Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of the proposed increase in employer National Insurance contributions on employment rates (a) nationally, (b) in Dorset and (c) in North Dorset constituency in the next 12 months.

The Office for Budget Responsibility's October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) contains forecasts and assessments of government policy, including the changes to employer National Insurance Contributions.

The OBR expects the 16+ employment rate to remain relatively flat across the forecast, falling by 0.1ppts from 60.0% in 2024 to 59.9% in 2029. Paragraph 3.11 of the EFO provides a detailed analysis of the total impact of the changes to employer National Insurance Contributions on wages, profits and labour supply.

The OBR's forecast does not disaggregate these impacts by region or constituency.