Question to the Department for Education:

To ask His Majesty's Government what evidence the Department for Education has to support the estimate made in their impact assessment Review of post-16 qualifications at level 3 in England, published in July 2022, that "4 per cent of 16 to 19 year olds currently studying at level 3 may not be able to progress directly to level 3 study following the reforms".

The department’s estimate of the proportion of students who may not be able to move straight to level 3 at age 16 was published in the impact assessment that accompanied the second stage consultation on qualifications reform. This can be found here: https://consult.education.gov.uk/post-16-qualifications-review-team/review-of-post-16-qualifications-at-level-3/supporting_documents/Impact%20Assessment%20%20Review%20of%20post16%20qualifications%20at%20level%203_.pdf.

The department’s estimate that 4% of the level 3 cohort may not be able to move directly to level 3 in future following the reforms to post-16 qualifications was based on 16-19 year old enrolments in 2019/20. There were 2.88 million in total, of which around 115,200 enrolments, or 4%, were assessed as potentially impacted. This was based on a prior attainment threshold of five passing GCSEs of grade 4 or above, or a full level 2 and an estimate of the number of qualifications that would remain in future. It is important to note that many students who do not move directly to level 3 do achieve that level after further intervention.

Where students are unable to move directly to level 3, they will be able to choose from a range of high quality options. This includes the T level transition programme, from which 49% of students progressed to level 3 from the first cohort. In future, it will also include reformed level 2 technical and academic progression qualifications that are designed to support progression to apprenticeships, further academic and technical study and employment. Reformed technical qualifications will be based on employer led occupational standards and will provide young people with the skills that employers need.