Defence Command Paper Refresh

Baroness Smith of Newnham Excerpts

Wednesday 19th July 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

My Lords, I am always grateful to the Minister for her co-operation and help when it comes to these Statements. There may be some differences, but our overall objective is the same, particularly at this moment with our support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. Could the Minister initiate talks through the usual channels about a longer debate involving more of your Lordships’ House, perhaps in the autumn, when time allows? A longer debate on all these matters would be helpful for us. Could she consider that?

In the light of the work we have done between us, I particularly ask the Minister to relay our thanks to the Defence Secretary in view of his announcement that he is to step down. At this time, it is particularly important to note his leadership with respect to Ukraine and in building a coalition of support in NATO and beyond for that effort. I know that maintaining public support has been very important to him. He has been a Defence Secretary of integrity who has done all he can to strengthen our defence and that of our allies, including our nuclear deterrent and its modernisation. I would be grateful if the Minister could pass that on; I am sure it is a view held by many in this House.

On public support, can the Minister say what we are doing to continue our support for the Ukrainian people? Maintenance of their morale is crucial, and we can only admire their effort and resolve in the face of Russian aggression. In that vein, continued support in this country is also important. Can the Minister reiterate the measures the Government are taking to explain why we are involved in the conflict in Ukraine, and why it is so important for us all?

On the future, can the Minister assure us that an incoming Defence Secretary will not initiate a defence refresh 2 or indeed 3? It is crucial that the current Defence Command Paper is seen as a longer-term plan. To that end, with a general election approaching, what discussions are the Government planning to have with my right honourable friend in the other place, John Healey MP? It is important for our defence that this is an ongoing plan, with consensus built across Whitehall.

The defence plan contains a lot of strategic vision, including the demand to be a campaigning department and to tackle skills shortages, but it fails in some respects to outline in detail what changes to various other plans should be made. That is very important, since the Command Paper says, in a crucial phrase, that we have shifted

“from a competitive age to a contested and volatile world”—

mentioning Russia and China, of course, but other threats too, including those posed by terrorism and fragile regions. What does that mean for the current shape of our Armed Forces as envisaged two years ago, with the change being made in the Defence Command Paper?

The Defence Secretary says that we must

“match our ambitions with our resources”.

To do that, what ambitions have been left out? The defence paper also says we must match our equipment plans to our budget. Does that leave a shortfall? If so, in what?

Many questions are left unanswered in the Command Paper. Why does the paper not halt the cut in troop numbers—which, as we have seen, has led to the smallest number of troops since Napoleon—following the second-in-command at NATO, a British officer, saying that the British Army was now too small? I remind noble Lords that the Army has been cut by 25,000 since 2010 to 76,000 and, despite the threat from Putin, will fall again to 73,000 by 2025.

The defence paper confirms cuts in tank numbers. Despite equipment promises elsewhere, how can we be sure that the MoD can deliver them, given that just on Sunday the Defence Committee published a report into military procurement that said the system was broken? Thousands of skilled Armed Forces jobs remain unfilled, and supply is now a real problem. Again, little is said about how to address these problems now, although plenty is said about the future.

We fully support NATO and defence across the world with our allies, but troop numbers are being cut, as are tank numbers; one of our aircraft carriers remains in dock; Ajax is still a promise rather than a reality; there are problems in the engines of many of our new destroyers; Hercules transport planes have been scrapped while we will wait for the A400M; we have inadequate stockpiles; and defence spending at 2.5% of GDP is still an aspiration rather than a full commitment.

Many real questions come out of the Defence Command Paper. Of course we support the Government, but these are challenges that they need to address. The Government must reassure us that, in our support for NATO, we have the Armed Forces that we need.

[Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)]

My Lords, as so often from these Benches, I echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker. There is nothing in his comments or questions with which these Benches would disagree, so I will augment them.

First, I want to express disappointment that the Secretary of State is stepping down. His time as Secretary of State for Defence has been important, and his leadership on the Ukrainian situation has been particularly significant. We can only hope that when the next reshuffle comes, the Prime Minister is able to find someone to serve as Secretary of State who can lead our defence capabilities and take this defence refresh forward effectively, because we are at a difficult time. The fact that we have a refresh after only two years is significant. It is clear that what was said in 2021 was not sufficiently forward-looking; we were looking at the threats of today and not those of tomorrow.

While much is to be welcomed in this defence refresh, so much of it seems to rely on the lessons we have learned from Ukraine. Great: we need to learn the lessons of the last 15 months, but are we thinking forward sufficiently strategically? What is being put forward, and what was outlined in the Secretary of State’s Statement yesterday, seems to be modest in its ambitions in many ways. Saying that we will not be looking at new platforms is probably just as well, because, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, has touched upon, defence procurement is an area where we have been remarkably weak. The defence platforms that have been procured—Ajax, the “Queen Elizabeth” class and various destroyers—have all come with problems.

What is being proposed in the defence refresh seems to be more limited in terms of procurement, talking about working closely with industry. Like the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, I press the Minister on whether His Majesty’s Government have given any thought to their procurement procedures. It is fine to talk about working more closely with industry, but have they got their procedures right? What lessons have been learned in that regard?

It is noticeable that the new mantra being put forward is about partnership. When I have raised issues with the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office over the years, I have stressed the need, post Brexit, for having closer bilateral relationships and stronger multilateral relationships. So it is good to hear that in a defence Statement, but it comes alongside this mantra of “allied by design, national by exception”. A cynic might suggest that is simply because alone the United Kingdom is too small to act in the way His Majesty’s Government have so often suggested they want it to act. The defence refresh talks about being more agile and having a role globally. Is that really feasible if we are sticking with the size of troops, whether regulars or reservists, outlined in 2021? Is it not time to think about troop numbers again? Do we have the size of forces that we need in this world of contestation rather than competition? Have His Majesty’s Government really thought this through adequately?

Finally, there is a suggestion that we need to think again about risk and how we view risk. Could the Minister explain what is really meant? Again, the Statement and the refresh document seem to be quite limited in explaining what His Majesty’s Government really mean about this.

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for their helpful remarks at the beginning of their questions. I thank them particularly for their tributes to my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence, Mr Ben Wallace. I am very appreciative of the sentiments that have been articulated, and I think they are echoed across Parliament and the wider public domain. The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, referred to him as a “Defence Secretary of integrity” and I could not possibly disagree with that.

Ben Wallace and I first met in 1999, when, as absolute rookies, we stepped through the doors of the newly revived Scottish Parliament. I remember thinking at that time that this was a decent, principled, very solid young man. My opinion over these many years has not changed one jot. It has been an honour to be one of his Ministers. It has been a pleasure to work with someone with such a passion for the department and such a commitment to changing things for the better. I can tell from the comments I have heard within the department that he has been regarded as a very good steward of defence. There is widespread admiration, and genuine regret that he has decided to step down. I will make sure that I convey the thanks of the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, to him.

A number of important points were raised. The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised—I will include the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, in my comments because she associated herself with the points he raised—the interesting issue of public support for the war in Ukraine. That is a very important matter. Generally speaking, people have been so shocked by the prospect, and now reality, of a third war in Europe when they thought that those days were behind us. I think the public understand that, in the very difficult age of hybrid and competitive threat in which we live, the defence capability within the United Kingdom is one of their best protectors. It is one of their gilt-edged insurance policies, which is trying to keep the nation safe and to exercise our influence in global affairs. I know that my ministerial colleagues have been active in disseminating that message. I have picked up some comment from those in the media that they too understand that. It is an important point and something we certainly need to keep looking at, because the one thing we should never take for granted is the safety and security of the country.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, raised the status of this Defence Command Paper refresh and asked whether a new Defence Secretary would have another one. I hope noble Lords will agree, having looked at the coherence and character of this refresh—I invite noble Lords to remember that this was not drawn up on the back of an envelope; it was distilled out of extensive initial consultation way beyond the MoD to stakeholders and academia. We genuinely wanted to find out from these informed sources how we should be shaping our Defence Command Paper refresh and making sure that it remained pinned to the integrated review refresh because the two have a synergy that must not be broken.

I think everyone recognised—again, I say this to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, who specifically raised it—that the 2021 paper was not sufficiently forward looking. What happened post 2021 is that the issues defined as the primary preoccupations of defence—the threat from Russia, the challenge posed by China, and the growing nature of threat and the hybrid form it can take and hence the unpredictability of how threat might manifest itself—did not, of course, take into account the conflict in Ukraine. Quite simply, that has galvanised thought.

The conflict in Ukraine has done two things. First, I think it has changed mindsets, not just on the part of the MoD, hence this refreshed Command Paper, but it has absolutely galvanised the defence industry, which had put a lot of its manufacturing production capability into deep freeze—thinking it was never going to be required. Secondly, it has galvanised attitudes across the world, not just within Europe and NATO. There has been a recognition that the unthinkable actually can happen. It is very foolish to imagine that you can allow yourself to remain unprepared for that.

I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that, if she looks at the current refreshed paper and back at the 2021 paper, she will find that the broad shapes and issues identified remain the same. But we have acknowledged in the MoD—and it is made clear in the refreshed paper—that we have to move at pace, with agility, flexibility and resilience that perhaps we did not anticipate three years ago.

The paper makes this very clear, both in its text and its graphics, because a picture tells a thousand stories. I was having a look through it and was very pleased to see some ladies in some of the images looking very fierce and doing all sorts of incredible things. If you look at this as a whole it is an extremely solid, well-structured and very coherent document. I would say to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and certainly the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, that I do not see anyone wanting to change this any time soon. It has been built to last. It is specifically not about soundbite announcements. It is very deliberately structured to explain where we have got to, where we need to get to and how we think we do that.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, mentioned that there was no outline detail about the other plans. What is clear in here is that the whole sense of direction and the pace of change is accelerating. It is visible within this Defence Command Paper refresh how we are approaching that, whether we are embracing science and technology, whether we are embracing a new model for our people, whether we are embracing a new campaigning attitude and whether we are embracing putting MoD Main Building on to a campaigning footing, which we are doing. That is incredibly changing to the mindset that has prevailed in Main Building. This is not so much about the detail of what other plans may involve. The equipment plan stands; it is public. The orders placed for equipment and ships stand. We will need these things. They are all part of our holistic approach as we move forward.

The noble Lord, Lord Coaker, very specifically raised troop numbers and mentioned Napoleon. I think more instinctively of Wellington—but never mind, we are even-handed in this House. I do not remember Wellington walking around benefiting from unmanned aerial drones or clutching a mobile phone and being able to control operations from five miles behind the source of conflict. The point is that we have learned from Ukraine that the capacity of technology, which also has moved at an astonishing pace, has completely changed how we look at conflict and how we cohere what we have. You will see repeatedly throughout this document a reference to the “whole force”. This is a very important recognition that we now look at how we contribute across our whole capability. We have contributions coming from five domains. This is no longer about looking at one single service and saying, “We’ll need to do more with that” or “do more with this”. What we have to look at is what the capability requires to address the threat that we think is out there and how we most intelligently cohere that capability to produce the response to that threat.

On troop numbers, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, is aware, we currently have 73,000 regulars and 1,000 reserves. However, something else is also clear in here, which I think is exciting. I often wondered, and have asked questions about, the silos in which our workforce existed. Those noble Lords who are familiar with the Armed Forces will know that we have three distinct single services, a civilian cohort and incredible skills across all of them. That is why it is important to remember, as we approach this new age, as outlined in the paper, that it is about looking at the whole force and then working out which parts of the capability we need. I say to the noble Lord that yes, I am satisfied that the balance of numbers that we have across our single services is appropriate. We are never complacent. We constantly look at recruitment. We think that our Armed Forces offer a very exciting career for anyone minded to join them and we are doing what we can to improve on that offer and to make sure that it is an attractive one and that people will be minded to join.

I have tried to deal with all the points that have been raised. I hope that I have, but as usual I will look at Hansard and, if there is anything that I have missed, I shall write to the noble Lord and to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith.