Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what assessment of the probability of an increase in youth smoking rates of illegal tobacco products as a result of the implementation of a generational ban on tobacco sales.

Smoking is still the biggest killer. It claims approximately 80,000 lives a year and puts huge pressure on our National Health Service, and costs taxpayers billions. By creating the first smoke-free generation we are stopping people from ever starting smoking. Our published modelling shows that smoking rates in England for 14 to 30-year-olds could be close to 0% as early as 2050, from an estimated 11.2% in 2023.

Evidence shows that when we have introduced targeted tobacco control measures, they have had a positive impact on tackling the problems of illicit tobacco. Consumption of illicit cigarettes has gone from 15 billion cigarettes in 2000/2001 to 1.5 billion cigarettes in 2022/2023.

In 2007, the legal age of sale for tobacco products was raised from 16 to 18 years old, which helped reduce youth smoking rates in children aged 11 to 15 years old from 9% in 2005, to less than 1.1% in 2021. This age increase created 1.3 million more people who were no longer able to be sold cigarettes, and who in theory would be in the market for illicit cigarettes. However, in practice the number of illicit cigarettes consumed fell by 25%, from 10 billion in 2005/06 to 7.5 billion in 2007/08.

The Government is investing over £100 million over five years to boost HM Revenue and Customs and Border Force’s enforcement capability to tackle illicit tobacco, supporting their Illicit Tobacco Strategy. In 2025/26 we will invest £30 million of new funding in total for enforcement agencies, including Trading Standards.