Viscount Ridley
Main Page: Viscount Ridley (Conservative - Excepted Hereditary)
Lord O'Neill of Clackmannan
If this plant were to become necessary, the price would rise—but the “if” involved in the “were” of this plant becoming necessary is still open to doubt. The noble Lord has taken the worst possible scenario and tried to build the case on it for something that will be extremely attractive and very convenient for the companies that have been lobbying him. It might suit their purposes but it might not suit everybody else’s—and it may not even be necessary in the first place. That is why I have doubts about this sort of stuff, which is almost built on the back of Daily Express scaremongering. We know that there is going to be a terrible winter next year, as there is going to be every year—and, we are told, there are going to be blackouts. Well, we have had terrible winters and, so far, we have not had any blackouts. It is getting worse because the generating capacity is diminishing, but it is not yet diminishing at the rate that would necessarily require us to do what the noble Lord asks us to do.
Viscount Ridley
I had not intended to intervene on this point, but I would like to make a similar point to the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, although coming at it from a rather different direction. I agree with him that what we will see in terms of the capacity squeeze are price spikes, and, therefore, capacity coming back into use. In that context, it is very well worth noting that, at the cost end of the spectrum for the generators, there is an increasing view among markets—not a consensus, which would be the wrong word—that gas prices are likely to fall over the next few years. I do not know whether anybody saw the FT blog from Nick Butler yesterday, but he made the point that for four reasons gas prices are likely to fall. Not one of those reasons included shale gas; he was saying that, even outside the effect of shale gas, we are likely to see huge new resources coming on stream in the Mediterranean and East Africa and offshore in the Americas, that the LNG market will produce a much more globalised market in gas and that the Japanese uptick in gas demand following the closure of the Fukushima nuclear plant is coming to an end. Combine that with falling demand in India and China, and it is quite possible that we will see falling gas prices. It is quite possible that, as the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, said, we will be able to see this mothballed plant come back into operation because of rising prices for electricity and falling prices for gas without having to, as it were, bribe them. It is important that we are not in the business of making life easy for producers but in that of making life as easy as possible for consumers of energy.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Energy and Climate Change (Baroness Verma)
My Lords, I thank all noble Lords for this short debate, and I thank my noble friend Lord Jenkin for his amendment. Amendment 53BA proposes that payments under capacity agreements should be commenced by the settlement body within six months after the national system operator has run a capacity auction. The Government have confirmed their intention of running the first capacity market for delivery of capacity in 2018-19, subject to state aid approval. Capacity auctions will take place four years and one year ahead of the delivery year. For example, for the delivery year 2018-19, capacity auctions will be held in 2014 and 2017. Successful bidders at auction will be awarded capacity agreements which provide a steady payment for capacity in return for a commitment to deliver electricity when required in a delivery year or face a penalty.
Payment under capacity agreements will not occur until the delivery year. This is because we believe that payment should not occur until the plant is providing capacity. We do not want consumers to pay in advance for a service that they have not yet received. In addition, providing payment in the delivery year means that plant performance can be tested and, if necessary, penalties can be applied if performance is not as promised. If payments were made ahead of the delivery year, that would be impossible and might provide an incentive to game the system. Our position is therefore that capacity providers should be rewarded for delivery in a delivery year only, rather than in advance.
My noble friend questioned whether the capacity market’s first delivery year could be brought forward, and I suspect that that is likely to be the aim behind his amendment—in fact, he made it clear that it is. However, we have chosen a four-year gap for a good reason. If we do not have such a gap—for example, if we run a capacity audience in 2014 for delivery in 2015-16—new plant would not be able to participate, given the time required to build the plant, which was the point made by the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill. This would mean we would risk an uncompetitive auction with only existing plant competing in what could be a tight market. We believe that this would lead to a potentially inefficient auction and would risk consumers’ value for money, a point raised by my noble friend Lord Ridley.
We are not complacent about the security of supply. We recognise that Ofgem’s 2013 capacity assessment suggested that there may be a capacity problem in the middle of the decade. That is why we support National Grid and Ofgem’s current consultation on the need for and the design of a new balancing service for this period. If needed, this would keep existing plant on the system or get it back on if it had been mothballed for the period before the capacity market was in operation. This would be limited intervention and would mean that we do not have to run a full capacity auction with only existing plant competing. As such, the proposed measures offer a cost-effective means to ensure security of supply in the middle of the decade before the capacity market starts to deliver capacity in 2018-19.
I hope that I have reassured my noble friend that the measures we are taking are short-term interventions and, on that basis, I hope he will withdraw his amendment.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I sympathise with a great deal of what the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, said, but I worry that the amendment would be counterproductive and produce a worse result. We had an interesting debate last week about the importance of competition in keeping capitalists honest. We are all agreed about the danger of setting up a system that will be extremely prone to crony capitalism, which will be such an oligopolistic system that it will be easy to game and to lobby the Government in ways that can be helpful. I am worried that this panel of experts will probably make the problem worse and will remove accountability from Parliament, which is ultimately where we will be able to scrutinise this. As the scientist Richard Feynman once said,
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”.
We have to bear in mind that experts get things badly wrong quite often.
We have heard a great deal, even today, about the need to help producers of energy. I am sorry if I sound like a cracked record on this, but we are not here to help capitalists. We are not here to give certainty to investors or to make producers of energy comfortable. We are here to get the best deal for consumers of energy, whether they are pensioners, single parents or indeed the owners of small businesses. We will not do that by offering these extremely high strike prices and then leaving a group of experts, who will be easily captured not just by the industry but by other pressure groups, to monitor the system. We therefore have to be careful when handing responsibility away from Parliament and the Government to a panel of experts who, as I say, will be easily captured by industry or pressure groups.
Lord Oxburgh
My Lords, I support the general thinking behind the amendment, which is different from the amendment that we debated a week ago about a higher-level advisory committee. I am not sure that I agree with the noble Viscount, Lord Ridley, in his pessimistic approach to this. I do not see the amendment as taking power away from Parliament or diverting interest in that way. It could provide the kind of information and scrutiny that makes Parliament’s role easier.
The one point that I would make, which has not yet been made on the amendment, is that the most important thing about a panel is not just its expertise but its continuity. At the moment, there is very little corporate memory within DECC, and bodies such as an expert panel can indeed provide continuity. I agree that it has previously been very important to solve things in this way. I therefore hope that the Government will take on board the broad intention of the amendment.
Lord Berkeley
My Lords, I tabled the amendment as a result of a lot of communication from the renewables sector about its concerns about raising finance, given the current uncertainties that are going on, not only around the Bill but around a few others things that I will mention. The sector says that that is making it difficult to raise finance, which of course means that less electricity will be produced.
The risks and uncertainty are around the strike price and whether and how much of their power these companies can sell. In addition to that, there are other uncertainties such as planning. The planning system has become better in recent years with the legislation that both Governments have taken forward, but it is still uncertain. We still sometimes see ministerial decisions that look a little odd. It takes time and a lot of money, as we all know. But there is also the question of political risk. However, it is not helpful when Ministers and, I am sorry to say, Prince Charles make statements about not liking windmills or something. This does not apply only to windmills, but these technologies should be developed and commissioned and permissions sought for their planning on their merits, be they offshore or onshore. We have even heard about how successful PV is in Germany today, because the sun is shining.
There is a risk to these new developments. The renewables sector has said to me very strongly that if it could get 25 years, duration of support for CFTs, it would encourage companies and their investors to go for a greater volume of the different technologies, not only the ones that are going up already quite successfully but new ones, much more quickly and easily. I beg to move.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I know that particularly in the case of offshore wind a Royal Academy of Engineering report is forthcoming, which I hope we will see before Report. Rumours are that it is extremely negative about the risks and dangers of the practicalities of installing wind turbines on a large scale, and in particular on their likely lifetime.
If we were to consider giving an offshore wind company a 25-year contract for a technology that is supposed to last 20 years, and many engineers think will not last more than 15 years, we will not have done the consumer and indeed the taxpayer a service. We would have let them down very badly. We have to take into account that a lot of these technologies will turn out not to last as long as we thought and deliver the benefits that we thought they would. In the case of offshore wind, once again, it is becoming clearer by the day that the carbon dioxide savings that offshore wind will deliver will be very disappointing because of the need for backup power, the need for that backup power to be open cycle, as has been mentioned, and because of the cost and carbon cost of some of these technologies.
It would be a mistake on behalf of the consumer to enter into these eye-wateringly high, £155 per megawatt-hour, strike price costs for a quarter of a century when all sorts of things may change over that time.
Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
I should remind your Lordships of my registered interest as a director of the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult. I am not going to debate with the noble Lord the benefits or otherwise of offshore wind, other than to say that it is not a brand-new technology. I can remember something like 20 years ago inaugurating the first offshore wind farm at Blyth in Northumberland. The technology in its basic form is tried and tested, and is another bit of our armoury. Those of us who, like me, are in our prime, remember the six-day war and the consequences of not having a wide basket of energy sources available to us.
I am not 100% certain that I agree with my noble friend that we should be talking about contracts of a length of 30 years. However, we are talking here about a probing amendment and the uncertainties. We are coming into a big part of the Bill, where we are going to talk about uncertainty for investors. It is about how you secure a rate of return and mitigate risk. That is what was in my noble friend’s mind when he tabled his amendment, and on Thursday we will come to an amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Roper, which also brings us back to the issue of uncertainty.
I support what my noble friend is trying to do. There is a bit of a debate on the length of time, but the key to this aspect of the debate is to remove uncertainty. When the noble Lord, Lord Jenkin, was speaking, I came across a good analogy. When you get on a plane, after take-off the pilot comes on and says, “Don’t worry, I’ve never flown this plane before, but I’ll have read the manual before it’s time to land”. We have a wee bit of a feeling like that about this Bill.
The Earl of Caithness
I hope that my noble friend will not be lured by the special pleading of the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, on this issue. I particularly thought that the noble Lord was wrong to say that it was unhelpful for anyone to say that they disliked windmills. I dislike windmills; I happen to be able to count 11 wind farms out of my window, which is probably more than anyone else can in the Committee, and I would be very pleased if they were not there for 25 years. It does not do tourism much good and, as a countryman, I think that it spoils the country. If there were modern, different technologies that could replace wind farms, which I agree are at the moment essential, although perhaps not in that quantity and dispersal that I can see, I would be only too pleased if they were removed.
One of the most interesting bits of evidence that we got in European Sub-Committee D was how wrong everybody has been on energy in the past. I see that the noble Lord, Lord Whitty, is in agreement with me. For those of us who were relatively new to this subject, it is fascinating how wrong the forecasters have been time and again in the past 15 years. So for goodness’ sake let us not fall into the same mistake of tying the Government down to a 25-year timescale when things could change. I have absolutely no doubt that they will—and do not let us give too much security to the producers of electricity. Capitalism is about taking risks. In the past, people have taken enormous risks. Some have fallen flat on their face and some have been hugely successful. However, it should not be for us as the consumer or the taxpayer to featherbed them; they must take a fair share of the risk. It is a very difficult balance that the Government are trying to get right, so please let us not make it more complicated by tying them to a 25-year timescale.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I quickly intervene because I failed to declare an interest. The noble Baroness, Lady Liddell, mentioned Blyth, which reminded me that one of the turbines at Blyth turned out to have been built on land on which, although I do not own it, the mineral rights were reserved by my grandfather. Therefore, I discovered that I was unwittingly receiving money from a wind turbine. I shall give that money away so that I do not feel sullied by it—but anyway, I feel that I should declare it.
Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke
I should reassure the noble Viscount that the wind farm that I inaugurated was offshore, so he is to be congratulated if he managed to get some money out of it.