Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill (Thirteenth sitting)

Sean Woodcock Excerpts

Committee stage
Tuesday 25th February 2025 Public Bill Committees

[Naz Shah]

The crux for me is that at Second Reading, when the Bill was voted on, many Members cited that one of the central planks to that debate at the time was the six-month prognosis. The amendment would increase that to 12 months. As I have said, my concerns are that we are only three months on from that conversation and we are already trying to expand the Bill, which is why I would not support the amendment. I have said quite a bit on amendment 234, so I will leave it.

I will now speak to amendment 48, which I tabled. Under the current wording of the Bill, a person is terminally ill if their death

“can reasonably be expected within 6 months.”

My amendment would change that so that for a person to be considered terminally ill their death would have to be

“expected with reasonable certainty within 6 months, even if the person were to undergo all recommended treatment”.

One of the risks that confronts the Bill is that of misdiagnosis. That is not some remote possibility. Let me go into detail. As hon. Members know from the evidence brought before the Committee, prognosis is not a precise science. Even with physical illnesses, determining life expectancy is highly unreliable. Government data from the Department for Work and Pensions reveals that one in five people given six months to live are still alive after three years. A study spanning 16 years found that doctors wrongly predict how long terminally ill patients will survive in half of cases. Out of 6,495 patients who were predicted to die within six to 12 months, more than half—3,516, to be precise—lived longer than expected. If the Government themselves cannot accurately determine terminal illness for benefits, how can we rely on such predictions to justify ending lives?

Studies cited in written evidence submitted to the Committee have found that clinicians are routinely inconsistent and inaccurate in their prognostic assessments, often underestimating survival. Professor Katherine Sleeman, a palliative care specialist, underlined that point in her evidence to the Committee. Doctors face considerable difficulty in prognosing whether somebody is in the last six months of their life. Professor Sleeman cites studies based on large samples of patients for whom doctors prognosed life expectancy. The studies found that 47% of the patients whom they predicted to have six months to live in fact lived for longer than that—in some cases considerably longer.

I would argue that there is a danger in using the standard of prognosis currently in the Bill. The current research into doctors’ prognoses indicates that almost half of their estimates that a patient has six months to live are incorrect. We do not want people to choose assisted dying on the basis that they have only six months to live when a very high proportion of them will in fact live longer if they are not given assistance to die by taking a lethal drug or drugs.

My amendment would hold doctors to a higher standard of certainty. Under that measure, they would be explicitly held to prognosing that death would occur with “reasonable certainty” within six months, and that that would be true even if the patient underwent all recommended treatment.

[Sean Woodcock (Banbury) (Lab)]

I think we all accept that prognosis is quite difficult, but one reason why I think this is fundamentally important is that a member of my constituency Labour party was given a prognosis of 12 months in 2012. Last year, they were out delivering leaflets for me in the general election. That is why it is so important that we make sure we get this right. I am sure that my hon. Friend has examples of her own. Is that what is guiding her to press this amendment?

[Naz Shah]

It is absolutely what is guiding me. I am sure we all know people who were told that they had six months to live and have lived a lot longer. We have heard stories of people who were told that they had six months to live and lived beyond 20 years more. We have heard lots of tragic cases, for example in the world of Dr Jamilla Hussain, that would really benefit from the Bill’s being available to them. But equally, there are other families whose loved ones have survived—and not just survived, but thrived for years and years. In fact, a close friend of mine, who happens to be a constituent of my hon. Friend the Member for Spen Valley, was diagnosed not to live very long. It was an emotional time for her daughters. Eighteen and a half years later, she is still alive, well and thriving.