Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the potential implications for her policies of Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts of long-term alcohol consumption trends; and what assessment she has made of the potential impact of those trends on estimated future receipts from Alcohol Duty.

The OBR recently reviewed its forecasts of tax receipts from alcohol duty and commented on this in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published in October. Its updated forecast reflects lower-than-anticipated alcohol consumption in 2024-25, and a reduction in alcohol consumption growth over the medium term.

Following a request for further detail in respect of the price elasticities used in its alcohol duty costings, the OBR also published updated price elasticities for alcohol in July 2024.

The government carefully considers OBR forecasts as part of its tax policy-making process and keeps all taxes under review.