working out which parts of the capability we need. I say to the noble Lord that yes, I am satisfied that the balance of numbers that we have across our single services is appropriate. We are never complacent. We constantly look at recruitment. We think that our Armed Forces offer a very exciting career for anyone minded to join them and we are doing what we can to improve on that offer and to make sure that it is an attractive one and that people will be minded to join.
I have tried to deal with all the points that have been raised. I hope that I have, but as usual I will look at Hansard and, if there is anything that I have missed, I shall write to the noble Lord and to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith.
Lord Robertson of Port Ellen (Lab)
My Lords, I add my tribute on the impending retirement of the Defence Secretary in the House of Commons. He is the longest-serving Conservative Defence Secretary and, especially in his role in connection with Ukraine, he has been outstanding. We will miss him. I am in many ways sorry that he did not get the job that he aspired to, which I once had the honour of holding. After all, he had the primary qualification that the Minister and I both have—he is Scottish. Sadly, that was not sufficiently appreciated among the other 31 countries and therefore, the Back Benches beckoned to him as well.
The Minister held up the document, and I could see that it has been well flagged by the department for her. It is called not “Refresh” but Defence’s Response to a more Contested and Volatile World. On page 63 it states:
“As set out in the IRR, the most urgent priority in the Euro-Atlantic is to support Ukraine to reassert its sovereignty and deny Russia any strategic benefit from its invasion. Our continued and unwavering support to Ukraine has shown the UK at its best”.
If that is the case and we are now involved in helping Ukraine in the existential battle it is undertaking with the Russian Federation, why is this Parliament debating and discussing this at the fag-end of the day, just before the Summer Recess? Will the Minister reflect on the fact that the last time we had a full-scale debate on the subject of a war in which we are participating was a year ago? Will she take the message back to her department and through it to the Prime Minister that Winston Churchill came to Parliament almost every week during the Second World War in order that the Parliament of the country was as involved in the conflict as Ministers of the Crown? I have made this point to her before, but it needs to go beyond her because I am sure she actually agrees with me. We really have to have proper debates about this matter; otherwise, documents such as this will lie on a shelf and will not help with the campaign or the fight any more than is happening at the moment.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for his kind remarks about my colleague and friend Ben Wallace. I will convey them to him and direct him to Hansard. I know he will be much comforted by the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, and I know he will not bear any resentment that the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, enjoyed what has eluded him. He is looking remarkably free and easy. He is looking positively liberated, so I think he is clearly anticipating with great pleasure whatever lies ahead.
I omitted to respond to the point that the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised at the beginning of his remarks about an opportunity to debate this in the autumn. The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, has just articulated a very similar sentiment, which reminded me. When the noble Lord previously passionately expressed his disquiet and dissatisfaction with the amount of time devoted in this Chamber to debate on the Ukraine war, I did convey that, and I fully understand that this paper is a very significant component of our defence plans. Again, I will take this back direct to the Leader and the Chief Whip and say that there is clearly an appetite for more time to be set aside. Your Lordships will understand that in this House we do that through the usual channels. I would appreciate it if your Lordships would convey the same message through your avenues on your party Benches, because I think the Leader and the Chief Whip would find that helpful.
I am very clear about the significance of where we are now, with another war in Europe, as the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, indicated—an illegal conflict in Ukraine. The pivotal decisions that now lie in front of defence, our change of direction and how we will take forward this new model, genuinely require debate and discussion. I am very sympathetic to that, so I reassure both noble Lords that I hear what they are saying and I will repeat that as cogently as I can.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, the refresh paper makes ambitious and encouraging claims for improving many defence issues. I am told, indeed, that the paper says “We will” nearly 300 times. Let us hope that the many advances in defence outlined will remain fully funded, and that it does not suffer the underfunded fates of so many of its predecessors. Can the Minister confirm whether the improvements trailed rely on firm delivery of the aspirational future 2.5% defence budget? Bearing in mind the increases due to inflation, are these also factored into the envisaged future programme?
Of particular interest are the many steps intended to improve on procurement—surely a vital issue following the recent Defence Committee’s scathing report on procurement entitled It is Broke—and It’s Time to Fix It. Many of the steps outlined make good sense: speeding up the processes; bringing industry in sooner; ensuring that there is production continuity, for example by maintaining a continuous shipbuilding pipeline, or avoiding skills fade by maintaining production lines for longer. Occasionally, it seems to be attempting to ride two horses at once, procurement being
“Allied by Design and national by exception”—
except for the use of homegrown technologies to reduce the risks of vulnerabilities to global supply chains. Does the Minister have any additional figure for the greater support of industry envisaged in this developing programme?
Reference is also made to increasing efforts to deliver an air and missile defence approach. Ukraine’s experience has rightly focused minds on this major gap in UK defence. What timescale is envisaged to bring this into operation?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble and gallant Lord for his observations and questions. I think they go to the heart of all of this, which is money, which the noble and gallant Lord specifically inquired about. The Defence Secretary has been very clear that we will live within our means and our means at the moment is 2% of GDP. But I remind your Lordships that we will have a budget of over £50 billion this year. By any comparison with what is available to other departments, that is a very hefty allocation of funding. The Defence Secretary was clear in the other place that he would like to see 2.5%; the Prime Minister has committed to that when fiscal and economic circumstances allow. That would be a very useful target to bear in mind. So this is costed within the resource we know we have.
The noble and gallant Lord made an important point about procurement. We have brought in important improvements, and of course the paper itself outlines what our new alliance with industry will be and what acquisition reform will constitute. I will not rehearse all that, but I was very struck by something that the Secretary of State said in the other place yesterday. He said:
“In 2009-10, the average time delay on a project was 28%; it is now 15%. The average cost overrun was 15% on a project in 2009-10; it is now 4%”.—[Official Report, Commons, 18/7/23; col. 792.]
We have been striving to bring in significant reforms. We have the defence equipment and supply directorate; it is staffed with people who have both commercial and MoD experience. Noble Lords will see the proposal in the paper that we move on to five-year contract periods; I think that is a useful discipline. Obviously, some of the big contracts will be extraordinary and beyond that, but I think that is a useful working template.
The other important point that the Secretary of State made in the other place was that we have found out, particularly from the conflict in Ukraine, that whereas we used to want to look at, examine and procure the perfect, even if it took 10 years to get it, it makes far more sense now to look around and see whether there is something you can get off the shelf. You can buy it more cheaply, get it now and then adapt it. An interesting illustration of that is our ocean surveillance ship, RFA “Proteus”, which we bought off the shelf and have adapted ourselves. It will shortly be ready for operational activity. So I think some important lessons have been learned.
I also picked up something that I am going to commit to memory, which the Secretary of State said. He said, in defence procurement,
“never defer—either delete or deliver”.—[Official Report, Commons, 18/7/23; col. 792]
I absolutely sympathise with that.
I think that what the noble and gallant Lord has been familiar with, and indeed was referring to, is some of these, frankly, disastrous procurement experiences where we have placed an order and changed our minds, and the industry partner has changed its mind. We have changed the spec and altered the price, and the whole thing has become like a fast-moving vehicle with no steering wheel and nobody trying to direct it. The reforms we have brought in, and particularly what is outlined in the paper, are going to be a very robust regulator of how we approach procurement in the future.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, I want to return to the issue of expenditure in due course, but before I do, I associate myself with the remarks made about the Secretary of State. He has performed his responsibilities in an outstanding fashion, with great commitment. Of course, it is perhaps helpful that in his particular case he was a serving officer in Her Majesty’s Army.
On expenditure, does the Minister agree that what the Government are seeking to do when it comes to expenditure is to create a virtue out of necessity? In putting that question to her, I have regard to the contents of page 3 of the document and, in particular, the paragraph on the left-hand side which begins:
“After three decades of drawing the post-Cold War ‘peace’”.
The Minister herself referred to part of the language thereafter. I want to unpack that language, if I may. It is clear that the 2.5% which is set out there depends on GDP. The estimated GDP for the United Kingdom economy this year is 0.3%. It does not seem to me to be a figure which would allow any movement towards 2.5%.
The other point that I want to make, and the Minister has already referred to it, relates to
“as the fiscal and economic circumstances allow”.
That is an entirely subjective test to be made at the whim, one might say, of the Government of the time. It is a test which, for example, could be blown away if the Government of the time were more enthused about expenditure on health or education, or something of that kind. Since we are talking about the Secretary of State, it is right to remember that there was a very public attempt by him to persuade the Prime Minister that more money in real terms should be made available for the defence budget. I am rather surprised by the expression—and the Minister may be able to help me with what exactly is meant by it—
“this ambitious trajectory also enables our modernisation for the challenges of the future”.
The trajectory is not only ambitious; it is entirely without foundation or substance.
We get some illustration of where this approach leads us if we look across the page at the paragraph that says:
“That does not just mean more ships, tanks and jets—indeed in this document there are deliberately no new commitments on platforms at all”.
The Minister has heard me—on a number of occasions—ask about the number of F35s that the United Kingdom is going to pursue, in order to ensure that those pilots who have been assigned to fly with that aircraft actually get the opportunity of flying one. I have heard it suggested that they should spend their time on simulators. Is that a serious suggestion? Respectfully, it seems to me that the Government’s ambitions are set out, but the substance by which they could be achieved seems to be a long way from the contents of at least page 3 of this document.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
First, I thank the noble Lord for his kind comments about the Secretary of State. When we talk about budget, we deal with two things: reality, and what this Government believe is a reasonable and attainable objective. Let me deal with the reality. Defence has received an increase to its budget in the face of very difficult economic circumstances. That is recognition of the seriousness with which this Government take the current security environment and their responsibility to protect the nation and help it prosper.
The Prime Minister said—this is a Conservative Prime Minister speaking; I cannot speak for any other party—that we are committed to increased spending over the longer term to 2.5% of GDP as fiscal and economic circumstances allow. I accept, up to a point, the noble Lord’s proposition that that is subjective. It is subjective in the sense that the Government will have to interpret how the economy is performing and what the fiscal regime looks like. As the noble Lord is aware, we are trying to reduce the debt and bring inflation down, and I am confident that we can reach a position of economic stability in due course, but that reflects a Conservative Government’s pledge, and we want to hold good to it. That is partly because we believe in defence, and secondly because we think it is an attainable aspiration.
As I said in response to an earlier question, the equipment plan has been published. The noble Lord raised the training of F35 pilots. We have contracted out some training in order to seek help from Italy. That is happening but we maintain our operational obligations and we would never compromise the safety of our pilots or the professionalism of their status by doing anything that underperformed or threatened their training integrity. I am satisfied that the training regime is perfectly satisfactory; it is robust and is delivering the skills we need.
Lord Sterling of Plaistow (Con)
When you read this document, it is clear that it is vastly superior to the last one, published some two or three years ago. The thinking, ideas and viewpoints are extremely interesting. The sentence that captured my imagination is at the very beginning, in the ministerial foreword, and I shall read it out if I may.
“We must address increasingly complex and diverse threats, by maximising our own growing but ultimately finite resources, which necessitates ruthless”—
I repeat: “ruthless”—
“prioritisation and improved productivity”.
I spent many decades in defence and I have to say that I totally agree with the comments, particularly from the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, on how we deal in practice with productivity but particularly procurement. The noble Baroness was very polite. Our procurement in this country—in many departments, not just the Ministry of Defence—is shocking. It is a terrible thing to have to say that in practice, in everything I have been involved in—in the ministry and in other ministries —the way we do procurement and the quality of the people doing it is really letting us down in a major way.
The real problem is this. If we had a message tonight from No. 10 that at 4 pm tomorrow we will be at war, the speed of change would be extraordinary and everybody, from all parties, would pull together. The speed of change, in procurement and everything else, would go through the roof. I know the Minister is saying that the Government are doing this and that, but in two years’ time, if we have not demonstrated that we really can deliver, I am afraid that the rest of the world will ignore us on the basis that we are no longer a country to contend with.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I appreciate the significant experience in these commercial matters that my noble friend brings to these discussions. Interestingly, I had highlighted the passage he read because it attracted my attention when I was flagging the folder myself—I say to the noble Lord, Lord Robertson—not relying on one of my officials to do it, because I like to read as I go.
As I have admitted before in this Chamber, the history of procurement for the MoD has, at times, been a very unhappy one. The Secretary of State in the other place yesterday did not disguise that. He pointed out that procurement has been confronted and beset by difficulties, not over three years or 10 years but probably over 15 or 20 years or maybe even more. What we have seen in the MoD—and he referred to this—is that, on the basis of Public Accounts Committees, Defence Select Committees and observations from the National Audit Office, we have already taken significant steps to improve procurement. I referred to some of them earlier. I think this document—and my noble friend was very complimentary about it—spells out where we think we have to go in terms of efficiency of procurement, improved effectiveness of procurement and certainly increased productivity from defence. That is the course on which we are bound.
We are valued as one of the most important partners in NATO. I would say in relation to my noble friend’s last point that I think the United Kingdom is seen as a very serious, significant defence contributor. I know on my travels abroad the warmth and the interest that accompanies any visits we make to other countries. They want to know about us. They want to know what we are doing and how we are doing it, and they certainly want to be associated with us. They feel that we exercise influence, but underpinning that is a credible defence capability, not least our nuclear deterrent.
It has been a very interesting opportunity to hear views on this Defence Command Paper refresh. I am very grateful to everyone who has contributed questions and I end by saying that it has been a pleasure to support my right honourable friend Ben Wallace as Secretary of State and it remains an honour for me—at least for the moment—to be a Minister in the MoD.