Transport and the Economy

Stephen Hammond Excerpts

Tuesday 28th February 2012 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon) (Con)]

It is a great honour to follow the Chair of the Select Committee, the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside (Mrs Ellman).

I want to comment principally on the “Transport and the Economy” report. The report recognises, of course, that for many years transport was like Cinderella, as it rarely came to the fore and was not regarded as one of the key parts of Government policy. That was true for many years, but there has been a sea change and there is recognition both in the report and in the actions of the previous Government and this Government that the performance of an economy can be directly related to transport.

Transport can undoubtedly boost growth and increase competitiveness, and one of the best policy interventions a Government can make is to ensure that the infrastructure allows industry to thrive. Some of the infrastructure not only benefits industry but improves the quality of life of a number of our citizens, although clearly it can be provided in a number of ways that differ not only physically but financially. Efficient infrastructure will allow efficient and cost-effective movement around national, regional, sub-regional and local networks—I think that that is implicitly recognised in the report. The fact that transport can boost the economy—the report questions its efficacy in some areas, which I wish to discuss later—is also self-evident.

Any report that links transport and the economy is welcome, but having read both the report and the Government’s response and having listened very carefully to the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside, I would like to address one or two areas of slight concern and some surprise. For instance, as the hon. Lady conceded, we are discussing this report some time after its publication and so a number of its explicit recommendations have, to the Government’s credit, been covered in a number of ways. Indeed, it seemed to me that the Government were already covering a number of the report’s recommendations at the time.

Let me pick out recommendation 5 as an example. It states:

“The Government must explain the nature of the economic solutions that it is seeking to deliver through transport spending and how the schemes that it is supporting will achieve these aims.”

By the time the report had been published, however, the Government had already set out those things through their transport business case. They have also set out quite clearly in their business plan some of their objectives for transport spending, as well as a vision for a transport system that is an engine for economic growth, and they have attempted to provide a greener, cleaner and fairer solution for our communities.

Moreover, during the previous Government's period in office, many of us on both sides of the House recognised that the formula that the Department for Transport was using to analyse a number of its schemes beyond the basic benefit-cost ratio, NATA—the new approach to appraisal—had a number of deficiencies. We should recognise that the Government have set out a more embracing framework for analysing infrastructure spending. Clearly, there are the four areas to consider: the economic case; whether there is commercial viability; whether a scheme is financially affordable; and, perhaps most importantly, whether a scheme is achievable. That sort of framework, beyond what was previously in place, should provide a greater degree of rigour, for there is now more than one test. There are not only the tests in NATA or the benefit-cost ratio but a number of tests which, added together, will give a transparent and more rigorous approach to the analysis of economic transport investment. I hope that such an approach will stay in place for some time, because one of the problems with transport investment has been that for an awfully long period in this country’s history there was complete inconsistency in approaches to what a scheme could deliver. I support what the Minister has put in place, and I hope he will ensure that it is enshrined and embedded for a long period.

I was somewhat surprised at the report’s conclusions about regional strategies and the removal of regional strategic development and development agencies. I listened very carefully to the speech of the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside and I almost intervened, but as I hoped I would have the chance of catching your eye, Madam Deputy Speaker, I saved my remarks. I listened to the hon. Lady’s comments about what regional development agencies were doing for transport spending. However, I think the previous Transport Committee concluded in one of its reports—I forget which one—as did commentators up and down the country, that the variability among what RDAs delivered regarding transport was vast. It is fair to say that what the regional development agency did in the north-west in some of the delivery and spending on transport projects was well appreciated and supported. However, in other parts of the country, particularly the south-west, the RDA was felt to be failing almost everybody it attempted to help.

[Angela Smith (Penistone and Stocksbridge) (Lab)]

Does the hon. Gentleman acknowledge that the arguments and strategies developed by The Northern Way, which brought together three RDAs in the north of England, made a huge contribution to the development of the High Speed 2 project and the northern hub?

[Stephen Hammond]

Indeed I do, and I thank the hon. Lady for making that point because it helps me to make my next point. One thing that this Government have recognised is that, although there was some mix of RDAs, the reality is that a differing of approach in different areas will be the solution.

I also think it is quite clear that the report has prejudged the efficacy of local enterprise partnerships. It seems to me that all the initial evidence, anecdotal though it is because they have been in place for so short a time, shows that they are taking their responsibilities towards transport seriously.

[Mrs Ellman]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his comments. The report reflected the evidence that was given to the Committee. In taking this further, the Prime Minister and the then Secretary of State recognised the potential gap that would be caused by the removal of the previous regional structures. Indeed, efforts are being made to replace them through other means, but the comprehensive picture and the total results of the changes are as yet unclear.

[Stephen Hammond]

Indeed, but the previous solution was a template solution, a one-size-fits-all solution, a “this is the way we must do it” solution, which did not necessarily reflect the economic realities. As the hon. Member for Penistone and Stocksbridge (Angela Smith) pointed out, in the north of England it was not one regional development agency, but a collaboration of three. As I observed earlier, in certain parts of the country structures well below the regional level developed and delivered more efficient transport solutions.

I hope that in reading the report the Minister will not be deflected from the idea that solutions of differing sizes will fit different parts of the country, and that LEPs have been in place for a relatively short time. Just as regional development agencies were able to collaborate and co-operate, there is little doubt that LEPs will be able to do the same. It is also true that in certain parts of the country integrated transport authorities and passenger transport authorities will provide the lead in regional structures. The clear message must be that there are differing appropriate sizes and structures.

[David Mowat]

I agree that the jury is out on LEPs and that the RDAs were not a panacea in this area, but the real point is that neither the RDAs nor the LEPs can compete with the velocity of spending which is so skewed away from the regions and towards London and the south-east. For example, when the Chancellor announces £30 billion of spend, of which 80% was in London, that dwarfs the amount available to the RDAs or the LEPs. The real issue is how we fix that problem, rather than tinkering with the LEPs, which I hope, as I am sure does my hon. Friend, will work in time.

[Stephen Hammond]

I certainly agree with the latter point. It is beyond the scope of my comments this afternoon to go into the differing amounts of regional money. I accept that there clearly is some imbalance in subsidy between varying regions of the country. It is important to analyse what that can deliver and its efficacy. It is interesting to speculate what Crossrail might bring to London in future, as opposed to what the northern hub might bring to the north. I suspect that the benefits of the northern hub might be greater than those of Crossrail. We will wait and see. I am sure the Minister and the DFT will continue to reflect on that.

As a practitioner of the dark art of economics, I know that different economists will always have differing views on everything. Reading the report, I was struck by the comments of the former chief economist at the DFT. Although those may have been made only in response to the question that he was asked, it seemed to me to miss out quite a lot when he said that if one looks at the history of the British economy, it is clear

“how little the underlying rate of economic growth has varied.”

He went on to add that transport had done very little to affect the overall growth rate of the British economy. That seemed to miss out the fact that we have had wildly varying periods across history.

The witness's analysis went back almost 200 years. Over that time, we have had wildly differing levels of infrastructure investment, and there have been periods when the growth rate of the UK economy has been well in excess of the 2% that he mentioned. His analysis also failed to consider the impact of under-investment, which is a well known phenomenon, how that would have dragged down the underlying potential growth rate of the economy even in a period when investment had resumed, and the potential growth rate had there been consistent investment. Although the analysis that Mr Riley presented to the Committee may or may not be valid, it seems to me that it falls foul of the law of averages. I think that the analysis should look at the potential for economic growth with a consistent approach to investment.

[Richard Harrington (Watford) (Con)]

Having listened carefully to my hon. Friend’s argument and seen some of the evidence that was given to the Committee, it seems to me that, although it could be argued that investment in transport might not be such a direct factor in economic growth, we must also consider what would happen if we did not make that investment and this country fell further behind, which I think would lead to economic shrinkage.

[Stephen Hammond]

I thank my hon. Friend, who more than eloquently makes the absolutely correct point—the final point in my analysis of the economic situation—about the economic analysis presented by Mr Riley.

One of the other learned gentlemen who gave evidence, Professor Goodwin, spoke of the potential for investment not to be transformational, but to be strategic—I am not sure whether he was playing with semantics. He did not like the word “transformational” but said that there was an element of strategy—I think “strategic” is the word he used. He is right that there has been a continued over-egging of the ability of certain single projects to produce the sort of result that some people hope for.

However, if we look at the sheer size of certain schemes and the investment that this and previous Governments have made that complements and adds to what is already in place, and/or if we look at the smarter changes and smarter choices in transport packages, we will see that there is a real chance for transport and infrastructure investment to be transformational. I suspect that some of the moves on work travel packages, which aim to increase access to work, and some of the major electrification projects, which are combined with other minor schemes in parts of the south-west, will in five or six years’ time be considered transformational. In that regard, the evidence given to the Committee probably fails to recognise transport’s ability to be transformational and, more importantly, to enable economic growth.

Moreover, the point that neither of those two learned gentlemen discussed—this is where I disagree with the analysis of the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside—is that if transport is part of a cluster of other investments, including increases in education, access to work, economic development zones and others, its ability to contribute to the potential for economic growth is far in excess of what that would have been had the investment been made on its own. A number of people will have made a better analysis of the cluster theory than I have, but that is broadly what it says. Yet again, if transport is combined with other Government policies, its ability to have a significant impact should not be underestimated.

I will finish with a few other remarks. I warmly welcome and support the conclusion that using transport to support and stimulate the economy and to attempt to reduce regional economic disparities is surely right. The test of the Government in that regard must be whether they are showing any understanding of those challenges. In a time when the key overriding economic priority must be to reduce the economic deficit and ensure that the public finances are put on a more stable profile, this Government are undertaking a number of measures which recognise those challenges and provide economic support in relation to it. We have seen that, significantly, through the Minister’s sponsorship of several local transport plans and investment programmes, and they are having on a small scale quite a huge impact on bus routes, local transport—in terms of local rail—and other issues.

Equally, the support for major projects throughout the regions, such as the northern hub, which has been mentioned, the electrification of the south-west main line and the investment in the east coast main line over the past 10 years, strikes me as sending a clear message that this Government recognise the need to maintain transport infrastructure spend.

As the Chairman of the Transport Committee pointed out, the Department for Transport has done relatively well from the overall comprehensive spending review debate, and that represents the Government’s understanding of the need for and importance of transport infrastructure.

I have spoken principally about rail in my last few remarks, but it is clear also that we neglect at our peril the need to maintain and upgrade our roads, and some smaller road schemes will have a bigger impact than some major, strategic ones, so the £3 billion that the Government are putting into local road schemes over four years is likely to have a positive impact on local, regional and overall economic growth.

I welcome the report, which has sponsored a debate about transport and the economy. I welcome also the Government having evidenced by their actions their understanding of the need for infrastructure in order to support economic growth and the quality of life of our citizens. I am sure that the Minister, in his winding-up remarks, will say that this is not just the start but a continuing policy of the Government.