Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 10 January 2024 to Question 7905 on Welfare Tax Credits, for what reason the awards of tax credit are deemed provisional; and for what reason the information is published annually.

The provisional awards statistics for those receiving Child and Working Tax Credits relate to the caseload position at a snapshot point in time, based on the latest family circumstances HMRC have been informed of by each family prior to that point in time.

It is only at finalisation (usually four to nine months after the end of the tax year) that the family’s circumstances for the whole year are known and a finalised award can be calculated.

This means the statistics for provisional awards provide up to date numbers at the reference point in time but are subject to change following finalisation as described above.

HMRC publishes accredited official statistics based on provisional awards data twice a year coinciding with the availability of that data for analytical purposes. The statistics are usually released in February (based on data from December of the previous year) and June (based on April data).