Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, whether her Department has made a recent assessment of the potential impact of the application of VAT on independent school fees on the number of independent school closures in the (a) 2024-25 and (b) 2025-26 financial years.

Approximately 50 mainstream private schools close each year. There are a range of reasons for closure, including financial viability and action taken by the department where schools are not meeting standards. We expect the number of private school closures to remain relatively low, and be influenced by various factors, not just the VAT policy.

The government is aware there may be a temporary increase in the schools closure rate over the normal rate during the few years after implementation of the VAT policy. It is estimated that this may be broadly equivalent to 100 schools in total closing over the next 3 years, in addition to the normal levels of turnover, after which closures would return to historic norms. The government has conducted a thorough and detailed analysis of this policy’s impacts and published a Tax Impact and Information Note (TIIN), which can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-on-private-school-fees/ac8c20ce-4824-462d-b206-26a567724643#summary-of-impacts.

Historically, there has been significant turnover within the sector. Since 2000, average fees in the sector have increased by 75% in real terms, while pupil numbers have remained stable, as have total school numbers.

Local authorities routinely support parents who need a state-funded school place, including where private schools have closed. The department works with local authorities to support place planning and ensure there is capacity in the state-funded sector to meet demand. Parents can seek places in other private schools or find a state-funded place through their local authority.