Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to BBC article entitled Tax rises could push food prices higher, warn supermarkets, published on 26 October, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of an increase in business rates on food inflation.

HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the UK economy. Forecasting the economy, including the potential impact of Government policy decisions, is the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which published its latest forecast on 26 November 2025. The OBR publishes estimates of the impact of policy decisions, however the potential impact of an increase in business rates on levels of food inflation was accessed not to have a material impact.

The OBR’s forecast shows wider government policy will reduce CPI inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026/27. This is the biggest near-term reduction in inflation due to government policy ever forecast by the OBR at a single fiscal event, outside of a crisis.