Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what her Department's population assumption is for Telford for (a) pre school, (b) primary school, (c) secondary and (d) SEND provision in each academic year from 2020-21 to 2025-26.

The department collects and publishes forecasts made by local authorities of demand for primary and secondary pupil places from the annual School Capacity (SCAP) survey, which are available here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-capacity. Forecast data is generated by local authorities based on their own data and local knowledge. These forecasts are challenged extensively during data cleaning processes. As with any forecast figures, there will be variation between the forecasts and the subsequent actual pupil numbers, and the level of accuracy is expected to reduce as forecasts are made further into the future.

This information is published at local authority level, with the latest publication covering the period 2022/23 to 2027/28, available for Telford and Wrekin here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/permalink/3d7c2bc7-052b-43f5-e0cc-08dccd7b577b. Previous years can be found in earlier publications, all available on Explore Education Statistics. Data on special educational needs provision was collected for the first time in SCAP in 2023 and published as official statistics in development in 2024 within the aforementioned publication.

The department also publishes pupil population projections at national level and by school type annually, which are available here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-pupil-projections. The latest publication includes historic pupil populations, plus projected population to 2028. These projections are not available at local authority level.