Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2026, what the forecast rate of UK economic growth is expected to be in each year of the forecast period; what the principal risks are to those forecasts; and what policy measures she intends to pursue to improve long-term productivity and economic growth.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) on the 3^rd March 2026. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 1.1% in 2026, and will then grow at an average rate of 1.6% per year from 2027 to 2030.

The OBR set out in their EFO what they see as the key risks to the forecasts. In their press conference, the OBR emphasised that while the central forecast does not assume a renewed energy shock, the conflict represents the key downside risk.

The government’s economic strategy is focused on delivering long-term reform, ensuring the UK is better placed to withstand external shocks. This includes targeted investment to boost growth, support innovation, and strengthen trading relationships, alongside action to improve our labour market participation and skills. These interventions form part of a broader plan to raise productivity, expand economic capacity and support living standards across the UK, while strengthening our economic resilience in an age of global insecurity shaped by geopolitical tensions, including those involving Iran.