Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, pursuant to the Answer of 4 December 2023 to Question 4331 on Unemployment: Chronic Illnesses, what assessment he has made of the impact of NHS waiting lists on long-term sickness in the labour market.

The department monitors trends in economic inactivity and works closely with other departments and organisations to understand the relationship between health and economic inactivity. In addition, organisations, such as the Office for Budget Responsibility, Health Foundation, Bank of England and the Office for National Statistics, have all published analysis on the relationship between health and economic inactivity. However, there is currently no consensus, and further work is needed to establish the nature and extent, if any, of the relationship between NHS waiting lists and long-term sickness.

The ONS reported in February 2023 that 33% of those who were economically inactive (excluding retired) were waiting for NHS treatment, of which 42% said it had “strongly impacted” their lives. The ONS also reported in July 2023 that for those individuals suffering with long-term health conditions who were in employment, the sickness absence rate in 2022 was 4.9%, the highest it has been since 2008, compared with 1.5% for those in employment without a long-term health condition. However, analysis published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in July 2023 states that “the rising NHS waiting list itself looks unlikely to have been a significant causal driver of rising long-term sick inactivity in recent years”, one reason being that “there appears to be limited correlation in waiting list trends by age and ‘treatment function’ between mid-2021 and the end of 2022 and concurrent changes in inactivity due to long-term sickness.”