Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask the Minister for the Cabinet Office, whether HM Treasury has produced, commissioned or received an estimate of the total amount lost through fraud and error across Covid-19 support schemes that exceeds the published estimate of £10.9 billion.

Neither HM Treasury nor the Public Sector Fraud Authority have produced, commissioned or received an estimate of the total amount lost through fraud and error across Covid-19 support schemes that exceeds the published estimate of £10.9bn.

The Public Sector Fraud Authority’s (PSFA) estimate of £10.9bn is HMG’s best estimate for the level of fraud and error in COVID-19 support schemes. The methodology is derived from fraud measurement loss exercises or similar statistical modelling published by departments in their Annual Reports and Accounts.

In its 2023 report ‘Tackling fraud and corruption against government’, the National Audit Office (NAO) estimates that “fraud against the taxpayer rose from £5.5 billion in total over the two years before the pandemic (2018-19 and 2019-20) to £21 billion in total over the two years since the start of the pandemic (2020-21 and 2021-22).’ Of this £21 billion, £7.3 billion specifically related to fraud and error in COVID-19 support schemes.

The NAO and PSFA consider both their respective estimates are likely to be under-estimates.