Census (Local Government Funding)

Robert Neill Excerpts

Tuesday 4th September 2012 Westminster Hall

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government (Robert Neill)]

It is a pleasure, as always, to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Hollobone. I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster (Mark Field) for raising this issue, which is important for his constituents and generally. I recognise, as do the Government, that it is important to get the most accurate census data possible, because they are a key element that feeds into the distribution of public funding. As I will explain, they are not the only element, but they are important, so I understand his concerns.

I agree with and accept his analysis that it is more difficult to conduct a census in an inner-city area with population churn such as Westminster than in some parts of the country. I hope that I can demonstrate that efforts have been made to take that on board. It is worth starting with the situation that confronted us after the 2001 census, when there were concerns and steps were taken by the Office for National Statistics, which is a body independent of Ministers, to improve the methodology and quality assurance underpinning the figures.

Since 2001, as my hon. Friend recognised, considerable effort has been made to improve census returns, as has been demonstrated. He is right that particular resource was put into Westminster to reflect the difficulties, resulting in a significant increase in the response rate. Although it is less than in many authorities, the gap has diminished considerably. The response rate in Westminster in 2011 was 85%, compared with 66% in 2001. Both those responsible for the census and those on the city council are to be congratulated on the hard work that they did collaboratively to achieve that. I hope that gives a better starting point.

Generally, the 2001 census figures have been welcomed by local authorities. There have been a small number of areas—Westminster is one of them—where issues of concern have been raised.

[Mark Field]

I appreciate that these issues are sensitive and that the Minister will therefore not necessarily want to name each and every local authority, but would it be fair to say that the local authorities that have expressed concern tend to be urban and therefore have the particular characteristics I referred to in my speech?

[Robert Neill]

Some, but not exclusively—some are inner city authorities, but some are district authorities. There may be other causes of churn, which we will continue to look at. Other urban authorities—for example, Newham—have welcomed what they regard as an improvement in methodology. I recognise that particular circumstances apply to each case, but it is worth putting the Westminster situation into that broader context. Where there are issues, ONS is working collaboratively with those authorities who have sought clarification. Westminster is one of those authorities, and a meeting recently took place between the officials of Westminster city council and ONS. Westminster—I hope I can put this fairly—has said that it would like to consider its position further, in light of the discussions that have taken place. Of course, ONS stands ready to continue those discussions, as does my Department.

It has always been our intention—given the nature of a census count, there are certain caveats—to use the most up-to-date and nationally consistent data available. We are consulting on proposals for the basis of calculating the next local government finance settlement. The consultation will close on 24 September, and I know that Westminster council will respond to it in detail. Population is one figure. As you will know from your local government experience, Mr Hollobone, a number of other factors are churned into the regression analysis—the bane of all of us who deal with local government finance—and the product then emerges. As my hon. Friend says, the Government intend to continue the protections of floor damping—we have made it clear that that will be the case.

We have consulted on the proposal to use the interim 2011 census base population projections. I confirm that it is the intention for them to be released by ONS on 28 September—they will be available in good time for use in the settlement. Of course, other factors will have to be taken into consideration: assessments of relative need and resources, as you will know, Mr Hollobone; the operation of the floor damping; and, because we are setting up a baseline for the new system of retained business rates, the calculation of the tariffs and the top-ups that will apply for the reset period. It is our intention not to reset those baselines until 2020 at the earliest, subject to wholly exceptional circumstances. The new system will be an incentive for go-ahead authorities such as Westminster—I am the first to recognise that Westminster is a flagship authority in many respects—and an incentive for those local authorities to drive growth in their area over the period of the seven-year reset period. It is estimated that this new means of financing local government, with 50% of the growth in the business rate being retained, will increase gross domestic product by approximately £10 billion. There will also be a safety net, which will protect local authorities from unexpected volatility in their rate base.

On quality assurance—a particular issue that has been discussed with Westminster—we have seen considerable improvement in the census take-up. The issues raised by my hon. Friend were discussed with officials of the city council and ONS—the officials in my Department will obviously want to continue to discuss them with ONS, too—to ensure that they were taken on board. As my hon. Friend said, what we have is not in fact a decline, necessarily, in the population, but an estimate based on the census that is less than a projection anticipated it to be. Therefore, the projection must be treated with some caveats, too.

After the 2001 census, there was an independent review of the means of quality assessment used to double-check the reliability of the census figures. The independent body suggested 23 actions to improve quality assurance, all of which were taken on board by ONS. Significant steps have been made to improve the quality, and other measures can be looked at. For example, my hon. Friend referred to patient registers. He is right to say that they must be treated with caution. I agree that the level and risk of inflation may vary from place to place, which is something that we can discuss. Across London, it is thought that GP registers can be inflated by approximately 8%. I am not saying that that is necessarily the figure in Westminster, but that is a reason why one must approach them with caution. Although that is a factor, there is not one single figure that can be used as an alternative benchmark.

It is worth saying that we have done checks, with that caveat, against the council tax data. The census estimates are in line with those sources, if allowance is made for some known differences, including an allowance made for the very high proportion of short-term residents, of which, as my hon. Friend says, Westminster has particular numbers. There is also a question concerning second residences.

The Department believes that this approach represents a considerable improvement on the methodology of the previous census. In the Westminster scenario, I agree that it is always difficult to get as high a return as one would wish—I think my own local authority’s return is approximately 95%; it is approximately 85% in Westminster. None the less, in sheer numerical terms the number of questionnaires returned increased from 134,200 in 2001 to 186,800 in 2011—a 39% increase thanks to the work both of ONS and Westminster city council. I hope that that demonstrates that we are going in the right direction—it has generally been well received.

The constructive way forward is this: I will take away the specific points raised by my hon. Friend and I will liaise with him. Westminster city council is going to come to ONS directly after it has reflected on their conversation. That liaison will continue, because we want to see what can be done further to explain and clarify apparent or potential differences between the census and other data sets. ONS remains confident that improved methodology more accurately captures the figure on the ground. Of course, the census is in effect a snapshot taken on one day. I understand my hon. Friend’s concerns. As a former leader of the Conservative group on the London assembly, I raised the issue when I was wearing that hat. The issue ongoing in London.

[Mark Field]

On the liaison to which the Minister referred, will he confirm that we can expect something in writing? I accept, given the representations I have made today, that he and his officials will want to consider this. I also accept that, in allowing a particular change to be made in relation to Westminster, there is a risk of setting a precedent. Can I expect a formal letter in relation to the liaison to which he referred?

[Robert Neill]

I am very happy to do that. My hon. Friend makes an important point. We must have methodology that can be applied consistently across the country. I can say both to him and to the hon. Member for Westminster North (Ms Buck) that if I remain in a position to do so, I am more than happy to continue to discuss this ongoing issue with them.