Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:
To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, what estimate he has made of the proportion of the UK's energy that will be supplied from (a) nuclear, (b) wind, (c) biomass, (d) solar, and (e) tidal sources over the next (i) five, (ii) 10 and (iii) 20 years.
The Department has published projections of electricity generation by source for the UK which can be used to derive the proportion of total UK electricity supply supplied by nuclear and renewable sources, respectively. These are shown in the table below.
For commercial reasons we do not release any breakdown of renewables projections. Officials need to work in a private space to determine auction parameters for each CfD round to ensure competitive tension. Providing a more granular/annual deployment trajectory for specific technologies could distort auction outcomes.
Proportion of UK electricity supply (gross) excluding net imports[1]
Year | Nuclear | Renewables[2] |
2021 | 21% | 44% |
2022 | 21% | 47% |
2023 | 19% | 51% |
2024 | 13% | 54% |
2025 | 15% | 57% |
2026 | 19% | 58% |
2027 | 20% | 58% |
2028 | 19% | 57% |
2029 | 17% | 57% |
2030 | 18% | 58% |
2031 | 20% | 59% |
2032 | 20% | 59% |
2033 | 20% | 58% |
2034 | 19% | 58% |
2035 | 20% | 58% |
2036 | 24% | 57% |
2037 | 27% | 55% |
2038 | 26% | 55% |
2039 | 26% | 56% |
2040 | 26% | 56% |
The figures are based on central estimates of economic growth and fossil fuel prices and contains all agreed policies where decisions on policy design are sufficiently advanced to allow robust estimates of impact as at August 2019. Further details can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/energy-and-emissions-projections. Figures provided are derived from BEIS Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP) 2019 Annex J, Total electricity generation by source.
[1] For this calculation total UK electricity supply is defined as including generation from storage but excluding net imports of electricity.
[2] Includes a small amount of generation from non-renewable wastes.