Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, whether the Animal and Plant Health Agency has carried out scenario planning for potential (a) outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and (b) other significant biosecurity breaches.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) scenario modelling has been completed, and initial outputs received. A report is being drafted with the deadline being end of March. APHA is undertaking assessments in relation to other diseases including ASF.

FMD scenario modelling has been carried out multiple times, for such reasons as Contingency Exercises (Exercise Rowan) and to support development of livestock traceability systems. The majority of APHA exercises are based around a plausible scenario, developed from expert opinion, and/or demonstrated incursion, and/or simulation model. Scenarios are designed to reflect plausible, whilst testing, conditions.

APHA have carried out assessments of the risk of incursion of FMD from the continent and publish these via GOV.UK.