Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make an assessment of the potential impact of (a) changes to employer National Insurance contributions and (b) other recent fiscal measures on (i) employment, (ii) investment and (iii) business closures in hospitality; and what steps she is taking to support the hospitality sector.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer National Insurance contributions (NICs). The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.

The Office for Budget Responsibility also published the Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances. With all policies considered, the OBR's March 2025 EFO forecasts the employment level to increase from 33.6 million in 2024 to 34.8 million in 2029.

The hospitality sector is predominately made up of smaller businesses. The Government decided to protect the smallest businesses from these changes by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500. This means that this year, 865,000 employers will pay no NICs at all, and more than half of all employers will either gain or will see no change.

From 2026-27, the Government intends to introduce permanently lower business rates multipliers for RHL properties with an RV below £500,000. Ahead of then, the Government has prevented RHL business rates relief from ending, extending it for one year at 40 per cent up to a cash cap of £110,000 per business, and frozen the small business multiplier.