Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, with reference to HMRC's policy paper entitled Applying VAT to private school fees, published on 30 October 2024, whether she has had discussions with the Chancellor of the Exchequer on the potential range of the number of children leaving independent schools; and what estimate she has made of the maximum likely number.

The government predicts that there will be 37,000 fewer pupils in the private education sector in the UK as a result of the VAT on private schools fees policy, which takes effect from January 2025. This represents around 6% of the current private school population. It is anticipated that 35,000 of these pupils will move into UK state schools in the long-term steady state, with the remainder composed of international pupils who do not move into the UK state system, and domestic pupils moving into homeschooling.

This increase in the state sector represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. The number expected to move before the end of the 2024/25 academic year is around 3,000. The government’s estimate of the number of pupils leaving private schools is within the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ estimated range of 20,000 to 40,000 and is also significantly lower than some other public estimates.

The government expects many of these moves to take place at natural transition points, such as from primary to secondary school, or at the beginning of exam courses. The impact on the state education system as a whole is therefore expected to be very small. The government expects the associated revenue costs of pupils entering the state sector to steadily increase to a peak of around £0.3 billion after several years.

Differences in local circumstances will mean that the impacts of this policy will vary between parts of the UK. The number of pupils that would have attended private schools seeking state-funded places will vary and this will interact with other local place pressures. Local authorities and schools already have processes in place to support pupils moving between schools, and children move between the private sector and the state-funded sector every year. Local authorities will consider pressures following the removal of the VAT exemption on school fees alongside other pressures as part of the normal place planning cycle. This is business as usual. The department will be monitoring demand and capacity using our normal processes and working with local authorities to meet any pressures.

Although the department does not hold information for private schools, data on the numbers of pupils in private schools is collected through the annual school census. The latest data can be found here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-pupils-and-their-characteristics#dataBlock-53cdc8f7-fc56-4c64-a79d-ccf5047b7616-tables.