Prevention of Nuclear Proliferation

Rory Stewart Excerpts

Tuesday 13th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Rory Stewart (Penrith and The Border) (Con)]

In the debate about Iran, we tend to be presented with two pictures of the country: either it represents an extreme existential threat to national security, in which case any response, however aggressive, is justified; or it is not a threat at all, and therefore we do not need to do anything.

The truth is of course more complicated and tragic. Iran poses a significant threat to the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States, but our options are limited. There is not time in a five-minute speech to talk about the issues that the hon. Member for Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn) raised, but it is true that Iran is a highly complex and fragmented society. There is an elite, particularly in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz, who are liberal, western-friendly and progressive, but there is also an extremely conservative and isolated rural population, who provide the support base for Ahmadinejad. There is no doubt at all, however, that Iran is a priority.

Many things in which the House has become involved have not been priorities. In recent debates, we have become involved in everything from Somalia to Mauritania, and we have exaggerated the importance of Afghanistan, but Iran clearly matters—in terms of its connection to terrorism, its nuclear bomb, rights and regional stability. There is no greater potential force for regional stability or instability than Iran, but we must face the fact that our current policy of sanctions, though rational and wise, is designed to delay the development of a bomb; and we must face the fact that there is a very high probability of Iran eventually developing a bomb. It may well develop a bomb even if an Islamist Government are not in place, because an atomic bomb has become a source of national pride for many people going well beyond the Islamist supporters.

What is our appropriate response to that threat? We should continue to do the things that we are doing at the moment. First, we should ensure that we have a clear, consistent policy towards Iran. That means that we do not wish to appease the Iranian Government, or to give any impression at all that our sympathies lie with that Government. We need to be robust in our defence of Iran’s regional neighbours, because the primary threat that will be posed by an Iran in possession of a nuclear bomb, however erratic and eccentric its Government are, is unlikely to be the bomb’s deployment; it is more likely to be a considerable increase in Iran’s prestige and in its threat towards its neighbours through terrorism or border disputes.

We must also, however, do things that we are not doing enough at the moment. One is to recognise that because the problem is primarily political, the Foreign Office and our armed forces must invest more and more in area expertise and linguistic expertise in relation to Iran because that will become more and more important—either in deterring some of our allies from unwise precipitate action or in helping us support our regional neighbours.

Secondly, it would make enormous sense to diversify our energy supply. Some 30% of the oil on which western Europe and the United States depend comes through the strait of Hormuz. That is far too much. Iran has a stranglehold on us, but we can overcome it through the smart deployments of new routes of delivering oil and gas to Europe and the United Kingdom.

Finally—a new idea in the last 30 seconds—we need to change our relationship with Shi’a communities around the Arab region and in Pakistan. Too often, we have acted as though Shi’a communities are natural allies of Iran, but there is no reason for them to be so. There is no reason why Britain cannot use its history and knowledge to develop a more constructive and productive relationship with those communities. If we can get that right, continue to invest in the financial sanctions and measures that we are already taking and develop the three areas that I have identified, we can move away from a policy of lurching from extreme aggression to inaction and find a principled, moderate and passionate response.