Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to her speech of 8 July 2024, whether estimates of growth were based on assumptions made by (a) special advisers and (b) Ministers; and if she will publish assumptions provided to officials to undertake those estimates.

The Chancellor said that, had the UK economy grown at the average rate of OECD economies over the fourteen years from 2010, it would be £143.3 billion larger. This is a comparison based on outturn data, not requiring assumptions. A methodological note setting out the data sources and analytical methods used to estimate comparative growth rates and projections was published as part of the press notice released alongside the Chancellor’s speech.