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The Minister for the Armed Forces (Mr Andrew Robathan)
It is a pleasure to serve under you, Mr Crausby. I think this is the first time you have chaired a debate in which I have taken part. May I begin by being the first Minister to congratulate President Obama on his re-election? I recall that his first campaign slogan, four years ago, was “hope”, which is of significance in our debate today. Of course, his re-election is hugely significant for the whole international security assistance force policy in Afghanistan.
I gently say to the hon. Member for Newport West (Paul Flynn), who has raised this important and emotive debate, that he will never find me, or almost any former soldier, glorifying war. I can promise him that those who have seen warfare do not wish to repeat it.
I begin by echoing the sentiments of those who have already spoken by paying tribute to the brave men and women of our armed forces. They operate in Afghanistan, the most demanding of environments, and every day they demonstrate immense personal courage. Since the operations in Afghanistan began in 2001, we have sadly seen 437 service personnel make the ultimate sacrifice, and this week, more than ever, we should remember them. Their loss is keenly felt, and on behalf of everyone in this Chamber I extend our sympathies to their family and friends.
In the face of such sacrifice by our troops, we should be in no doubt about the importance of the mission. We are in Afghanistan for one overriding reason: to protect our own national security by helping the Afghans take control of their own. Afghanistan is currently the main focus of the Ministry of Defence, and our strategy is designed to enable the country effectively to manage its own security and prevent its territory from ever again becoming a safe haven for international terrorism.
At the Kabul conference in July 2010, President Karzai stated his ambition that the Afghan national security forces would have full security responsibility across Afghanistan by the end of 2014. That is an Afghan objective, which we fully support in NATO. It is being delivered through the strategy of phased transition of security responsibility from ISAF to the ANSF, which was agreed at the NATO summit in Lisbon in 2010. The strategy allows ISAF gradually and responsibly to draw down its forces as it completes its mission by the end of December 2014.
The process of transition to the Afghans is now well advanced and on track to complete by the end of 2014. A trained force of more than 335,000, the ANSF is taking an ever-increasing role in its own domestic security. The ANSF will soon have lead responsibility in areas that are home to three quarters of the population, including all 34 provincial capitals and the three districts that make up Task Force Helmand. That is a clear demonstration that the Afghans are well on track to managing their own security.
Paul Flynn
I have heard this speech 1,000 times. The Minister took notes during the debate, so will he answer anything that was raised? Will he tell us precisely what the threat to our constituents is from the Taliban in Afghanistan?
Jonathan Edwards
Just out of interest, how long do the Government and the MOD expect the Karzai regime to stay in place once western troops are removed?
Mr Robathan
I am afraid that is something on which neither I nor any other Minister will speculate. Of course, as we understand it President Karzai will be standing down next year before the presidential elections.
In the first six months of this year, the ANSF led 80% of conventional operations in Afghanistan. ANSF troops are deploying in formed units, carrying out their own operations and planning complex security arrangements. They are also carrying out 85% of their own training, and in the areas covered by all three tranches of transition there has been a year-to-date decrease of enemy-initiated attacks.
As transition progresses, the campaign shifts from an ISAF-led counter-insurgency mission to an Afghan one. For ISAF, this means that the mission is gradually evolving from one primarily focused on combat to one based on the concepts of training, advising and assisting. The security force assistance model is the mechanism that oversees this process. It has been implemented this year and will be fully operational by mid-2013, when we expect the final Afghan districts to enter the transition process. That will mark a point of huge significance, when the Afghans will be in the security lead across the country.
Paul Flynn
Could the Minister perhaps try to learn the concept of “debate”, whereby we give arguments and he answers them? Can he desert his civil service script for a moment and answer the points that were made in the debate?
Mr Robathan
I think the hon. Gentleman will find that I will get every point that he has made on the record answered.
The security force assistance model has a progressively lighter relationship with the ANSF, it will be generally smaller and it will enable greater flexibility, allowing troop-contributing nations such as the UK gradually to draw down their force levels, and that is the subject we are debating today.
In Helmand, the ANSF now provides security with confidence and real ability in the densely populated areas of Lashkar Gah and Nad-e Ali. ISAF has physically moved out of those areas, withdrawing combat troops and handing over our bases as we move to the fringes. Since April, we have been able to reduce the number of UK bases in Helmand from 80 to 39 as the Afghans assume day-to-day responsibility.
In the third district of Nahr-e Saraj, the Afghans are now firmly in the lead in Gereshk town and along the strategically important highway 1. Our taskforce in Helmand now consists of two distinct parts: an adviser network, and a manoeuvre element that still operates in a combat role, where necessary, to disrupt the insurgency. This has provided the ANSF with the time and space to develop its own capabilities and build local national confidence. It has seized that opportunity and the results really are there for all to see, and I echo what the hon. Member for North Durham (Mr Jones) said in that regard.
Recent independent polling has shown that 58% of Helmandis now see the ANSF as the main provider of their security. I heard what the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) said about distrust of the ANSF; I think that is changing. We only need to look at the growth of the market towns, the thriving bazaars and the volume of traffic on the roads—they are clear evidence of the success of the local economy and indeed of the security situation. The efforts of our armed forces and the whole of the Afghan Government have meant that there are now almost 6 million children in school, which is up from 1 million in 2001. Of those children, 38% are girls, which is up from almost none in 2001.
Democracy is taking hold—perhaps not perfectly—and voters can look forward to choosing their own future, rather than having it dictated to them by the very worst of authoritarian regimes. The security gains made by our armed forces have transformed the future of Afghanistan. Our commitment to support Afghanistan is not solely military and it will endure beyond the cessation of our combat operations.
Helmand remains a difficult and challenging environment, and the insurgency is a constant threat. There is absolutely no room for complacency but there is a tangible record of improvement, driven by the UK troops that have been deployed in Helmand since 2006. If I might turn to our armed forces, they can be rightly proud of their achievement.
The reality on the ground is that Afghan forces are increasingly taking the lead. That is the progress that allows us gradually to reduce our force levels and to withdraw our combat troops by the end of 2014, and the Prime Minister has been very clear about that since he was elected in 2010. There will not be a cliff-edge reduction of our troops in 2014, which means that our force levels will be constantly kept under review and reduced.
The Defence Secretary set out in April that UK forces will draw down by 500 to 9,000 by the end of this year. We expect to make gradual further reductions to our force levels next year, but no further decisions have yet been made as to the exact numbers. Any further decisions will be taken by the National Security Council and will take into account military advice, the pace of transition and conditions on the ground, but we are firmly committed to the strategy and time scales agreed at Lisbon, and to the ISAF principle of “In together, out together.” As NATO’s Secretary-General set out earlier this year, the decisions made at Lisbon
“will remain the bedrock of our strategy”.
However, that does not signal the end of our support for Afghanistan and its people. At the Chicago summit and the Tokyo conference, the international community committed to give long-term support to the Afghans as they shape their country over the “transformation decade”. NATO will establish a new, non-combat mission in Afghanistan, in which this country will play its part. In addition to our funding commitments, the UK will continue to support the development of the ANSF in our role as the lead coalition partner at the new Afghan national army officer academy. Although Afghanistan will continue to face many complex challenges, taken as a package this support will help to underpin Afghanistan’s future and security.
To those people, like the hon. Member for Newport West, who say, “Why don’t you bring our troops home?”, I say, “We are bringing them home—they are coming home”, but we are not going to cut and run. We will come out with the task completed and with British troops holding their heads high, because we are leaving behind us well-trained Afghan forces to defend their country and to protect our security.
The campaign in Afghanistan has not been without significant cost and we will face difficult days ahead. It is appropriate that we hold this debate during the week of national remembrance. On Sunday, I am sure that we will all be paying tribute to those who have made the ultimate sacrifice in service to their country. In total, 437 servicemen and women have been killed in Afghanistan, bringing pain to their families and friends. Who has not shed a tear for the young men and women who have fallen in the service of our country? Who has not been moved by those who have been injured but who have displayed extraordinary determination—such as was seen at the Paralympics—to rebuild their lives?
The Government were not in power when the mission in Afghanistan began, but we have a responsibility to see it through. The UK’s national security has been safeguarded by the sacrifices and efforts of British troops in Afghanistan. We will not undermine that by abandoning Afghanistan before the task is complete.
Mr Robathan
I am just drawing to a close.
We seek to leave behind a stable Afghanistan, which is able to manage its own security effectively. As we look ahead to Remembrance Sunday, it is fitting that all of us here pay tribute to those who have served our country in the most difficult of circumstances. We should honour those who continue to serve, protecting our national interests at home and abroad—day by day, night by night—as we stand here. We remember them and their efforts.
I personally remember soldiers of mine—friends—who were killed in the Falklands, in Northern Ireland and in the Gulf. I have written letters to widows and comforted families, and it is a pretty ghastly thing to have to do. I say to all people here in Westminster Hall today that about 200 yards away, in St Margaret’s church, there is an exhibition of war paintings by Arabella Dorman. One especially powerful painting is entitled “I am strong”, and it commemorates a young man—Sean Reeve—who was killed four years ago in Afghanistan. Typically courageously, he went out on duty just as he was about to go home to England, having volunteered for an extra patrol, and he was then killed. I met his mother last night. Ministers in this House—in this Government and in the last Government—are not immune to the emotions that these things bring. We do not send people to die lightly. We understand the anguish of the bereaved and their real pain. I am sure that all of us here have met the families of those who serve, and the families of those who have fallen. It is fitting that we salute their efforts, which were made on our behalf.
Let me reassure all those who have spoken today, and all those in this House, that this Government intend to finish what the previous Government started. We will bring our troops home, knowing that we will leave behind an Afghanistan that is a better Afghanistan with a brighter future.
