Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask Her Majesty's Government how many men have (1) worked for their current employer for less than 26 weeks, (2) become unemployed, or (3) become self-employed, for each month (a) this year and (b) last year; and what estimate they have made of the equivalent figures for each month of 2021.

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority. I have therefore asked the Authority to respond.

Dear Lady Lister,

As National Statistician and Chief Executive of the UK Statistics Authority, I am responding to your Parliamentary Question asking how many men have (1) worked for their current employer for less than 26 weeks, (2) become unemployed, or (3) become self-employed, for each month (a) this year and (b) last year; and what estimate they have made of the equivalent figures for each month of 2021 (HL9375).

Labour market estimates are available from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which is a survey of people resident in households in the UK. The LFS asks respondents which year and month they started working continuously for their current employer. For the purposes of answering this question, we are therefore defining 26 weeks as 6 months.

In the LFS, respondents are interviewed for five consecutive quarters over a 12-month period, which allows us to track respondents’ labour market status over their time in the survey. By comparing the labour market status reported by respondents in two consecutive calendar quarters, we can estimate the number of people who become unemployed or self-employed. Unemployed people are those without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

The LFS only provides these estimates for three-month periods, rather than single months, and so estimates for the number of men who have worked for their current employer for less than 6 months are presented on a rolling quarter basis. It is not best practice to make direct comparisons between adjacent rolling quarters due to sample overlap. However, these estimates still provide an indication of recent trends in the data. Estimates of the number of men becoming unemployed or self-employed are only available for calendar quarters. All estimates are not seasonally adjusted.

Unfortunately, as we do not produce forecasts, we cannot provide estimates for 2021.

Table 1 contains estimates of the number of male employees, aged 16 years and over, who have been working continuously with their current employer for less than 6 months. These estimates are provided for each rolling quarter from January to March 2019 to June to August 2020, which is the most recent data available. Table 2 contains estimates of the number of men, aged between 16 and 64 years, who have become unemployed or self-employed since the previous quarter. These are provided for each calendar quarter from January to March 2019 through to April to June 2020, the latest estimates available. Note that, as with any sample survey, estimates from the LFS are subject to a level of uncertainty.

Yours sincerely,

Professor Sir Ian Diamond

Table 1: Estimated number of men who are employees, aged 16 years and over, who have been working continuously with their current employer for less than 6 months prior to their interview, January to March 2019 to June to August 2020[1]

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey

Table 2: Estimated number of men, aged between 16 and 64 years, who have become unemployed or self-employed since the previous quarter, January to March 2019 to April to June 2020

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey

[1]Quality indicator

Shaded estimates are based on a small sample size. This may result in less precise estimates, which should be used with caution.

Unshaded estimates are based on a larger sample size. This is likely to result in estimates of higher precision, although they will still be subject to some sampling variability.