Economy: Growth

Lord Spicer Excerpts

Tuesday 11th February 2014 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Spicer]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are their latest projections for the economic growth of (1) the British, and (2) the Scottish, economy in 2014.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, the Office for Budget Responsibility is responsible for producing independent economic and fiscal forecasts for the UK economy. The OBR published a full analysis of the prospects for economic growth, employment and inflation in its forecast at the Autumn Statement. The OBR forecast for the UK is that the UK economy will grow by 2.4% in 2014. The OBR does not make separate forecasts for the countries that make up the UK.

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[Lord Spicer (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that there is a great difference between the two economies, and that this provides one reason why the Governor of the Bank of England was so right when he said that it would be virtually impossible for an independent Scotland to keep the pound? Indeed, is it not the case that if Scotland does fly the nest, it will not take many eggs with it?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, there is increasing evidence from the business community that it believes that its involvement in the Scottish economy would be reduced were Scotland to become independent; for example, in recent weeks, Bob Dudley from BP has said that there would be “big uncertainties” about its continuing investment in Scotland. He is just one of a number of representatives of major firms who have questioned their long-term involvement in the Scottish economy if Scotland became independent.