Question to the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade:

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade, what the basis is for the statement that AI could be worth up to £47 billion a year to the UK economy over a decade; which IMF publication and figure it derives from; and whether the IMF has endorsed the calculation.

The previous £47 billion estimate in the AI Opportunities Action Plan was a UK government calculation based on analysis the IMF estimate released in its World Economic Outlook in April 2024.

The OECD estimates that AI adoption could add 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points to the UK’s annual labour productivity growth over the next decade.

We estimate that this is equivalent to adding between £55-140 billion to UK Gross Value Added in 2030. This estimate is highly uncertain, and BIST will update this analysis as new evidence emerges. The methodology for this estimate is set out here.