Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, whether she plans to increase class sizes to accommodate children moving from the independent sector to the state sector.

The number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of changes in the independent sector is expected to represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector. Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) research has estimated that up to 40,000 pupils may switch schools. Even this figure would represent less than 0.5% of the total UK state school pupil population, which is more than 9 million. It is therefore highly unlikely that school class sizes increase as a result of ending the VAT exemption for private schools.

The IFS’s research is available here: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending and https://ifs.org.uk/news/removing-tax-exemptions-private-schools-likely-have-little-effect-numbers-private-sector.