The Economy

Tobias Ellwood Excerpts

Tuesday 6th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Ed Balls]

If the hon. Gentleman is quoting the figures for this year, they might be the result of the Chancellor’s policies. Let me return to concerns about Dover and Deal. While campaigning for a new hospital in Dover, the hon. Gentleman said:

“I am very, very concerned that Dover has not had and does not get its fair share of health care. I have taken this up with ministers and hammered home just how angry people are”.

Perhaps he should also hammer home with his Front Bench the failure of cuts in tax credits.

In last week’s statement, in today’s debate and in every interview the Chancellor has given, we hear him give excuse after excuse and blame anyone except himself. Earlier in the year he blamed the snow, the earthquake, the royal wedding and higher oil prices. America was badly affected by the snow, and every country was affected by the Japanese earthquake and higher commodity and oil prices, so why did Britain have slower growth than any other country in the G7 except Japan? Why do we have higher inflation than any other country except Estonia? It was the Chancellor’s decision to raise VAT in January that pushed up fuel and petrol prices, hit confidence and reduced real living standards for families. He then blamed the euro crisis, but the fact is that our economic recovery was choked off a year ago, well before the recent crisis.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has downgraded its growth forecast for Britain in 2011, but it has upgraded its growth forecast for the euro area. Only Greece, Portugal, Denmark, Cyprus and Slovenia have grown more slowly than Britain over the past year. As the OBR figures show, the fact is that it is the lack of domestic demand that has slowed down our economy. It is only net trade, the contribution of exports, that has kept us out of recession over the past year. If the eurozone countries fail to sort out their problems, that will of course have an impact, which is why it is important that they are sorted out. Far from the eurozone dragging us down this year, it is actually the euro that has been buoying us up.

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman speaks of asking for, or demanding, an apology, but an apology is required from Labour Members. To give credit where it is due, however, I remember that when he was Secretary of State for Education he looked for savings in that area. But he did not do so right across the board. Page 15 of the OBR report shows that in 2008 borrowing went up to £68 billion, that in 2009 £152 billion was required, and that in 2010 another £145 billion was required: spending, spending, spending. It was not until this Government came in that such spending was halted.

[Ed Balls]

The hon. Gentleman makes an important point: there was a major financial crisis that hit Britain and all countries throughout the world. The Chancellor always wants to blame Labour, as he does the snow, the earthquake and the euro area.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to participate in this important debate. I hope that the usual channels will recognise the demand for and interest in it and perhaps provide more time in future.

I begin with a challenge to the Labour party about the observations made in the report by the Office for Budget Responsibility. I very much welcome the existence of that body and its report. If the Opposition accept the figures in the report, they must also pay heed to its analysis. I believe they have accepted the numbers, but not the reality behind them. The OBR does not predict a recession here in Britain, according to page 15 of the report, but there is a caveat that has been stressed by Members of all parties about what is going to happen in the eurozone. It is hoped that the right decisions will be made to bring confidence back to that area.

The report provides three reasons why the OBR has had to provide an updated position. The first is rising commodity and food prices, the second is that the scale of the boom and bust under the last Government had a greater impact on the economy than previously thought, and the third is that the euro crisis has increased instability and uncertainty, which has affected household and business spending.

There is also uncertainty about the liquidity of Europe’s banks, which a number of Members have mentioned. There is an irony there, because in 2008-09 it was Governments who were bailing out the banks, but today the banks are called upon to buy bonds and bail out Governments. However, many banks across Europe are unable to do that. They are desperately trying to repair their exposure to the debt, and bond issuance across Europe is actually dropping. In the past six months, just €17 billion was traded, compared with €120 billion in the same period in the previous year. Big decisions need to be taken about the role of the European Central Bank, eurobonds and so on if we are to create the stability that is required.

I am grateful that our Government are in a different position from others, because they acted to keep the deficit down, cut the size of the public sector and help the private sector to grow through active enterprise policies and a reduction in corporation tax. They also took difficult decisions about universities and tuition fees, to ensure that we remain competitive in the long term.

I turn briefly, in the very short time that I have, to the economic growth figures as measured by GDP. The shadow Chancellor is keen on suggesting that the economy is flatlining. He uses funny gestures to say so—I wish he would stop them, because he looks a little bit like a cross between a lazy cricket umpire and Mr Tickle. I do not believe he understands the difference between the economy flatlining and growth. It is like the difference between velocity and acceleration—if someone jumps out of a plane, they fall at 9.98 metres per second squared. That number does not change, but as anyone who has done it knows, they do accelerate. It is the same with economic growth. The economy is growing year on year, as long as the figure is above zero. Labour need to recognise that. If they accept the figures in the OBR report, they must also accept that the outlook is that we can expect to see growth of up to 3% by 2015. If the Opposition say the economy is flatlining, are they saying that China’s economy is flatlining with a growth level of 10%? Of course it is not; it is growing year on year.

My final point is about the national debt and the responsibility that the last Government ignored. That is the public sector net borrowing requirement—the difference between what we raise in tax receipts and what we spend on all the Government Departments. In Labour’s last year in office, the Government put £513 billion into the pot but took £670 billion out, leading to a deficit of £157 billion. That was just one year. In 2002, the books balanced and there was not a problem, but the year after they borrowed £19 billion, and then it went up to £30 billion. Year after year, they accumulated a massive debt, which led us to the position that we are in at the moment.

It was not until this Government came to power that we said, “Stop. We cannot keep adding to this debt crisis.” By the time the election took place, we were perilously close to losing our triple A rating, and we inherited the highest structural deficit of any major economy in the world. I am very pleased that we have got a grip on the economy now. Many quotations have been given in the debate, and I will give one final one, from Margaret Thatcher, who said that sooner or later, every Labour Government run out of UK taxpayers’ money to spend. That is clearly what happened under the last Government.