Independent Sentencing Review

Shabana Mahmood Excerpts

Thursday 22nd May 2025 Written Statements

[The Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice (Shabana Mahmood)]

Today, the independent sentencing review published its findings and recommendations. The review was chaired by the right hon. David Gauke alongside a panel of experts, including a former Lord Chief Justice, and representatives from the police, prisons, probation and victims’ rights organisations. The Government are grateful for its recommendations, and I will ensure a copy of the review is deposited in the Libraries of both Houses.

This statement sets out the Government’s in-principle response. But this review must be set in its proper context. This Government inherited a prison system at the point of crisis. Our prisons are, once again, running out of space. If our prisons collapse, courts would be forced to suspend trials, the police would have to stop making arrests, and crime would go unpunished. It is shameful that, in this day and age, we are confronted by this crisis once more. The reasons are clear—the last Government added just 500 places to our prison estate in 14 years, while at the same time, sentence lengths rose. As a result, the prison population is now rising by 3,000 each year and we are heading back towards zero capacity. It falls to this Government to end this cycle of crisis.

That starts by building prisons. Last week, I announced £4.7 billion for prison building, putting us on track to hit 14,000 prison places by 2031. This is the largest expansion of the prison estate since the Victorian era. However, we cannot build our way out of this crisis. Even though we are building as quickly as we can, we expect demand for prison places to outstrip supply by 9,500 in early 2028.

It was in that context that I commissioned the independent sentencing review. Its task was clear—to ensure that the country must always have the prison places it needs, and that there must always be prison spaces for dangerous offenders. At the same time, I asked the review to address the fact that our prisons too often create better criminals, not better citizens. Instead of cutting crime, they are breeding grounds for it. The panel of experts have followed the evidence and looked at examples from countries across the world. Today, I set out an initial response—with further detail to follow once legislation is placed before the House.

The report’s central recommendation is to move to a three-part sentence called the “earned progression model”. The Government accept this in principle. Under this model, an offender will not necessarily leave prison at an automatic point. Instead, their release date will be determined by their behaviour. If they follow prison rules, they will earn earlier release. If they do not, they will be locked up for longer.

This echoes the model I witnessed in Texas earlier this year, which has cut crime and brought its prison population under control. Under this new model, offenders serving standard determinate sentences with an automatic release of 40% or 50% will now earn their release. The earliest possible release will be at the one third mark, with additional days added for bad behaviour. The review has suggested a new maximum of 50%, but for those who behave excessively badly, I will not place an upper limit beyond their full sentence.

For those serving standard determinate sentences with an automatic release point of 67%, their earliest possible release will be 50%. Again, for those who behave excessively badly, I will not set an upper limit.

We have rejected the recommendation to change the sentence structure for extended determinate sentences

The review also suggested that those serving extended determinate sentences should also earn an earlier release. This we will not accept. Judges give extended sentences to those they consider dangerous, with Parole Board hearings happening no earlier than two-thirds of the way through the custodial sentence. I will not change that. Furthermore, I can also confirm that no sentences being served for terror offences will be eligible for earlier release from prison.

We will increase investment in our Probation Service

In the second part of the progression model, offenders will enter a period of “intensive supervision”. This will see more offenders tagged and close management from probation. The Government will therefore significantly increase its funding—by the final year of the spending review period, probation’s annual £1.6 billion spend will rise by up to £700 million. This will allow us to tag and monitor tens of thousands more offenders.

We will standardise the length of recall to prison

If offenders do not comply with the conditions of their release, the sentencing review has suggested that recall to prison should be capped at 56 days. We have agreed to this policy, in principle, though the precise details will be placed before the House when we legislate.

In the final stage of the three-part sentence, offenders could still be recalled if a new offence is committed, and I will also ensure that the most serious offenders continue to be subject to strict conditions.

We will reduce the use of short sentences and increase suspended sentences

The review also recommends a reduction in the use of short prison sentences. A compelling case for doing so has been proposed in this House many times. In the most recent data, nearly 60% of those sentenced to a prison sentence of 12 months or less reoffended within a year. With reoffending rates for those who receive community sentences consistently lower, we must ask whether alternative forms of punishment would make the public safer.

It is important, however, to note that the review recommends a reduction in short sentences—not an abolition. It is right that judges retain the discretion to hand down short sentences in exceptional circumstances. We will continue to ensure courts have access to thorough risk assessments for domestic abuse and stalking cases. In addition, breaches of protective orders linked to violence against women and girls will be excluded.

The review also recommends an extension of the length of custodial sentences that can be suspended from two years to three years. During this period, the prospect of prison time hangs over an offender, should they break any of the conditions imposed upon them. Again, we accept this recommendation.

We will make community sentences tougher

The recommendations set out above will see more community punishment. For that reason, it is essential that community punishment works. The review recommends a series of measures to make community punishment tougher and to force offenders to pay back to those they have harmed. We will consider new financial penalties which could see offenders’ assets seized, even if they are not proven to be linked to crime, and expanding the use of punishments such as travel and driving bans that will curtail an offenders’ liberty.

We also accept the recommendation to expand intensive supervision courts. These courts impose tough conditions, including treatment requirements, that tackle the root causes of prolific offending. In these courts, offenders are regularly brought before a judge to monitor compliance with the conditions set by the courts. This leaves the prospect of prison hanging over them.

However, I believe community punishment must be tougher still. Unpaid work must pay back. Therefore, I will shortly bring together business leaders to explore a model where offenders work for them and a salary is paid not to the offender but used for the good of victims. I will also work with local authorities to determine how unpaid work teams could give back to their communities, whether that be filling potholes or cleaning rubbish.

The number of women in prison will reduce

I also invited David Gauke to consider cohorts this Government believe require particular focus, and I welcome his recommendations on female offenders. Around two thirds of female offenders receive short sentences and around the same number are victims of domestic abusers. I am pleased to note that the review’s recommendation on short, deferred and suspended sentences will reduce the number of women in prison.

We will make it easier and quicker to send foreign national offenders back to their country of origin

I also asked David Gauke to consider how we tackle foreign national offenders. Today, our deportation rate is ahead of the last Government’s. I welcome the recommendations to make it quicker and easier to deport foreign criminals. Under the existing scheme, foreign offenders are sent back to their country of origin after serving 50% of the custodial sentence. We will bring this down to 30%. We will also conduct further work with the Home Office on how we can deport foreign prisoners serving less than three years as soon as possible after sentencing.

We will expand the pilot of medication to manage problematic sexual arousal for sex offenders

I also asked the review to consider how we manage sex offenders. The review has recommended that we continue a pilot of so-called “medication to manage problematic sexual arousal”. I will go further than this, with a national roll-out beginning in two regions, covering 20 prisons. I am also exploring whether mandating the approach is possible. It is, of course, vital that this approach is taken alongside psychological interventions that target other causes of offending, like asserting power and control.

We will ensure our justice system serves victims

When discussing these issues, it is too easy to focus on how we punish offenders when we should be talking more about victims. I welcome the recommendations to improve the way the system serves victims. Everything I am announcing today is in pursuit of a justice system that serves victims. If our prisons collapse, it is victims who pay the price. By cutting reoffending, we will have fewer victims in future. However, there is also more we must do to support victims today.

The review recommends a number of important measures, including better identifying domestic abusers at sentencing so that we can monitor and manage them.

I also welcome the recommendation to expand the use of domestic abuse specialist courts, where trained staff support victims. To improve transparency in the system, we will extend a pilot in which free sentencing transcripts are provided to victims of rape and serious sexual offences. Again, I want to go further than the review recommends to better support victims. Exclusion zones are an important protective tool, preventing offenders from entering areas where victims might be, but these can place greater limits on victims than they do offenders. I want to change this: locking offenders down to specific areas so that victims know that they are safe wherever else they want to go.

This review sets out major reform. In appointing David Gauke, a former Conservative Lord Chancellor, to conduct this review I hoped to show that two politicians from different political traditions can agree on the reforms that our justice system requires. To end this cycle of crisis we must not only build prisons on a historic scale, deport foreign nationals faster than ever, and speed up our courts, but reform criminal sentencing.

These reforms are designed to ensure that we never again find ourselves in the prison capacity crisis which this Government has faced, and will ensure that we never again run out of prison places for dangerous offenders.

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