Lord Spicer
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their latest projections for the economic growth of (1) the British, and (2) the Scottish, economy in 2014.
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, the Office for Budget Responsibility is responsible for producing independent economic and fiscal forecasts for the UK economy. The OBR published a full analysis of the prospects for economic growth, employment and inflation in its forecast at the Autumn Statement. The OBR forecast for the UK is that the UK economy will grow by 2.4% in 2014. The OBR does not make separate forecasts for the countries that make up the UK.
Lord Spicer (Con)
Does my noble friend agree that there is a great difference between the two economies, and that this provides one reason why the Governor of the Bank of England was so right when he said that it would be virtually impossible for an independent Scotland to keep the pound? Indeed, is it not the case that if Scotland does fly the nest, it will not take many eggs with it?
Lord Newby
My Lords, there is increasing evidence from the business community that it believes that its involvement in the Scottish economy would be reduced were Scotland to become independent; for example, in recent weeks, Bob Dudley from BP has said that there would be “big uncertainties” about its continuing investment in Scotland. He is just one of a number of representatives of major firms who have questioned their long-term involvement in the Scottish economy if Scotland became independent.
Lord McFall of Alcluith (Lab)
My Lords, the SNP White Paper said that,
“Scottish taxes will fit our distinctive social context”.
That seems curious and inexplicable, but does the Minister agree that in terms of the social context the single market between Scotland and England is crucial, since more than 70% of Scottish exports go to England and any disruption of that market will result in instability and will not be in the interests of either Scotland or the rest of the United Kingdom?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I absolutely agree with the noble Lord. The Treasury has done some work on the so-called border effect: what happens to growth if the Scottish economy and those of the rest of the UK are separated by a border. Its best estimate was that over a period of several decades, the Scottish economy could be about 4% poorer than would otherwise be the case, compared to a reduction in the rest of the UK economy of 0.2%. There are much bigger risks for the Scottish economy through independence than there are for the rest of the UK, but both sides would suffer.
Baroness Wheatcroft (Con)
My Lords, can my noble friend tell us what would happen to the BBC in the event of Scottish independence?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I am not sure I can, but that demonstrates how difficult it will be to manage the independence process. There are so many parts of what we take for granted in the way that we do things in the UK that would have to be severed; for example, one has only to think about the value of having an integrated BBC to see that if it were severed, how much of a loss that would be to everybody, whether they were in Scotland or the rest of the UK.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, it is quite clear that the defence of our islands will be considerably weakened if the Scots vote for separation. Does the Minister also agree that there will be a huge economic impact from defence firms inevitably moving south of the border because there will be almost no orders for defence equipment in Scotland?
Lord Newby
My Lords, that just seems one of the many inevitable consequences were independence to take place.
Lord Razzall (LD)
My Lords, going back to the Scottish banking system, does my noble friend believe that Alex Salmond is behind the suggestion that RBS would relocate to England in the event of independence, as had the last taxpayer bailout occurred in an independent Scotland it would clearly have bankrupted the Scottish economy?
Lord Newby
My Lords, the noble Lord may be right. An independent Scotland would have banking assets equivalent to 1,254% of Scottish GDP—more than Ireland, Iceland and Cyprus when they ran into banking difficulties.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab)
My Lords, does the Minister recall that Alex Salmond used to be an economist with the RBS? Does that not say everything? Will the Minister confirm that economic growth in Scotland in the third quarter of 2013 was much the same as economic growth in the United Kingdom, which shows that devolution is working, that Scotland is getting the best of both worlds and that we are in fact, to coin a phrase, better together?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I agree. For example, it is very interesting, looking at what has been happening to unemployment not just over the past few months but over the past couple of decades, that in the 1990s unemployment in Scotland was slightly higher than it was here. In recent years, and particularly in the past few quarters, it has been slightly lower. It shows that Scotland, while moving broadly in line with the UK, can do better than the rest of the UK, as it has done in a number of respects. It is quite difficult to see how it could replicate that pattern if it were independent.
Lord Kilclooney (CB)
My Lords, Scotland, like Northern Ireland and Wales, receives an annual block grant. Can the Minister confirm that the block grant to Scotland is now £30 billion per year, and that should Scotland become independent, the people of Scotland would lose that £30 billion?
Lord Newby
My Lords, it is not quite as straightforward as that. There are, for example, great arguments about the division of oil revenues. This has to be set against the block grant that Scotland gets. When looking at the economic consequences of independence, you have to look a long time in the future, not just a year or two. Independence is not for Christmas—it is a long-term business. The question for everyone in Scotland is not whether we are going to be better off in six months or a year or five years, but where we are going to be 10, 20 or 50 years down the line, because once you have done this, you cannot reverse it.