Ukraine Update

Viscount Stansgate Excerpts

Wednesday 27th April 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

First, I say to my noble friend that I certainly would wish to co-operate in every way I can with providing information and briefing to your Lordships. With the intervention of the Recess and imminent Prorogation, that has logistically proved a little difficult, but I undertake to resume these briefings and hope that provides reassurance to my noble friend.

On the budget, as I said earlier, we constantly review the immediate need and the potentially committed expenditure that we have embarked on. We also look at the medium to longer-term interest. That is what we will be doing, because critical to that—my noble friend is quite right—is what we think the implications are for this sustained and continuing contribution from the UK. Regarding what has been supplied already and what will be supplied, I reassure him that we do not compromise our core reserves—our stores—that we need for our national security and the other global contributions we make. We keep a careful eye on that.

[Viscount Stansgate (Lab)]

My Lords, I have three brief questions for the Minister. First, the Statement says:

“The next three weeks are key.”


Will the Minister outline in what way that is meant, given that this war has continued for much longer than we had originally thought it would? Secondly, what is the Government’s current assessment of Russian capability and intention to occupy the whole of the south coast of Ukraine, thus creating the possibility of a landlocked Ukraine state? Thirdly, in respect of the impressive range of equipment that is outlined in this Statement, do the Government have any concerns about the West’s ability to get it through to the Ukrainians who are going to use it? As I understand it, Russia has begun to target things like railway lines, which might well be the means by which this equipment is transferred from the West to the Ukrainians, who are fighting so bravely.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I think that when the Secretary of State referred to the next three weeks, he had in mind what has been a clearly discernible change of approach by the Russian leadership and military. That has involved two things. It has involved a new command structure, which indicates that the previous structure was not working. It also indicates that Russia realises that it is going to have to consolidate its resources and it therefore wants to focus on the eastern part of the country. That is a critical part of the conflict, because it is very clear that Russia is determined—we see it from the activity already taking place in towns and cities within that area—to try to strike this land bridge down through the south-eastern part of the country. That is what the Ukrainians are determined to resist, and it is what the UK—with all our allies and partners—is determined to support Ukraine in repelling.

On the issue of the next three weeks, we all know that President Putin has set his May Day parade day as an iconic, tokenistic opportunity to—no doubt—declare how successful he considers this illegal war has been. That would always raise an expectation that he might be prepared to escalate activity, and therefore there is a critical need to anticipate and respond if that is the case. This is a critical part of the conflict, but I think it is clear from the response in the support for Ukraine that the Ukrainians know that they have a lot of friends, and they now have a lot of really substantial equipment and weaponry to help them in the defence of their country.