Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what recent assessment they have made of the strength of the economy in Northern Ireland.

The latest official estimate of regional GDP produced by the Office for National Statistics indicates that Northern Ireland real GDP increased by 0.3% in 2019.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency publish an experimental quarterly Composite Economic Index, which provides a more recent measure of economic activity. The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index was 2.3% above average 2019 levels in 2021 Q3. By comparison, UK GDP was 1.3% lower in 2021Q3 than average 2019 levels, although the measures are not produced on a fully equivalent basis.

The labour market data from HRMC’s PAYE RTI provides a timelier and more comparable indicator of economic performance across areas of the UK. In December 2021, the number of paid employees in Northern Ireland was 2.7% above February 2020 levels, an increase of 20,000 employees. This is above the average UK employee growth of 1.4% and is the highest growth rate out of all 12 nations and regions in the UK.

The latest data also indicates that the unemployment rate for Northern Ireland in the 3 months to November 2021 was 3.1%, lower than the UK unemployment rate of 4.1%.

Northern Ireland will also continue to benefit from the UK wide Covid-19 Government support, including: a reduced rate of VAT for tourism and hospitality until 31 March 2022; continued access to Government-guaranteed finance for small and medium sized businesses via the Recovery Loan scheme in place to 30 June 2022; and the reintroduction of the Statutory Sick Pay Rebate Scheme (SSPRS) for small and medium-sized employers.

The UK Government is also providing substantial funding to the Northern Ireland Executive. At Autumn Budget we confirmed the NI Executive was receiving an extra £2.3 billion of Barnett-based funding this year – taking total block grant funding for the Northern Ireland Executive in 2021-22 to £15.9 billion. On top of this, we have now confirmed a further £150 million so the Executive have the certainty they requested to spend more money this year in advance of the usual process for confirming final Barnett consequentials. Over the next three years, the 2021 Spending Review provided the Executive with the largest real terms block grants since devolution.